Will Modi-Trump meet have a positive impact on Bangladesh situation?

The forthcoming meeting between PM Narendra Modi and President Donald Trump scheduled for February 12-13 in Washington DC, during which the situation in Bangladesh may come up for discussion, has raised concerns in Dhaka, say observers.

The meeting between the two leaders comes in the wake of the destruction of the historic residence of Mujibur Rahman by an enraged mob, widely believed to have been instigated by the interim government headed by Mohammed Yunus.

There have also been widespread concerns about the breakdown of the law-and-order situation in the country, imperilling the lives of common people, especially Bangladesh’s Hindus and other religious minorities.

Also Read: Bangladesh polls to be held by December, Yunus assures BNP

The government has launched Operation Devil Hunt to clean up the system of criminal elements and improve the situation in Dhaka and other cities and towns.

But since its timing coincides with the Modi-Trump meeting in Washington, observers believe it has been launched to spruce up its image before the new American presidency and impress one of its biggest development supporters.

No improvement in economic, security situations

Yunus, a Nobel Laureate and renowned economist, was brought in to head the interim government in the wake of Sheikh Hasina’s forced ouster from power and the country to improve the economy and stabilise the country.

But though six months have passed, he has failed to improve either the economic or the security situation, raising serious concerns about what is likely to happen if they deteriorate further.

Also Read: Over 1,300 held in Bangladesh under nationwide Operation Devil Hunt

The inflation rate is still hovering around 10 per cent, raising prices of food and other essential items, though their supply has stabilised. However, since inflation and food prices remain high, there has been no relief for people, particularly the poorer sections.

The failing law-and-order situation has made it worse, with regular strikes and demonstrations in the cities, and rising crime rates. Serious concerns have also been raised about women’s safety in Dhaka and other places.

Dependent on IMF, western donors

Bangladesh is already under a USD 4.7-billion loan programme from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to ease its economic hardships since the Covid pandemic. But it is also dependent on financial and development assistance from its western donors.

However, with Trump’s decision to withhold future funds for development, there can be further hardship for Bangladesh. The US is also one of the biggest markets for Bangladeshi garments.

Moreover, unlike Joe Biden’s presidency and the bonhomie that Yunus enjoyed with the Democrats, there are concerns in Dhaka on how its bilateral relations are likely to pan out under the Trump administration.

Also Read: In Bangladesh, Islamists have unleashed a Yunus model of mobocracy

Soon after his electoral victory, Trump had raised concerns about the fate of the Hindus and other religious minorities in Bangladesh. He had also made it clear that he was looking forward to working with his “dear friend Modi” to improve the situation.

In his first presidency, Trump was happy to follow India’s advice and lead in formulating policies for South Asia. It is not clear whether he will continue to do so even in his current term. But India is likely to be his bet to deal with China’s growing presence in Bangladesh and other countries in South Asia.

Rise of Islamists

Hasina was forced out of power and the country after a student protest turned into a people’s insurrection against her on August 5.

But since the departure of Bangladesh’s longest-serving leader, there has been a steady rise of the Islamists in the country. Many observers have raised concerns about the way Islamists were now running the country and trying to formulate its key policies.

Three student leaders who came into prominence during the July protest are now in advisory roles in the interim administration. All three are widely believed to have affiliation with the Islamist parties like the Jamaat-e-Islami and the Islami Andolon.

Also Read: Bangladesh has become a land of terrorists and fighters: Sheikh Hasina lashes out

Their attempt has been to strip Bangladesh of Mujibur Rahman, one of the most revered figures of the country for leading the nation’s liberation in 1971.

But riding on the prevalent anti-Hasina sentiment in the country, the Islamists are also trying to erase the contribution of Mujib and Hasina, describing them as fascist leaders and holding them responsible for all the problems in Bangladesh.

Their portraits were removed from all government buildings and statues were damaged since the interim government was put in place.

Secular forces resist demand for new Constitution

The students in the administration have now demanded a new constitution to replace the 1972 constitution that is in force. The demand has been strongly resisted by the secular forces in the country who see it as an attempt to wipe out the legacy of the 1971 liberation and push the country towards an Islamic State.

The demolition of Mujib’s residence in Dhaka’s Dhanmondi, considered as a historic legacy of the liberation movement, outraged wide sections of people in Bangladesh and India. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party, the traditional opposition to Hasina’s Awami League, has also condemned the act.

The destruction of the building by an enraged mob came after Hasina alleged that she fled Dhaka to escape an assassination attempt hatched by Yunus and his supporters.

Also Read: Power shifts in Myanmar, Bangladesh stymie India’s Act East Policy

Interim govt’s complicity

But many people see this as a criminal act that was instigated by those in the interim government. The fact that several other buildings of Awami League leaders in different parts of the country were subsequently demolished exposed the current administration's complicity in the act as no attempts were made to save them after the Dhanmondi incident.

The current drive to weed out criminal elements in the country is also being seen as a drive against Awami League supporters in an attempt to marginalise them further.

Yunus, who was brought in to play an impartial role and stabilise the country after the unrest that ousted Hasina, has been a big disappointment in his current role.

He has remained a silent spectator through all the vandalism that took place in recent months, raising suspicion that the criminal acts were being carried out with his approval.

India-Bangladesh ties

The bilateral relations between India and Bangladesh have become taut since Hasina’s departure and the regular anti-Indian diatribe that has been coming out of Dhaka.

Hardliners in India have also been overactive in matching the rhetoric with their anti-Bangladesh commentaries and thus straining the ties between the two neighbours further.

The Modi government sent its foreign secretary Vikram Misri to Dhaka last year to reassure the leadership there that India wanted improved ties between the two countries. Though he was received warmly by senior Bangladeshi officials, a series of incidents appear to have brought back the strains.

Also Read: India's plan to secure border with Bangladesh goes awry

India is seriously concerned about the rise of the Islamists in Dhaka and the fear that this could lead to radicalisation of Bangladesh and instability in the wider region, especially its vulnerable northeastern region.

Moreover, India is also concerned about the investment it has made in Bangladesh, particularly in the connectivity projects that would have helped it to integrate the northeastern states better with the rest of India.

An election in Bangladesh might be held at the end of the year, as Yunus has indicated. An elected government, especially if it is headed by the BNP, could help to improve and sustain a better relation between the two countries.

But the outcome of the Modi-Trump meeting could give an indication on how things are likely to pan out in Bangladesh and what role India would play to secure its own borders and help in stabilising the region.