Bihar’s coalition arithmetic gets more complex ahead of elections

In the country’s one-party-dominated Hindi belt, Bihar remains a notable exception. It is a state where caste politics often matches, if not surpasses, Hindutva in influence, and coalition rule has long been the pattern. The 243-seat Bihar Assembly will go to the polls in two phases, on November 6 and 11, and 2025 promises to be no different.

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There is scarcely a player, national or regional, who is not in the fray in Bihar. From Nitish Kumar’s ruling JD(U) and the BJP to the RJD and the Congress; from the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) to Jan Suraaj and the Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM). Contestants range from the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen to the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP). The latest to throw its hat in the ring is the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).

Coalitions define Bihar politics

While the 1990s marked the rise of coalition politics in Bihar, largely driven by the emergence of the Janata Dal and its successor parties, the state has also witnessed occasional phases of single-party dominance, most notably in 1995, when Lalu Prasad’s Janata Dal secured a comfortable majority.

Since 1997, however, Bihar has been firmly under the spell of coalition politics. Beginning in 2005, the state has been governed by a succession of alliance governments, primarily the partnership between Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and the BJP, and the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) led by the RJD, which also includes the Congress.

What makes the political contest in Bihar particularly intriguing is the almost even division of its vote base. No single party can realistically hope to secure power on its own, and alliances are essential to every player’s strategy. To form a government in the 243-member Legislative Assembly, a party or coalition must cross the halfway mark of 122 seats.

In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, the RJD emerged as the single largest party with 75 seats, followed closely by the BJP with 74, while JD(U) secured 43. The Congress won 19 seats, CPI(ML) 12, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen five, and HAM and VIP four each, demonstrating how difficult it is for a single party to form a government in the state.

Regional players hold sway

Consider the data from Bihar’s Chief Electoral Officer: in the 2020 Assembly elections, the BJP secured just over 15% of the total votes, while the JD(U) garnered a little above 20%. The RJD emerged as the single largest party in terms of vote share, with just under 24% of the electorate backing it. Among their allies, the NDA’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) commanded over 11% of the vote, while the Congress, expected to perform better in 2025, managed over 6%.

In other words, Bihar has more regional players in the fray than most other states, except possibly for UP. With its dynamic political environment, multiple alliances and regional parties vying for influence, the chances of one political party dominating decisively came to an end with the Congress rule in 1989.

Today, Bihar’s political landscape is shaped largely by the ongoing rivalry between two formidable alliances: the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance). The JD(U), led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, continues to be one of the most influential forces in the state, often serving as the pivot of coalition governments.

The RJD, helmed by Lalu Prasad and his son Tejashwi Yadav, leads the Mahagathbandhan and remains a major challenger. The BJP, a principal component of the NDA and a dominant national party, retains significant clout in Bihar and is backed by crucial allies such as the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) under Chirag Paswan and the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) headed by Jitan Ram Manjhi.

On the other side of the spectrum is the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation (CPI-ML), a member of the Mahagathbandhan, which won two Lok Sabha seats in the 2024 general elections.

Jan Suraaj alters dynamics

Now, add to that former poll strategist Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, which released its first list of 51 candidates this week for the Bihar assembly elections. He has announced that the Jan Suraaj Party will contest all 243 seats in the state.

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Political analyst Prabhat Singh said, “Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj platform is also contesting the elections and could impact the vote dynamics by appealing to voter fatigue with traditional politics. It can’t be ruled out.”

Understandably, both the ruling NDA and the Opposition Mahagathbandhan are engaged in difficult negotiations over seat arrangements. Allies in both camps are reportedly jostling for more favourable terms, though the NDA appears closer to finalising its deal.

NDA juggles seat demands

Negotiations within the NDA are proving complex, largely due to the improved bargaining position of Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) after the 2024 general elections. Smaller parties are also pressing for more seats.

However, Bihar BJP president Dilip Jaiswal announced on October 10 that the NDA had reached a broad consensus and that an official announcement was imminent, possibly around October 13. The JD(U) and BJP, the two major NDA constituents, are said to be in sync, though the JD(U) is now in a stronger position than it was during the 2020 Assembly polls.

The Chirag Paswan-led LJP has reportedly been offered 22–26 seats, short of its demand for 35–40. Paswan has indicated that talks are in the “final stages” and are proceeding positively. Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAMS has been offered 7–8 seats, though it is demanding 15. Manjhi expressed his frustration with a cryptic post but publicly reiterated his desire for enough seats to be recognised.

Led by Upendra Kushwaha, the Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) is also a partner in the NDA. Kushwaha has publicly warned against any internal sabotage.

Grand Alliance faces friction

On the other hand, the Opposition Mahagathbandhan is also engaged in tough seat-sharing negotiations, primarily centered on the distribution of seats among the RJD, Congress, and Left parties.

On October 7, reports from Patna suggested that the Grand Alliance had finalised its seat-sharing arrangement, with the RJD taking the lead. Despite the reported finalisation, the Congress is said to be facing a significant cut in its seat allocation compared to the 50 seats it was given in 2020. Congress leaders have previously made a pitch for “quality seats.”

Reports indicate that the RJD and Left parties are urging the Congress and VIP to focus on winnable seats rather than demanding a higher number. The leader of the VIP, Mukesh Sahani, is said to have joined the Mahagathbandhan, adding another voice to the negotiations.

Rising contenders muddy waters

Beyond the two main coalitions, other political entities are also vying for a share of the electoral pie. The extent to which this pie is being divided can be seen from the Aam Aadmi Party’s (AAP) surprise announcement that it will contest all 243 Assembly seats in Bihar, positioning itself as an alternative model of governance.

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“We have an approved model of growth and governance. The work done by AAP is being discussed across the country,” Bihar AAP in-charge Ajesh Yadav told the media.

With multiple allies staking strong claims, some reports suggest that friendly contests between allies could take place in certain constituencies, making it even more challenging for political observers to predict the outcome.