Discussion: Will Centre impose President's rule in Manipur?

Manipur Chief Minister N Biren Singh resigned on Sunday (February 9), setting off a leadership crisis within the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). While his exit was expected due to mounting pressure from within the party and public discontent, finding his successor remains a formidable challenge. BJP’s central leadership is now in the process of building a consensus among MLAs, with speculation that President’s rule may be imposed if no agreement is reached. On the latest episode of The Federal's Capital Beat, experts discuss what is next for Manipur.

Political uncertainty grips Manipur

According to Raj Bhavan’s official statement, Governor Ajay Kumar Bhalla has asked Singh to remain in office until a replacement is finalised. Meanwhile, sources suggest that Singh, while resigning, recommended suspending the Assembly, enabling MLAs to agree on a successor without immediate legislative pressure.

Also read: Crisis management plan enforced after Biren Singh’s resignation

However, no single leader currently commands a clear majority among party MLAs, increasing the likelihood of President’s rule. Political analyst Suhas Chakma, Director of the Rights and Risk Analysis Group (RRAG), believes Singh’s exit is the most significant development in Manipur since the start of the ethnic conflict.

BJP’s search for a successor

Senior journalist Samir Purkayastha of The Federal reported that the BJP’s Northeast Coordinator, Sambit Patra, rushed to Imphal to mediate talks between Singh’s supporters and dissident MLAs. Despite extensive discussions, no consensus has been reached.

Also read: What lies ahead of Biren Singh who lived on the razor’s edge?

Sources indicate that the BJP’s central leadership has summoned all MLAs to New Delhi for a meeting on February 12, to be chaired by Union Home Minister Amit Shah. Even seven BJP-affiliated Kuki MLAs and three independents, who previously supported the government, are expected to attend.

Despite surviving multiple political crises, Singh had lost the confidence of both the public and his MLAs. His divisive rhetoric and failure to curb ethnic violence made him a liability for the party.

Also read: PM Modi, Amit Shah must own up responsibility for Manipur violence: Kanimozhi

“Singh had become the most polarising figure in Manipur,” Chakma said, emphasising that his removal may pave the way for reconciliation between the Meitei and Kuki communities. Furthermore, his alleged involvement in inflammatory speeches and leaked audio tapes currently under forensic examination may have influenced the BJP’s decision to remove him.

Impact of Singh’s exit

Purkayastha highlighted the changing mood among the public. Unlike Singh’s first attempt to resign in 2023, which sparked mass protests from his supporters, this time, there was no major outcry. The lack of resistance suggests that Singh had already lost crucial backing from the Meitei community.

Adding to the turmoil, an armoury was looted in Thoubal district just hours after Singh’s resignation. However, the local population strongly condemned the looting, signalling a shift in public sentiment. “People want peace now,” Purkayastha noted, indicating that Singh’s leadership was no longer seen as a stabilising force.

With no clear consensus candidate, the BJP faces the dilemma of imposing President’s rule. Chakma argues that the central leadership is reluctant to do so, as it would place direct responsibility for Manipur’s deteriorating situation on the Modi government.

“If President’s rule is imposed, the Centre will be held accountable for any unrest,” he said. This move could also embolden the Kuki community’s demand for greater autonomy, complicating matters further.

Who will succeed Singh?

Several names have surfaced as Singh's potential successors, including Yumnam Khemchand Singh (Assembly Speaker), Sarada Devi (BJP’s State President), Thongam Biswajit Singh (Minister in Singh’s Cabinet), Govindas Konthoujam (Panchayati Raj Minister). Among these, Devi appears to be a compromise candidate, as she is considered close to Singh but also acceptable to the dissidents.

While Singh’s resignation is a significant turning point, Manipur’s political uncertainty is far from over. If a new leader is not chosen swiftly, the BJP risks deepening internal divisions, and the Central government may be forced to impose direct rule. Meanwhile, the ethnic conflict continues, and it remains to be seen whether Singh’s exit will bring the much-needed peace Manipur desperately seeks.

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