Blue wave, red flags: How Iran War, rising prices cost Trump the midterms

It has been a veritable tsunami for the Democrats. They have flipped both the House of Representatives and the Senate, delivering a stunning rebuke to Donald Trump. Much of this has less to do with what the Democrats have to offer than with a vote against rising fuel prices, triggered by Trump’s war of choice against Iran.

Ironically, during his presidential campaign, Trump had also focused on the rising cost of living under Joe Biden. This time, rising prices have come back to bite the Republicans. The loss of Republican candidates in traditional bastions like Texas, Kansas, North and South Carolina, tell their own story.

A heavy price for Iran war

Trump is paying a heavy price for his uncalled for war with Iran.A president who campaigned on ending wars and lowering prices has been punished for a war that has disrupted global energy supplies.

Even Trump loyalists on Fox News concede that the Iran war and its consequences were a major factor in Republican losses. "I think 100 per cent, I don't think there's any doubt about it," Sean Hannity conceded when asked if the war and the subsequent rise in diesel and fuel costs played a part in the defeat.

But the economy was not the only reason for Republican defeat. While Americans appreciated Trump’s border policy, his decision to ensure that illegal foreigners are kept out, the cruelty and unprofessional handling of arresting and detaining alleged illegal foreigners, had alienated ordinary citizens.

The trigger happy Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents who fired and killed innocents, led to widespread anger. Latinos, Blacks and many South Asians turned away from Trump and his party and shifted back to Democrats.

"Trump nationalised and personalised the election and thus owns the defeat, and its scale," Philip Golup, professor in the American University in Paris, told The Federal.

Despite the big money spent by Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, other tech billionaires failed to halt the Democratic wave. Trump, who campaigned relentlessly for his party and asked voters to consider that he was on the ballot, has, since the results, tried to distance himself from the polls.

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“TRUMP WASN’T ON THE BALLOT, AND SHUTDOWN, WERE THE TWO REASONS THAT REPUBLICANS LOST ELECTIONS TONIGHT, according to pollsters,” Trump posted on Truth Social.

Authority takes a hit

Trump’s political authority has taken a hit. With the Democrats in control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives, he will no longer have the freedom to govern as he pleases.

It is very likely that Congress will start investigations on both the Trump family as well as people like Pete Hegseth, his secretary of War and other senior cabinet colleagues.

While Congress oversight can constrain many of Trump’s pet domestic initiatives, there is not much it can do on foreign policy. An executive president is given a long rope by the Constitution. He can be questioned but not stopped. He has room to manoeuvre, so he is likely to concentrate on foreign policy as most lame duck presidents do.

A weakened Trump could become more accommodating towards India or, conversely, adopt a more demanding approach. It remains unclear which direction he will take.

Trump’s temperament will not allow him to step back and simply allow his powers to fade, taking care of his pet architectural projects.

“Will he lash out in a last fit of ageing masculinist rage but using the levers he still retains [military] to escalate war in Iran and elsewhere? We don't know the answers to those questions; but we will soon find out,’’ said Philip Golub.

Also read: Blue wave, Red face: Social media roasts Trump after Democrats sweep midterms

US allies and enemies around the world will be watching what happens next. The new Congress will take oath in January next year, and Trump will have two months to do what he wants.

Will Trump become more unpredictable as he tries to recover political ground? What about tariffs and relations with India? The two countries are said to be in the final stages of wrapping up a bilateral trade deal.

India-US ties

A weakened Trump may become more amenable to India or much more demanding and transactional. No one is sure which way he will go.

Anil Wadhwa, former Indian ambassador to Italy, said Trump may be even more difficult to tackle after his party’s defeat. "The overall trajectory of the US India relationship will drift given the low priority accorded to India by the current administration,’’ he told The Federal.

A lame duck American President over the next two years will rely heavily on executive actions like Section 232 and 301 tariffs . He will want foreign policy gains which are one sided and will double down on the India- US bilateral trade agreement, which is unsigned to claim a major foreign policy success.

Wadhwa believes there will be pressure on agriculture and dairy, which is a no go for India . Hence India will come under immense pressure to sign the uneven trade agreement. "This will be resisted and will cause friction with the US administration," he observed.

Wadhwa said ICE-related enforcement and immigration policies will enjoy bipartisan consensus, putting pressure on Indians holding H1B or work visas, students, and IT and related workers from India and around the world.

But Aparna Pande of the Washington-based Hudson Institute, has a different view. “Democrats have long championed close ties with India, have been against high tariffs on friends and allies, and are more hawkish on China,” she said. “Indian American voters have also voted largely for Democrats. So overall the climate will improve for all US allies and partners, including India.

“The Democrats are also likely to seek an early end to the war and any disruption it is causing. However, Democrats are hawkish on Russia so that may remain an issue for India- US relations.”

“Chinese ascendancy on the world stage will continue,” said Panse. “The November 11 Russia-Ukraine talks will be viewed with scepticism and may lead to defiance from Ukraine.

“US allies and adversaries alike will be watching closely to see whether a weakened Trump becomes more unpredictable as he tries to recover political ground. With two years left in the White House, the question is whether the election will temper his ambitions or make him more determined to use the powers he still retains.”

China, Russia and Ukraine

China's growing influence on the world stage is likely to remain a significant geopolitical concern. Meanwhile, the November 11 Russia-Ukraine talks are likely to be viewed with scepticism and could face resistance from Ukraine.

Also read: Why should India worry about US midterm polls? This and other queries answered

US allies and adversaries alike will be watching closely to see how a politically weakened Trump responds to his party's electoral setback. Will he become more unpredictable as he seeks to regain political ground? With two years left in the White House, the key question is whether the electoral setback will temper his ambitions or make him more determined to exercise the executive powers at his disposal.