Nagaon bypoll: A make-or-break test for a struggling Assam Congress

Barely two months after suffering its worst-ever defeat in Assam, the Congress-led Opposition is staring at perhaps its biggest challenge yet—proving that it still matters in the state’s politics.

The Congress had contested the Assembly elections in April in alliance with the CPI(M), Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) and Raijor Dal. Of the four partners, only the Congress and Raijor Dal managed to win seats, with the Congress securing 19 and Raijor Dal two. Both the AJP and CPI(M) failed to open their accounts.

The alliance, however, appears to be under strain after the elections, with the Akhil Gogoi-led Raijor Dal increasingly taking an adversarial stand against the Congress both inside and outside the Assembly.

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The Assembly election redrew Assam’s political map. The BJP stormed back to power with 82 seats, securing a solo majority for the first time in the state, while the Congress was reduced to just 19 seats. Together with allies such as the Raijor Dal, the Opposition managed only around 21 seats, underlining the scale of its setback.

All eyes on bypoll

Now, all eyes are on the upcoming Nagaon Lok Sabha by-election, which many believe will offer the first indication of whether the Congress can stop its political slide or whether the BJP’s dominance is set to deepen further.

The bypoll was necessitated after former Congress MP Pradyut Bordoloi joined the BJP, won the Dispur Assembly seat and vacated the Nagaon parliamentary constituency. Once considered a Congress bastion, Nagaon had elected Bordoloi in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls with more than 50 per cent of the votes in the Muslim-majority constituency.

For the BJP, winning Nagaon would be another major political statement and further evidence of its growing reach across Assam. For the Congress, the stakes are much higher. A poor showing could accelerate defections, deepen frustration among workers and raise fresh questions over the party’s future in the state.

Roots of the decline

Journalist Siba Gogoi from Nazira offered an even starker assessment. “There is no space for the Congress or any Opposition as long as Himanta Biswa Sarma remains in power. The defeats of top leaders such as Gaurav Gogoi, Debabrata Saikia and Ripun Bora indicate that the Opposition has lost its grassroots support base,” he told The Federal.

According to him, the party’s communication with ordinary people remains weak, and it lacks an effective electoral strategy.

Senior Congress leaders, including Assam Pradesh Congress Committee (APCC) president Gaurav Gogoi, who himself lost the Jorhat Assembly seat, have accepted responsibility for the electoral debacle. They have promised to play the role of a proactive Opposition by taking up issues such as unemployment, corruption and alleged communal politics.

Series of setbacks

But political observers say the Congress's problems go far beyond one election defeat.

Since 2014, the party has suffered a series of setbacks, resulting in organisational fatigue and internal divisions. Its support among non-minority voters has steadily eroded, and attempts to stitch together alliances with regional parties have failed to create a convincing alternative to Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s highly aggressive political style.

Political observers believe the Congress’s biggest weakness lies in its organisational structure. The party has often returned to power riding favourable political waves rather than through sustained grassroots work, they say.

State leaders are accused of losing touch with district-, block- and booth-level workers over the years, creating a disconnect between the leadership and the cadre.

Rebuilding from the grassroots

Political analysts also point out that television debates and social media campaigns cannot substitute for ground-level mobilisation. Unless the party launches sustained agitations on public issues, they argue, rebuilding public confidence will remain difficult.

Senior Congress spokesperson Happy Gogoi admitted that the road ahead would not be easy but insisted that the party was committed to rebuilding itself.

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“Assam’s democracy needs a strong Opposition, and the Congress is committed to rebuilding itself to fulfil that responsibility. The Congress has a deep-rooted history in Assam and continues to have dedicated workers across every district,” she said.

According to Gogoi, the party is focusing on issues that directly affect people, including unemployment, inflation, farmers' distress, education, healthcare, corruption and the protection of Assam’s identity and resources.

“We are strengthening our organisation from the booth level, encouraging young leadership and working closely with like-minded democratic forces to present a credible and united alternative. Meetings are being held in preparation for the upcoming by-election to the Nagaon Lok Sabha seat,” Gogoi said. She expressed confidence that the party could bounce back.

“No political party remains dominant forever in a democracy. If we continue to work sincerely, remain united and earn the trust of the electorate, the Congress can certainly emerge as a strong and credible alternative,” she added.

Obstacles to Opposition revival

Former Student Federation of India leader Nayanjyoti Bhuyan feels the BJP's dominance may not last indefinitely, but says the Opposition still has a long way to go.

“I don’t think right-wing forces will continue to dominate for another 10 years in India. Congress has just started reconnecting with people on the ground, and that effort needs to be intensified,” he said.

Bhuyan also pointed to internal weaknesses within the main opposition party. “There are still many Congress leaders whose capitalist attitude and corrupt politics have become a major hindrance to building a movement against the government. I am hopeful of a restructuring of regional forces, and Congress should support regional politics,” he said.

Behind the poor showing

Political analyst Prasenjit Biswas believes the Opposition’s present crisis is rooted in its inability to build a united front and effectively raise issues that affect ordinary people.

Biswas noted that while the Congress-led alliance had secured more votes than the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the picture changed dramatically in the 2026 polls. “Due to delimitation and polarisation in the 2026 Assembly elections, the Congress and its allies could not secure more than 30 per cent of the votes polled, while the BJP alone got 38 per cent and nearly 50 per cent along with its allies,” he said.

Biswas said the Opposition had failed to strongly raise issues such as corruption, unemployment, floods, waterlogging and rising prices of essential commodities, all of which directly affected the poor and middle classes. He also said internal squabbles centred around senior Congress leader Rakibul Hussain and his family could have a direct impact on the party’s prospects in the Nagaon by-poll.

Beyond alliances and arithmetic

Political commentator Rana Khan sees little immediate hope for the Opposition unless it undertakes serious introspection. “Congress is confused and directionless. Opposition unity exists largely on paper, and there is no clear understanding of the people’s issues. Mere slogans cannot overcome the present situation,” he said.

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Senior advocate Sangeeta Sarma said the Opposition was standing at a crucial juncture and would need genuine reforms if it wanted to emerge as a credible challenger. “The BJP's dominance today is rooted in effective leadership, disciplined organisation and its ability to shape the political narrative. However, no political dominance is permanent. Rising public expectations and changing voter aspirations always create opportunities for alternative voices,” she said.

She believes the Nagaon by-election will be an important test of whether the Opposition can reconnect with voters and demonstrate its relevance once again. Success, she said, will depend not merely on alliances but on the ability to address key issues such as employment, economic growth, social harmony and the aspirations of the youth.

Assam may still have space for a strong Opposition, but for the Congress and its allies, revival will require much more than electoral arithmetic. It will demand organisational rebuilding, fresh leadership and a clear political vision capable of winning back the confidence of voters.