China’s meet with Bangladesh, Pakistan sparks concern; dialogue with Dhaka crucial

A trilateral meeting among China, Bangladesh, and Pakistan in China’s Kunming earlier this month has raised concern in the foreign policy establishment in New Delhi.

India’s relations with all the three neighbours are currently under strain.

The trilateral meeting coincided with a lunch hosted by the US President Donald Trump for the Pakistani army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir at the White House, ignoring India’s global campaign to isolate Munir as the mastermind of the Pahalgam terrorist attack in April.

Under the Trump administration, it remains uncertain what its policy on Bangladesh is likely to be. It is also not clear how it will regard the challenge from China in the Indo-Pacific region, especially its growing influence in Dhaka.

Bangladesh called it an informal meeting. But Pakistan claimed this was the inauguration of the trilateral arrangement among the three countries.

Delhi’s worry

The Kunming meeting of the three countries, held at the foreign secretary level, for better cooperation on issues of trade, agriculture, maritime affairs, culture, and education has the potential of being raised to a higher political level and deeper engagement.

If that happens, there is worry in Delhi that the nature of the trilateral meeting in future may not limit itself to trade and related issues but expand into areas of more strategic importance.

Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said India was keeping a close watch on the developments.

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“We maintain a constant watch on the developments in our neighbourhood that have a bearing on our interests and security, our relations with individual countries, while they stand on their own footing, taking into account the evolving context as well,” Jaiswal said.

The foreign affairs advisor for the interim government in Bangladesh, Touhid Hossain, said the trilateral meeting was not meant to build an alliance targeting any third country.

India’s estranged neighbours

A benign explanation of the trilateral meeting will see the Iran-Israel war leading to the blockage of the Hormuz Strait and its fallout on China, Bangladesh, and Pakistan affecting their oil supply as the backdrop of the Kunming meeting.

All the three Asian countries are dependent on the oil and gas supply from the Gulf. A disruption in the supply, raising the oil price, will affect them adversely, particularly Bangladesh and Pakistan, who are struggling to put their economies back on track.

Therefore, the meeting of the three countries may be creating the platform for closer and better cooperation with each other to deal with an impending oil crisis.

On the other hand, relations of all three countries with India in recent months have been severely strained and this may have been the main driver of bringing them together in the Chinese city.

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“The holding of the first Sino-Pakistani-Bangladeshi trilateral summit indicates the growing alignment among the three states and the possibility of their formation of a geopolitical triangle,” says Himel Rahman who teaches International Relations in Bangladesh’s Gopalganj Science and Technology University.

India and Pakistan were engaged in a brief but intense conflict in May in the wake of the Pahalgam terrorist attack. It was brought to an end after the director general of military operations of both countries agreed on a ceasefire, ending the conflict.

It was followed by a campaign war by the two countries at the global level when India and Pakistan sent delegations to different world capitals to build opinion in their favour on the conflict.

While an easy calm currently prevails in India-Pakistan relations, Delhi is engaged with Beijing to remove the strains from their ties after a four-year military stand-off at the Line of Actual Control — their informal border.

Tussle for influence

But India and China have also been engaged in a tussle for establishing influence over the South Asian countries for the past few years.

China succeeded in enlarging its footprint significantly by investing billions of dollars in infrastructure development in South Asia under its Belt and Road Initiative.

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Despite India’s misgivings about the BRI and Chinese intentions, most of its neighbours happily accepted Beijing’s offer and joined its initiative to improve their infrastructure.

China also happens to be the largest trade partner and investor for South Asian countries. It is the main weapons’ supplier to both Pakistan and Bangladesh.

India and Sheikh Hasina

India’s relations with Bangladesh had nosedived from August last year after Sheikh Hasina, the longest-serving leader, was ousted from power and driven out of the country when a student protest turned into a public insurrection. She has since then been in India.

Hasina was the closest ally of India in South Asia, and stood out as an exception in the face of strong anti-Indian sentiments in the region.

Her long rule had been one of the most stable and cooperative phases in India-Bangladesh relations. During her time, a number of projects to improve connectivity between the two countries and the region were agreed upon. There was also an overall improvement in bilateral relations and enhanced engagement between the people of the two countries.

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Most importantly, under Hasina, India’s eastern flank was secured as she either drove out or marginalised anti-Indian forces in her country who were active earlier.

Though Hasina maintained good relations with China, a country she regarded as Bangladesh’s development partner, she gave priority to India’s interests.

As a result, Pakistan’s presence and role in the country was totally marginalised.

Since her departure, Pakistan has begun to make inroads in Bangladesh. In December, Pakistani ships entered Bangladeshi ports carrying rice, sugar, and other commodities for the first time since 1971. There has been a flurry of visits in recent months between the two sides for cooperation at various levels and areas, including political, security, military, and intelligence-sharing.

Bad memories of the 1960s

Observers point out that the proposed trilateral cooperation between the three countries is not new and an attempt to revive a policy they pursued in the 1960s.

China’s presence in the region had grown significantly in the years following its war with India over their disputed border in 1962. China and Pakistan had come closer to activate Pakistan’s Eastern province — which is now Bangladesh — to foment trouble for India in its north-eastern region.

Under Mao Zedong’s ideological overdrive, rebels of Mizoram, Nagaland, and Manipur were encouraged to foment trouble in their respective states to put Delhi on the defensive.

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Though China’s orientation has now changed to economic integration of the region, its strategic goal of establishing itself as the premier power in Asia remains.

As the Narendra Modi government struggles to bring stability and peace in Manipur, the coming together of the three countries has become a cause for concern to India.

Meanwhile, the growth of Islamists in Bangladesh and Myanmar’s unravelling in the ongoing fight between the army, democratic forces, and the ethnic armed groups have raised the spectre of instability and violence in the region.

Bangladesh election and renewed engagement

Under the current situation, a parliamentary election in Bangladesh due in early 2026 remains the best solution, say observers.

An elected government with a stated policy for normalising the situation in Bangladesh by rejuvenating the economy and stabilising the country will also be able to rebuild ties with neighbours like India.

India and Bangladesh need each other for their respective development and growth and to bring peace and stability in the region.

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The Indian Parliament’s foreign relations committee has recommended early resumption of engagement with Bangladesh to discuss all issues across the board.

This can at least be the starting point for the government to resume dialogue to put India-Bangladesh ties back on track. A move that is likely to be beneficial for both neighbours.