Why Bangladesh warming up to US's Myanmar plan spells trouble for India

A new great game is reportedly afoot in India’s eastern backyard, deepening New Delhi’s Myanmar conundrum.

Bangladesh’s interim government is actively considering a proposal from UN Secretary General António Guterres for creating a “humanitarian aid corridor” to Myanmar through the Cox’s Bazar area.

Guterres made the proposal during his four-day visit to Bangladesh last month amid reports of “western volunteers” providing training and even fighting alongside anti-coup “resistance forces” against Myanmar’s military Junta.

Myanmar’s charge

Myanmar's ruling regime has accused foreign powers of backing rebel groups. Military Junta chief General Min Aung Hlaing was recently quoted by media as saying that "some powerful nations" were helping armed groups fighting the military.

Such allegations and a flurry of recent developments in Bangladesh with ramification to Myanmar raise suspicion about the actual purpose of the corridor.

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Reports emanating from Bangladesh suggest that the corridor might actually be used by the US to provide “logistic support” to the Arakan Army (AA) in its fight against Myanmar’s military junta.

Worries for India

Such a move will have a larger implication for India, which is seen as an ally of the military Junta by the anti-coup forces.

India’s crucial Kaladan Multi-modal Transit Transport Project (KMTTP) is located in Rakhine state. It aims to connect Myanmar’s Sittwe Port to India’s northeastern state of Mizoram through a multimodal transportation network, including sea, river and road routes.

Reports emanating from Bangladesh suggest the US might actually use the corridor to provide 'logistic support' to Arakan Army in its fight against Myanmar’s military junta.

Sittwe is among a few areas in Rakhine still under Junta control. The crucial question for India is how long Junta will be able to hold on to it, particularly if the AA started getting “external support” via Bangladesh.

India’s attempt to engage with the AA has not been very successful so far despite some back-channel meetings in New Delhi, Aizawl and Bangkok, informed sources told The Federal. India’s interest will take a hit if Sittwe falls to the AA. That is Delhi's immediate concern.

Moreover, if any ethnic militant group of western Myanmar becomes too powerful, it will have serious security implications for India in the long run.

Myanmar rebels, India’s northeast

Myanmar’s ethnic militants have a history of working closely with the insurgent groups of Northeast India.

Even in the current conflict in Manipur, the involvement of Myanmar-based ethnic groups was not ruled out. Indian insurgent groups are getting arms through their counterparts in Myanmar, security sources in India alleged.

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“More the arms and ammunition in the hands of Myanmar rebels, more will be the supply to northeast militants,” said a security official based in Mizoram.

“Even if India helps Arakans to break away from Myanmar, it is most likely to turn against India 20 or 30 years down the line. Look at the Bangladesh experience,” policy analyst and geopolitical expert N Sathiya Moorthy told The Federal.

He added that the best option for India would have been to play a peacemaker between the Junta and the rebel groups. But after its experience with the LTTE in Sri Lanka, India will not like to engage again in peace-making, Moorthy was quick to add.

China factor

The critical problem for India is that the AA could not be completely ignored either given its growing influence in the Rakhine and even in adjoining Chin state.

The AA, the ethnic armed outfit representing the Arakan people who dominates the Rakhine state, has seized control of 13 of the 17 townships and almost all rural areas in the state, including the entire 271-km border with Bangladesh.

The state capital Sittwe and the port city of Kyaukpyu are the only significant townships the Junta is still holding on in the area, allegedly with Chinese support.

Kyaukpyu is a strategic township for China. It is building a Special Economic Zone, two parallel oil and gas pipelines and a deep-sea port there as part of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) which aims to connect its land-locked Yunnan province with the Indian Ocean.

Beijing's dilemma

The corridor is envisaged as its strategic alternative to reduce dependency on the Malacca Strait for energy imports.

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Around 80 per cent of China's oil imports traverse through the narrow shipping channel between the Malay Peninsula to the northeast and the Indonesian island of Sumatra to the southwest, connecting the South China Sea (Pacific Ocean) with the Indian Ocean.

The narrow strait poses a strategic vulnerability for Beijing in the event of a conflict with the US Navy. The hypothetical vulnerability is described by geo-political experts as China’s "Malacca dilemma".

Hasina’s claim

This explains the strategic importance of the CMEC for China and the US’ interest in Rakhine.

Bangladesh’s deposed prime minister Sheikh Hasina claimed that she could have stayed in power had she allowed America to set up a military base in Bangladesh’s Saint Martin Island to dominate the Bay of Bengal.

The tiny island of three-square kilometres is located some nine kilometres south of the Cox's Bazar-Teknaf peninsula, bordering Myanmar’s Rakhine state.

US general in Bangladesh

Her claim is getting credence after the proposal for the corridor has been mooted.

There are indications of a bigger plan involving the corridor than just sending humanitarian aids, a Dhaka-based security expert close to the previous regime said, wishing anonymity.

Last month, Lt Gen Joel P Vowell, deputy commanding general, US Army Pacific, visited Bangladesh close on the heels of the UN chief's corridor proposal.

Myanmar security issues were reportedly on the top of his agenda during discussions with Bangladeshi officials.

Bangladesh’s newly appointed National Security Adviser Khalilur Rahman’s hush-hush tour to Army’s Ramu-based 10th Division, informed sources said, were also linked to the larger military plan involving the corridor.

Incidentally, Rahman is also Chief Advisor’s High Representative on the Rohingya Problem and Priority Issues.

The corridor games

The division based in Cox's Bazar Ramu will have to play an important role if military support is to be provided in the Rakhine area from Bangladesh. Only a select top officials in the army were reportedly aware of the “confidential visit”.

Also read | Manipur ground report: Armed groups, Myanmar factor hinder return to peace

Many in Bangladesh also claim that appointment of former ambassador to Myanmar Mohammad Sufiur Rahman on April 20 as a special assistant to chief adviser Muhammad Yunus is part of the larger strategy involving Myanmar.

Rahman has been given the executive authority of the ministry of foreign affairs to assist the chief adviser under the Rules of Business, 1996. It will curtail the power of the interim government’s foreign affairs Adviser Md Touhid Hossain. The sources said his power has been clipped as he is not very enthusiastic about the corridor plan.

Bangladesh and Rohingyas

Bangladesh’s interim government is considering providing the so-called humanitarian corridor hoping it will create conditions for Rohingya repatriation to Rakhine state.

Over 13 lakh Rohingyas have taken refuge in Bangladesh’s fleeing ethnic cleansing in Myanmar.

Now that the AA controls a large swathe of the Rakhine state and the entire border with Bangladesh, the repatriation will not be possible without the approval of the armed group. Therefore, the Yunus government is trying to cosy up to the AA.

China and India

Yunus, who is known for his proximity with the US establishments, however will have to be very careful indulging the US in Rakhine as it will antagonise China.

Incidentally, governor of China’s Yunnan province Wang Yubo called on Yunus on April 21, the concluding day of his three-day visit to Bangladesh.

That the governor of the Yunnan province rushed to Bangladesh itself is significant in the current context.

It shows Bangladesh’s growing strategic importance vis-à-vis Myanmar. On the other hand, it also implies India’s diminishing clout in its immediate neighbourhood.