India–US defence framework: A hollow renewal amid shifting alliances

The framework for the India-US Major Defence Partnership signed by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and his US counterpart Pete Hegseth this week reiterates the two sides’ commitment to work closely and jointly meet the security challenges posed in the Indo-Pacific region.

Given the current state of the Indo-US ties, the defence partnership not only sounds hollow but also raises questions on how effective American support will be to India in the event a serious threat is posed by Pakistan, its traditional adversary in South Asia, or China, its potential long-term threat in the region.

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“There is nothing new in the agreement; it is a renewal of the earlier ones,” said a member of the Indian National Security Council. The framework, originally signed in 2005 and renewed in 2015, has now been extended once again by Singh and Hegseth.

Defence as diplomatic glue

The current one is the third edition of the so-called defence partnership signed between the two defence ministers on the sidelines of the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting-Plus at Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia.

“Defence will remain the major pillar of our partnership to keep a free, open, and rules-based Indo-Pacific,” said Singh.

The framework has provisions for “responding jointly to common security threats, deter conflicts and uphold the dignity and sovereignty of regional partners while laying the foundation for peace and prosperity in the region.”

The two sides already have the COMPACT Initiative (Catalysing Opportunities for Military Partnership, Accelerated Commerce and Technology) agreement that will, in effect, allow the Americans to sell expensive and sophisticated weapons to India, one of the most lucrative defence markets in the world.

Shifting sands of strategy

In 2005, the framework was signed under the Congress-led UPA government of Manmohan Singh with George W Bush’s Republican government that was keen to deepen and strengthen ties with the world’s biggest democracy.

Pranab Mukherjee, as the Indian defence minister, signed the framework partnership with US defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld. India had opened its defence market for the purchase of American weapons in the run-up to the civil nuclear agreement with the United States that India was extremely keen on signing.

In 2015, it was renewed under the BJP-led NDA government of Narendra Modi with Democratic President Barack Obama. Obama had changed the US’ pivot from the West to Asia with China’s rise in mind and was keen to have India as a close partner. The Indian prime minister was equally interested in building a strong partnership with the US.

But after 10 years, the third edition of the defence partnership between the US and India was signed under fundamentally changed circumstances in terms of Indo-US bilateral relations and America’s approach towards India’s adversaries – Pakistan and China, and the situation in the Indo-Pacific region.

Geopolitics of shifting alliances

“I don’t think the Chinese are bothered too much with the agreement. They know that both the US and India are just going through the formalities,” said a former secretary-rank Indian diplomat.

He pointed out that, as far as the Chinese weapons are concerned, they had already tested many of them against us during the recent four-day conflict between India and Pakistan, as most of the weapons used against India were of Chinese origin. Beijing had also extended its expertise to the Pakistan army on the use of its sophisticated weapons.

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US President Donald Trump, who in his first term had adversarial relations with both China and Pakistan, has done a fundamental course-correction. Since Operation Sindoor — the brief conflict between India and Pakistan in May, in the aftermath of the Pahalgam terror attack, Trump had adopted a pro-Pakistan position.

The Indian refusal that the US President had mediated to bring the war to an end, apparently angered him, and he went out of his way to woo Pakistan in the recent months.

Within weeks of the war, as India was busy building international opinion against Pakistan, Trump had invited Pakistan army chief Asim Munir to White House for lunch. He indicated to the world that Munir enjoyed his support and confidence, irrespective of India’s attempt to tarnish his image on the world stage.

A few months later, Trump also held a meeting with Pakistan Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif to show the growing proximity between the two governments.

Partnership amid global recalibration

The Indo-US framework agreement was signed amid the much-publicised meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea, where the two leaders reset their ties after months of a strained relationship.

Trump kept the Taiwan issue away from the talks with Xi, much to the surprise of observers who felt it would be a key issue at the meeting. The US President also announced a 10 per cent tariff reduction to signal his intent to build on the positive momentum from his talks with his Chinese counterpart. To emphasise his friendship, he also escorted Xi to his car after the meeting.

Under the current atmosphere, the defence agreement between the US and India, that is largely aimed at China’s aggressive behaviour in the Indo-Pacific, looks totally unrealistic to deal with the emerging situation in the region.

Trump is in no mood to jeopardise his relations with either China or Pakistan at this juncture.

Strained ties, cautious optimism

In recent days, the Modi government has sought to downplay the strain in India–US relations, portraying it as a temporary setback in Delhi–Washington ties. However, there have been no concrete signals from Washington to support that view.

The 50 per cent tariff imposed by the US on Indian goods — primarily over India’s continued purchase of Russian oil — has not yet been withdrawn. India might be convinced to buy more American weapons and open its markets further to accommodate Trump’s demands in the coming weeks.

However, this is unlikely to reassure India’s security establishment, which has long relied on US backing, particularly under the Trump administration, for meaningful support in the event of renewed tensions along its borders with China or Pakistan.

The Modi government’s decision to proceed with renewing the defence agreement is being viewed by observers as an overreach – an attempt to appease Trump and steer bilateral ties back on track.

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Keeping the larger picture in mind, Hegseth’s attempt to rally Asian nations against the ‘spectre of Beijing’ in the Indo-Pacific seems completely out of sync with Trump’s own approach to China.

The US President has made it clear that Xi Jinping is a “great leader of a great country” with whom he wants “a fantastic relationship for a long period of time.”

With the mid-term elections approaching and economic stability at stake, Trump is unlikely to risk unsettling his carefully rebuilt rapport with Beijing.