Why Modi's demographic claims are not based on hard facts

The perceived threat posed to demography by illegal migrants triggered many a mutiny in North East India-- the most recent being the ongoing Meitei-Kuki conflict raging in Manipur.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his latest Independence Day speech, almost nationalised that bugbear, claiming that “infiltrators are snatching away the livelihood of the youth of my country”, an assertion which is based more on hypothesis than hard facts, as analyses of census data would reveal.

Though no concrete statistical evidence exists to support claims of demographic change, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) governments at both the Centre and in the states have persistently raised the issue.

PM's high-powered demography mission

To address the perceived threat, the prime minister announced the establishment of a high-powered demography mission, reviving a similar promise Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman made in her interim budget presented in February last year.

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Modi, however, did not specify the composition or ambit of the mission during his 105-minute speech.

Given the reported victimisation of several Bengali-speaking Indian citizens during the ongoing home ministry-led crackdowns on illegal Bangladeshi and Rohingya migrants, social scientists fear that such a mission could lead to increased harassment of marginalised Indian citizens in the name of detecting intruders.

The census has been pending for over a decade now. And previous censuses did not reflect any abnormal population growth inconsistent with the Muslim community’s birth rate that would suggest an infiltration-induced demographic shift.

“It was a very provocative statement with far-reaching consequences. From West Bengal’s perspective, at least, I can say that, based on our field-level work experiences, the influx of illegal migrants is not as significant as it is projected. This has been highlighted time and again by various studies,” said Ranjit Sur, general secretary of the Association for Protection of Democratic Rights (APDR), one of the oldest human rights organisations of the country.

More importantly, the prime minister’s claim about large-scale infiltration is not backed by hard facts, said Sabir Ahamed, a senior research coordinator with Pratichi Trust, an organisation founded by Nobel laureate Amartya Sen in 1999.

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“The census has been pending for over a decade now. And previous censuses did not reflect any abnormal population growth inconsistent with the Muslim community’s birth rate which would suggest an infiltration-induced demographic shift,” Ahamed said.

The consistency is clearly reflected in the demographic analysis based on subsequent census data of West Bengal, a state the BJP claims has undergone a demographic shift.

Big leap in Bengal's Muslim population

In the first census of independent India conducted in 1951, Muslims made up 19.85 per cent of West Bengal’s total population of 2.63 crore, amounting to over 52 lakh people. By 2011, their share had risen to 27.01 per cent of the state’s 9.13 crore population, with the community numbering approximately 2.47 crore.

The average annual growth rate of the Muslim population in West Bengal from 1951 to 2011 was approximately 2.52 per cent. The total Fertility Rate (TFR) for Muslims was 2.2 births per woman in 2011. Since the growth rate is almost aligned with the TFR, external factors such as infiltration cannot be attributed to the marginal population growth.

Even Bangladesh has a similar fertility rate of 2.3 children per woman, as per the country’s last demographic and health survey done in 2017-18.

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A comparison of the decadal growth rate of Muslims in West Bengal would further debunk the theory of the state being swamped by illegal Muslim migrants. Between 1991 and 2001, the decadal growth rate of the community was 1.64. In the next decade, it slightly dipped to 1.61.

Stating that the prime minister’s concern about infiltration does not align with ground realities, Suhas Chakma, director of the New Delhi-based Rights and Risks Analysis Group, said that such a commission should instead focus on addressing internal demographic challenges.

West Bengal's decadal population growth rate was higher than the national average between 1951 and 1961, presumably because of the post-Partition migration. However, it gradually declined and came close to matching the national rate by 1971. From 1981 onward, West Bengal's growth rate has consistently remained below the national average, with a particularly noticeable gap in 2011.

The decennial population growth rate of West Bengal as per the census data released that year was 13.84 per cent, which is significantly lower than the national figure of 17.7 per cent.

The population projection report of the government of India indicated a decelerating decadal growth rate for West Bengal for the 2011-21 period.

Around 22 lakh people in West Bengal mentioned present-day Bangladesh as their birthplace in the last census. The vast majority of them were Hindus.

The case of Assam

No skewness, suggesting an unabated influx, is observed in the recent empirical data from Assam, either, a state where the issue of illegal migration has triggered several communal riots and continues to fuel the native-settler conflict.

Muslims constituted 24.86 per cent of the state's total population in 1951. It increased to 34.22 per cent in 2011, marking an annual growth rate of around 0.544 per cent.

Assam’s decadal population growth rate declined from 23.01 per cent in 1991 to 16.93 per cent in 2011. Such a decline would not have been possible had there been any massive infiltration.

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Both West Bengal and Assam witnessed higher than national population growth rates in the initial decades after Partition, clearly indicating that any large-scale migration is invariably reflected in the census.

For instance, the population of Assam recorded abnormal spikes in the period between 1911 and 1921 and 1951 and 1961.

In the early 20th century, the British policy of “grow-more-food” encouraged the immigration of landless Bengali Muslim peasants to Assam to bring more area under cultivation. This explains the abnormal growth rate from 1911 to 1921.

There was a surge of migration into West Bengal and Assam following the communal riots in East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) in 1950. This trend was distinctly evident in the census data.

From an all-India perspective, the Muslim population was approximately 3.5 crore in 1951 and grew to 17.2 crore in 2011. Their share of the country’s total population increased from around 10–11 per cent in 1951 to 14.2 per cent in 2011, with an annual growth rate of 2.7 per cent.

India's Muslim fertility rate was 4.4 children per woman in 1992, which declined to 2.4 in 2019. Considering that the average fertility rate of Muslims in India over 27 years was approximately 3.4 children per woman, the annual population growth rate of 2.7 per cent is quite normal.

“Available census data and demographic indicators suggest that the threat being flagged by the prime minister is largely notional, apparently intended to divert public attention from the government's failure in creating employment opportunities,” alleged Sur.

“If we assume, for the sake of argument, that the demographic shift occurred after 2011, then the responsibility lies squarely with the Modi-led government.”

The curious case of working population

According to the India Employment Report 2024, prepared jointly by the Institute for Human Development and the International Labour Organisation, the country’s working population increased from 61 per cent in 2011 to 64 per cent in 2021, and it is projected to reach 65 per cent in 2036. However, the per cent of youth involved in economic activities declined to 37 per cent in 2022.

Stating that the prime minister’s concern about infiltration does not align with ground realities, Suhas Chakma, director of the New Delhi-based Rights and Risks Analysis Group, said that such a commission should instead focus on addressing internal demographic challenges.

“Southern Indian states are facing the issue of an ageing population due to declining fertility rates and rising life expectancy. This has already led to a surge in migration from the north to the south. Any demographic commission should focus on the potential socio-economic challenges that such a demographic shift may bring,” he added.