Modi skips peace conference for G7 summit, but can he evade Russia-Ukraine question?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will leave for Italy on Thursday (June 13) to attend the G7 summit that is being held there between June 13 and 15. However, he will be there only for 24-hours and return home before the summit is officially over.

This will be Modi’s first overseas trip after he was elected prime minister for the third consecutive time, becoming the only second leader in India after Jawaharlal Nehru to do so.

But Modi will not go for the Ukraine Peace Conference in Switzerland, scheduled for June 15 and 16, even though the European countries have been lobbying hard for months to convince him to participate in the peace meet.

Business as usual

Behind both decisions — of attending the G7 summit in Italy and not travelling to Switzerland for the peace conference, Modi is conveying a message to the outside world that despite his recent setback in the parliamentary elections, it will be ‘business as usual’.

The G7 is a grouping of the world’s most industrialised and rich democracies. But a number of other emerging economies in the globe are also invited to attend the summit in its outreach programme. India is one such country.

The G7 summit will be attended by United States’ President Joe Biden, French President Emannuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz, the prime ministers of the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan and Italy as well as other world leaders.

India has participated 11 times in past G7 summits, while Modi has attended five of them. This will be his sixth participation.

G7 Summit – Platform to showcase popularity

But the summit in Italy will be different from the previous ones for Modi. He will be going there for the first time in 10-years as the prime minister heading a coalition government.

However, the host, Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni is an unabashed admirer of Modi and at the summit the Indian prime minister is likely to be accorded a warm welcome not only by her, but also the other world leaders for becoming prime minister for the third consecutive term.

Therefore, the G7 summit provides him with the perfect platform to showcase his importance among the world leaders, in the wake of the BJP losing its majority in Parliament and depending on coalition partners for survival.

By attending the summit, Modi can convey that his popularity among global leaders remains as strong as before and he is still considered an important strategic partner by them.

Stand on Russia-Ukraine war

On the other hand, by skipping the Ukraine Peace Conference and sending an official to attend it, Modi would send the message that he is not siding with the western effort to isolate Russian President Vladimir Putin, though India remains committed to an early peace in Ukraine through diplomacy and dialogue.

At the G7 summit’s outreach programme session, discussion will focus on the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and other economic issues and how all these issues are impacting the world, particularly the Global South.

Modi is likely to stress on the negative impact the conflicts were having on the Global South and will highlight solutions agreed at last year’s G-20 summit under India’ presidency to ameliorate the sufferings of the world’s poor and underprivileged.

Bilateral meetings

The Indian prime minister will also hold a number of meetings on the sidelines of the summit with world leaders that is likely to include Biden, Rishi Sunak and the rulers of UAE and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and some others.

He will also take this opportunity of holding a bilateral meeting with Meloni and the two leaders are likely to review the entire gamut of their strategic partnership and the progress made on the key areas of mutual interest and benefit.

‘Stillborn’ peace conference

Modi’s decision to stay away from the Ukraine Peace Conference in Switzerland has been made easy by a large number of world leaders, not only from the Global South but other countries in the west too, expressing their inability to attend.

According to the organisers of the conference, although invitations had been sent to leaders of over 160 countries, only 70 have so far confirmed participation and most of them are from Europe.

Experts have described the peace conference as “stillborn”. Not only have the organisers kept out Russia from the meeting, it has also been boycotted by other leaders of the BRICS, China, Brazil and South Africa.

Even the US President has decided to skip the meeting and it will be represented by American Vice President Kamala Harris. But even the UN secretary general is also unlikely to come to Switzerland.

This has led observers to wonder how seriously the Swiss effort can be taken where neither Putin, nor Xi Jinping or even Biden is present.

Others argue that the Ukraine Peace Conference was never a serious effort to find peace and end the ongoing conflict. Independent reports have assessed that Russia was winning the war despite the steady supply of sophisticated weapons by the US and European countries to Ukraine.

Therefore, the main aim of the conference was to isolate the Russian President and convince leaders in the Global South, like Modi, to join the western effort to isolate Vladimir Putin globally.

Pressure on Russia

But despite the fact that most leaders decided to stay away from the meeting, the West has now changed tactics and will use the G7 summit as a major platform to reiterate their commitment to isolate Russia to force it to end the war on terms that benefit Ukraine and the West.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky who has personally tried to convince the Indian prime minister to attend the Peace Conference, will also be present in Italy. There is a possibility that he may meet Modi at the summit.

However, despite Modi’s decision to stay away from the Switzerland meeting, observers are keen to follow how India manages to balance its stand of not going against Putin with its commitment for peace and an early resolution of the Ukraine conflict.

Unlike the other members of the BRICS, India is not boycotting the peace conference. But by sending an official for the meeting, it remains to be seen how India manages to stay away from the anti-Russian final document that the Switzerland peace meeting is likely to adopt.