How the India-Australia uranium deal presents a symbol of mutual trust

More than a decade after India and Australia signed a landmark civil nuclear cooperation agreement, the two countries are finally ready to operationalise uranium supplies.

The delay was never merely bureaucratic. It reflected Australia's lingering concerns that uranium exported to India, a non-signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), could somehow find its way into the country's strategic programme.

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Those concerns have gradually given way to a far deeper strategic trust as India and Australia have emerged as close partners in the Indo-Pacific.

Defence ties expand

Today, their defence cooperation has expanded dramatically, with the Joint Declaration on Defence and Security Cooperation, adopted on Thursday (July 9) at the annual summit between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Australian counterpart Anthony Albanese.

Military interoperability, intelligence sharing and maritime domain awareness have added to the heft of the defence relationship. India and Australia are both part of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or Quad, together with the US and Japan.

The long-delayed uranium arrangement is less a commercial transaction than another milestone in a relationship that has evolved into one of Australia's most important strategic partnerships in Asia.

Bilateral trade has grown, economic ties have deepened through the Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement, and cooperation now spans critical minerals, supply chains and maritime security. Against this backdrop, the long-delayed uranium arrangement is less a commercial transaction than another milestone in a relationship that has evolved into one of Australia's most important strategic partnerships in Asia.

If the Quad is the political expression of India-Australia strategic convergence, the uranium deal is perhaps its strongest symbol of mutual trust.

Clean energy plans

Much is being made of the uranium agreement because, after India’s nuclear tests in May 1998, Australia, like the rest of the Western world, came down on India like a ton of bricks. While the agreement on buying uranium from Australia was inked in 2014, it remained on paper.

Meanwhile, India signed deals with Russia, France, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Canada. Australia is the sixth nation from which India will now buy uranium.

Modi said, "We have signed an important agreement today on nuclear energy," adding, "This will...give our clean energy objectives fresh momentum."

"The arrangement facilitates Australian uranium exports to India to help increase the share of non-fossil-fuel power capacity," Albanese said, echoing the former's clean energy claim.

Expert surprised over 'breakthrough'

"It is a good thing that India now has the option to purchase Australian uranium. But the quantities will likely not be big, whenever trade begins, given the present size of India’s civil nuclear infrastructure,’’ said Ian Hall, professor, School of Government and International Relations at Australia’s Griffith University.

"Australia also lacks a civilian nuclear industry. We have no commercial plants. So, beyond uranium, Australia does not have much to offer India in this area," he added. He is surprised that it is being made out as a major breakthrough.

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According to Hall, much more was achieved during this third annual summit than in operationalising uranium supplies.

"The statement on energy security was significant and paralleled a recent one between Australia and Japan. But the defence statement was the most dramatic because it signals much more cooperation at much higher levels of complexity. And quasi-alliance-type consultations in the event of crises,’’ he added.

'Adding strategic prism'

"India and Australia have added a strategic prism to their partnership. Thus, most new initiatives are seen through such a prism, often leading to faster decision-making even in areas considered outside the pale some five years ago,’’ said Gurjit Singh, a former ambassador who has served in several nations, including Indonesia and Germany.

If Quad is the political expression of India-Australia strategic convergence, the uranium deal is perhaps its strongest symbol of mutual trust.

A lot of ground was covered at the summit. The defence declaration, maritime cooperation, intelligence sharing and crisis consultation. Energy security has come into focus more since the US-Israel war on Iran led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Asian nations especially bore the brunt, as most of their oil supplies are from the Gulf region and have to come through the Strait. With the chance of another full-scale war erupting again on the horizon, the challenge of uninterrupted energy supplies is very real.

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The fact that the closure of the Strait has an impact on the global economy has led to an appeal for peace by India and Australia in the joint statement.

"We note with concern geostrategic uncertainty and threats to regional peace and stability. We encourage all parties to work together peacefully and call for the resolution of disputes without the threat or use of force or coercion and in accordance with international law," the statement said.

Changing security milieu

The broader backdrop is a changing Indo-Pacific security environment. As China's military power grows and uncertainty over long-term American commitments persists, middle powers such as India and Australia are deepening bilateral partnerships.

Adding to the unease are US President Donald Trump’s unpredictable turns and twists in foreign policy. The Quad that was resurrected during his first term is now of little interest to him. The Quad summit scheduled in India this year is unlikely to take place after Trump’s recent visit to China and decision to stabilise ties between the world’s two most powerful economies.

This has led India, Australia, Indonesia, Japan and South Korea to look for ways to work closely together.

Thursday's uranium agreement may have taken more than a decade to come into force, but in many ways it is arriving at exactly the right moment. It is less about powering India's nuclear reactors than about signalling the depth of trust between two Indo-Pacific partners that increasingly see their security and economic futures as intertwined.