Oct 7 becomes Netanyahu’s Achilles' heel in polls, but he remains Israel’s best bet

Massacre under Netanyahu’s watch

For Israelis, October 7 was a devastating psychological blow, as it was the single deadliest day and largest massacre for the Jewish people since the Holocaust. Some 1,200 people were killed and 251 others were kidnapped. The attack traumatised the nation and made ordinary Israelis, including the left-liberals, harden their positions on the Palestinians. This is the first election since then, and security is high on the agenda for every voter.

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An attack of this magnitude was least expected in a security state under Netanyahu’s watch. Throughout his political career, he had posed as the only leader capable of keeping Israel safe in what he always portrayed as a hostile neighbourhood. The central question in this election is whether the October 7 security failure will finally cost him politically.

What rivals bring to the table?

Netanyahu’s main opponent is Gadi Eisenkot, a former head of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) and a relatively fresh political face. He wants Netanyahu to answer questions about what led the security apparatus to lower its guard on October 7. Eisenkot has constantly raised this point during his campaign speeches.

Eisenkot lost his youngest son in December 2023 while fighting in Gaza, as well as two of his nephews during the war. He is of Moroccan heritage, rather than being part of the European Jewish establishment that rules the roost in Israeli society. Though he entered politics in 2022, he formed his Yashar Party only last year. His plus points are that he comes from the military, has a humble background, and is not an elitist like Netanyahu.

But on security issues, Eisenkot is as hawkish as Netanyahu. He has supported Netanyahu’s actions in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. His criticism of the prime minister is mainly about the army being caught napping on October 7 and Netanyahu’s lack of a strategic vision.

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Apart from Netanyahu and Eisenkot, other candidates in the race include former prime minister Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, both right-wing political leaders who take hardline positions on security and advocate permanent Israeli control over much of the occupied West Bank. Yair Golan, a left-winger, supports Israel’s withdrawal from large parts of the territory.

Loved and hated in equal measure

Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, is well known and has little new to offer. “Anyone who supports Netanyahu after October 7 is an accomplice to his crimes and the disaster that he has brought upon us,” a voter was quoted as saying in a leading Israeli newspaper.

Netanyahu succeeded in projecting Israel as the most powerful military force in the region. He is also keeping alive the Biblical dream of the “promised land”.

Netanyahu evokes strong emotions among people; he is loved and hated in equal measure. Voters know that he is a wily politician whose survival instincts are phenomenal. Before October 7, the prime minister’s attempts to overhaul Israel’s judicial system and subvert the judiciary, to ensure that he is not indicted in a corruption case, had led to continuous protests in the capital.

Everything changed after the attack. The IDF crushed the Hamas leadership, razed Gaza to rubble and was able to get back the remaining hostages, with some help from Donald Trump. Israel also succeeded in eliminating the powerful Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon and launching lethal air strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites before persuading Trump to go to war in February this year.

Israel’s strength, Jews’ mascot

Netanyahu succeeded in projecting Israel as the most powerful military force in the region. The only challenge left to tackle is Iran, and the prime minister has vowed that he is committed to regime change there. Netanyahu has said recently that overthrowing Iran’s government remains Israel’s “primary objective”.

His ultra-Orthodox religious right-wing allies are delighted at Netanyahu’s attempts to carve out a greater Israel by incorporating more and more Palestinian land in the West Bank. He is keeping alive the Biblical dream of the “promised land”.

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The Jerusalem Post quoted Jerusalem resident Reggie as saying: “We’re voting right-wing, because we feel like the world is on fire with antisemitism, and all our enemies want Netanyahu out. For me, that is the best reason he should stay.”

Another voter offered a similar view: “The current prime minister is the strongest and most experienced leader we have. I know a lot of people, English speakers especially, are talking about change. But before you make a change, it’s always worth exploring what that change is, and whether it’s going to be for the better or worse.”

What opinion polls predict

Opinion polls place Eisenkot’s Yashar Party ahead of Netanyahu’s Likud, though neither party is predicted to reach the 61-seat majority needed in the Knesset, which has 120 lawmakers. The average taken from a number of opinion polls puts the gap between Yashar and Likud at 4.5 seats.

A poll from Channel 13, quoted by the Jerusalem Post, predicts that the “change bloc” of parties opposed to Netanyahu will receive 54 seats, while parties loyal to the Likud leader will get 50. Among individual parties, Yashar leads narrowly with 23 seats, followed by Likud with 21, Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad party with 15, and the Democrats with 10. The Arab parties are projected to receive 16 seats, according to the poll.

Eisenkot, the current frontrunner in the polls, has already declared that he is ready to form a minority government with support from “outside”. But forming a government will depend on more than which party finishes ahead. Netanyahu has experience in putting together coalition governments.

This uneven verdict, thrown up in successive elections, has been the bane of Israeli politics for many years. No party has been able to muster even a simple majority. Netanyahu was forced to go into coalition with hard-right religious parties precisely because Likud was unable to come to power without the support of smaller religious parties.

Coalition challenge for Eisenkot

Netanyahu has had to pay a price to keep his coalition together. At a time when the Israeli military is stretched because of the recent wars, he continues to please the ultra-Orthodox by exempting Haredi Jewish men from mandatory military service, which is compulsory for other Israeli citizens. This is because Netanyahu is dependent on ultra-Orthodox coalition parties such as Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ) for the survival of his government.

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Unless voters change their minds, the chances of any party forming a government remain uncertain. Eisenkot, the current frontrunner in the polls, has already declared that he is ready to form a minority government with support from “outside”, possibly from independents.

But forming a government will depend on more than which party finishes ahead. Netanyahu has experience in putting together coalition governments and has the loyal support of religious and right-wing parties. Even if the opposition makes gains, the challenge of assembling a viable majority could once again leave Israeli politics deadlocked.