Major powers expect restraint as world waits for India’s response to Pahalgam attack

Soon after the terrorist attack in Pahalgam on April 22, US President Donald Trump wrote on the social media platform Truth Social, “Deeply disturbing news out of Kashmir. The United States stands strong with India against Terrorism. We pray for the souls of those lost, and for the recovery of the injured. Prime Minister (Narendra) Modi and the incredible people of India have our full support and deepest sympathies. Our hearts are with you all!”

On April 23, Randhir Jaiswal, the official spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs, stated, “US President Donald Trump called Prime Minister Narendra Modi to convey condolences for the loss of lives in the terror attack that took place near Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam. Trump condemned the attack and said that Washington stands with India in its fight against terrorism, offering all possible support to New Delhi.”

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These comments by Trump were on the lines of the growing understanding between India and the US. The offer of “all possible support” would have given satisfaction to the Indian authorities, especially those who have worked assiduously to take India-US relations to the levels that they have reached.

Trump's ill-informed remark?

However, Trump’s comment on the Pahalgam attack made to journalists on board his aircraft on April 25 was a remarkable departure from his earlier comment on Truth Social and what he conveyed to Modi on April 23.

“I am very close to India and I'm very close to Pakistan, and they've had that fight for a thousand years in Kashmir. Kashmir has been going on for a thousand years, probably longer than that. That was a bad one (terrorist attack). There have been tensions on that border for 1,500 years. It's been the same, but I am sure they'll figure it out one way or the other. I know both leaders. There's great tension between Pakistan and India, but there always has been,” he had said.

Also Read: China extends ‘ironclad’ support to Pak amid tensions with India over Pahalgam attack

The significant aspect of Trump’s comment relates to his being close to both India and Pakistan. The rest of the comment indicates that he has in all likelihood either mixed up what was mentioned in his ‘briefing book’ or what was conveyed to him by his advisors on Hindu-Muslim relations since the coming of Islam in the India sub-continent and/or with the history of Kashmir, including after the Partition of India in 1947. These remarks also show that the US President does not care about getting himself informed, even in an elementary way, about the realities of the Jammu and Kashmir situation or India-Pakistan relations.

No reaction from India

The Indian government has not formally reacted to Trump’s latest remarks. Some media reports indicate that there is some satisfaction in official circles that Trump has not offered to mediate in the crisis. He had done so in the past between India and China. That was in 2020 in the wake of the Galwan clashes and again, though not in any strong way, during Modi’s visit to Washington in February this year.

Also Read: 'Missiles, 130 nukes aimed at you': Pakistan minister warns India of nuclear war

India had naturally pointed out that it only deals bilaterally with neighbours and does not accept third-party mediation. Thus, it would have been a relief that Trump did not offer mediation between India and Pakistan. However, Indian officials and also External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar who has invested so much in the India-US relationship would have been acutely unhappy at Trump drawing an equivalence between India and Pakistan.

What world powers expect

Trump said that India and Pakistan will find a way to deal with their problem. These words cannot be taken at face value. The Trump administration and the major world powers will be watching the situation between India and Pakistan after the Pahalgam terrorist attack very closely. They would be aware of the pressures on Modi to act. They have offered their sympathies and condemned the attack. But what do they actually want?

The following points can be made in this connection:

1. The priority of the great powers is that India-Pakistan tensions do not result in a process that can threaten peace and security. Both countries have nuclear weapons, and therefore, the great powers wish to avoid a dangerous escalatory process between them.

2. Till the surgical strikes of 2016 and the Balakot attack of 2019, the great powers expressed sympathy for India and also assured it of putting pressure on Pakistan, but did nothing more. As India really did not resort to force but actually resumed the dialogue process with Pakistan after public tempers had cooled down, the great powers took the view that India always absorbed a terrorist attack; hence, they did not have to take action.

Also Read: Pahalgam terror attack: Houses razed, hundreds detained in Kashmir

3. Now the situation has changed. After the Pahalgam attack, Modi has aggressively said that the perpetrators and those who were behind them will have to pay a price. Besides, the great powers know that the public will expect Modi to act with force and will not be satisfied with the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and the other actions taken. This is especially so because Pakistan’s response to Modi’s actions has been harsh. It has suspended Indian aircrafts’ overflights over its territory and has also stated that if India stops the flow of water, it will consider it as an act of war.

4. In the light of these factors, the great powers will now want that any step India takes using force remains contained. There is no doubt that the leaders of great powers are in touch with the leaders of both countries. Also, ministers and senior officials of these powers would be in touch with their Indian and Pakistani counterparts.

All eyes in India and the world are on Modi because eventually he will have to take the final decision about India’s final response. The opposition parties have already said that they will support the government, and the people will also do so.