Population Census: Opposition flummoxed, sees it as a BJP ploy

The Centre, on Wednesday (June 4), finally announced the schedule for conducting the Census, along with caste enumeration, in two-phases. The population enumeration was due in 2021 but was delayed due to COVID initially and then for reasons yet to be explained by the Centre. Wednesday’s announcement, however, triggers more questions than it answers as the schedule outlined by the government for conducting the Census makes it clear that at least another three years would pass before the population data is officially released.

What the ministry statement says

The press statement released by the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), the nodal ministry responsible for conducting the decennial exercise, Population Census 2027, along with enumeration of castes, will begin on March 1, 2027 across regions other than Ladakh and the snow-bound areas of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

Also Read: India to conduct Population Census 2027 in two phases

Population enumeration for these snow-bound areas will begin on October 1, 2026. The statement added that the gazette notification for the Census will be published tentatively on June 16 this year as per Section 3 of the Census Act, 1948.

Final data only by 2030?

Typically, final Census data is published within two years of the commencement of the enumeration process. For instance, data of the last Census conducted in April 2011, when castes were not enumerated, was published in April 2013. Sources, however, say it is “highly unlikely” that final data for Census 2027 will be released before March 2030.

“As per the decision taken by the Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs (CCPA), chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on May 4, the Census will, for the first time since 1931, include caste enumeration. It is a historic step, and the government is committed to completing it with utmost sincerity. This would require a new format of enumeration, a higher budgetary allocation and greater scrutiny of the data collected. The officials responsible will also need time to decide how caste is to be enumerated or in what form this data is to be collected and tabulated. All this requires time and this is why we have kept the commencement date of March 1, 2027, except for some regions where it will happen from October 1, 2026, so that all this groundwork can be done properly. The final data may take up to three years (for being published),” an MHA source told The Federal.

Also Read: Stalin slams Modi govt's decision to defer Census exercise to 2027

The delimitation factor?

The timeline for the collection and publication of data is of immense political significance as the publication of Census 2027 will, in turn, determine the timelines for the rollout of the highly contentious delimitation exercise and the 33 percent reservation to be made for women in the Lok Sabha and State and Union Territory Assemblies. It would also determine the timeline for Modi’s pet scheme of synchronized elections for Lok Sabha, State and UT Assemblies and local civic bodies, provided the enabling legislation for this, currently under scrutiny of a Joint Parliamentary Committee, is enacted into law.

As such, Census 2027 would be unlike any previous population enumeration exercise as it won’t be just about counting India’s people but will also determine its future political course.

Opposition parties question move

Understandably then, the MHA’s announcement has left many in the Opposition both fuming and flummoxed. Though Opposition parties, barring the Congress and the DMK, have not reacted officially to the statement released by the MHA, leaders across four major INDIA Bloc parties The Federal spoke to wondered why the Centre had kept “such a long timeline” for the exercise and if the “sole purpose of the announcement was to delay both caste enumeration and women reservation while using the raw data on castes to BJP’s political advantage in the 2029 Lok Sabha polls”.

Watch | Is INDIA bloc jumping the gun on delimitation? | Talking Sense With Srini

“There is really no reason to delay the Census that was due in 2021 for another 23 months. The Modi government is capable only of generating headlines, not meeting deadlines,” Congress communications chief Jairam Ramesh posted on X.

Stalin's quick reposte

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister and DMK president MK Stalin took a more nuanced view of the Centre’s announcement to link it with the issue of possible delimitation of constituencies, which his party has been stridently opposing. The DMK has been claiming that the BJP, which has had limited success in making electoral in-roads into the southern states, wants to use delimitation as a means to substantially reduce the share of seats these states have in the Lok Sabha compared to the Hindi heartland states, where the saffron party continues to appear invincible.

Reacting to the MHA statement in a post on X, Stalin said, “The Indian Constitution mandates that #delimitation must follow the first Census after 2026. The BJP has now delayed the Census until 2027, making its plan to reduce Tamil Nadu’s parliamentary representation clear. I had warned about this. It is now unfolding. By siding with the BJP, Palaniswami (general secretary of the DMK’s main rival, AIADMK) is not just silent but complicit in this betrayal. It’s now clear that he has surrendered to Delhi’s domination. The people of Tamil Nadu are united as one in their demand for a Fair Delimitation. We need clear answers from the Union Government.”

Diversionary tactics, says SP leader

A senior Samajwadi Party leader said the announcement of the Census schedule is “nothing more than a diversionary and dilatory tactic by the BJP”.

Also read: Caste census a huge step against RSS tradition; will Sangh agree to it?

“This is what the Modi government is expert at. They got the Women Reservation Bill passed (through a special session of Parliament in September 2023) when they felt threatened by the Opposition coming together in the INDIA Bloc but they kept its timeline vague. They staunchly opposed caste census all through but when they suffered in the Lok Sabha polls because we and our allies made it a major issue, the government quietly did a U-turn when the country was focused on the Pahalgam tragedy and agreed to have a caste census but without giving any further details. Now they have said Census with caste enumeration will happen but no one knows whether the data will be released in 2029 or 2030 or even later,” the SP leader told The Federal.

'BJP will have unfair advantage'

Opposition leaders feel that since the data collected during the Census will be available to the government well before it is officially published, it would place the BJP at an unfair advantage against its political rivals in the run-up to the 2029 Lok Sabha polls. “The fact is that the BJP knows its fort is crumbling; 2024 (poll result) was a clear indication of this. We are also confident that they will lose Bihar (due for polls in October this year). So this decision to have the Census, collect caste data but in such a way that its results are not released before the next Lok Sabha polls is only a political ploy,” an MP from the RJD said.

The RJD MP asserted further, “If indeed the government sticks to this 2030 timeline that we are hearing about, I can bet they are doing this so that BJP and its allies can use the data of castes for their personal electoral gain; they will use it for announcing populist schemes before the 2029 election, for social engineering and candidate selection in the polls and they will then try to fool the people by asking for one more term to roll out women reservation and benefits of caste census”.

With the Centre also announcing on Wednesday the schedule for Parliament’s upcoming monsoon session – July 25 to August 12 – Opposition leaders say they will raise the issue of the “absurd timeline” for Census 2027 in both Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha but also concede that they expect “no clear answers”.