G7 split wide open: What is behind Macron’s big Palestine move?

French President Emmanuel Macron’s announcement to recognise a Palestinian state at the United Nations General Assembly in September has kicked the diplomatic hornet’s nest among the rich Western nations.

Britain and Canada have both decided to follow suit while the move has sparked a debate within the Group of Seven (G7 nations) — the world’s most industrial nations, forcing them to review their stand.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he will recognise a Palestinian state if Israel did not agree to a ceasefire with Hamas and stop the war that has brought starvation to Gaza.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney who joined the other two to recognise a Palestinian state at the 80th session of the UN General Assembly next month said a "two-state"policy was always pursued by Canada.

Also Read: French President Macron says France will recognise Palestine as state

Support for Palestine

There is already overwhelming support among world leaders for a Palestinian state. Of the 193 members of the United Nations, 147 support of an independent Palestinian state.

India is among them. It had supported the idea from the time when Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) leader Yasser Arafat first gave the call for an independent Palestinian state in 1988.

Most G7 members had so far remained ambiguous on the issue. The ongoing debate in the group is likely to isolate US President Donald Trump further if others also come to support a Palestinian state.

Also Read: What happened to Palestine’s once-vibrant nonviolent resistance?

Sudden change in the G7

Images of starving children and Israel’s relentless bombing, killing large numbers of Palestinians in Gaza, have made the public in several Western countries recoil with horror.

The resultant pressure from the public on their respective governments brought about the change.

The French argued that in the absence of any signs or moves towards stopping the war, European governments must try to break the deadlock using the levers they have at their disposal.

Starmer changed his stance as public pressure grew. "The situation is simply intolerable," Starmer said.

His Canadian counterpart also expressed anguish at the worsening situation and pointed out that Canada has always pursued a "two-state" formula.

'Two-state' solution

France and Saudi Arabia jointly moved a resolution at the UN asking countries to support the “two-state” formula to end the war in Gaza. The establishment of a Palestinian state beside an Israeli state can be the road to peace, the resolution said.

Israel has opposed the idea of a Palestinian state, arguing that it poses a serious security threat to it.

The United States has also opposed the move. The American ambassador in Paris, Charles Kushner said that Macron's decision was, "a gift to Hamas and a blow to peace."

However, if the current trend gains momentum among the wealthy Western nations, particularly the United Kingdom and France, both permanent members of the UN Security Council, Israel may end up with only America’s support in the Council.

Also Read: As Gaza atrocities escalate, 2 starkly contrasting developments emerge

Falling support for Israel

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s disregard for the ceasefire has convinced many countries that, beyond military reasons, he is waging the war to ensure his political survival.

If he ends the war, the extreme right-wing parties, whose support is crucial to the survival of his government, are likely to withdraw their backing.

Once Netanyahu steps down as Prime Minister, the corruption cases pending against him are expected to be taken up. If the verdicts go against him, he could be jailed, as he would no longer enjoy immunity.

However, the relentless Israeli military operations and the killing of Palestinians, which has reportedly reached 60,000, along with the starvation of civilians in Gaza, have sharply turned global public opinion against Israel.

A recent Gallup survey in the United States shows that support for Israel, which had already declined to 42 percent, has now dropped further to 32 percent.

The humanitarian crisis in Gaza has even caused a sharp divide among supporters of US President Donald Trump.

Also Read: Hamas says it's ready to accept ceasefire, seeks complete end to Gaza war

What does a Palestinian state mean?

Experts point out that Palestine meets nearly all the criteria laid down by the Montevideo Conference of 1933 for an independent state.

A sovereign Palestinian state will allow its government to independently pursue a foreign policy and engage with countries to push its own agenda and interests.

Countries that establish relations with Palestine would also need to review their trade and other policies with Israel to ensure they are not detrimental to Palestinian interests.

Importantly, recognition as a sovereign state with clearly defined geographical boundaries would allow Palestine to defend and secure its borders.

Any encroachment by Israel into Palestinian territory will be considered illegal and constitute a violation of international laws and could invite sanctions and boycotts.

India’s balancing act

India was among the first non-Arab countries to extend its support for a Palestinian state.

It has traditionally advocated a "two-state" solution, wherein a Palestinian and an Israeli state could peacefully co-exist within clearly defined and secure borders.

India had also recognised the West Bank and Gaza Strip, with East Jerusalem as the capital, of the proposed Palestinian state.

However, from 1992 onwards, India was compelled to adopt a balancing act after establishing full diplomatic relations with Israel.

"For a long time, we managed to pursue a dual-track policy where the Palestine issue was kept separate from our growing relationship with Israel," a former Indian diplomat said.

"The problem, however, began when we started merging the two. Due to Israel’s sensitivities, we began diluting our support for Palestine and abstained from most UN resolutions that were critical of Israel,” he added.

Also Read: Sonia Gandhi condemns 'Israeli genocide' in Gaza, slams PM Modi's 'silence'

Hollow promise

From 2017 onwards, India also stopped mentioning East Jerusalem as the capital of a Palestinian state, following Israel’s claim over all of Jerusalem.

However, the current crisis, marked by the continuous deaths of unarmed Palestinians and a looming famine in Gaza, has prompted India to make a course correction. It has now joined other countries in calling for a ceasefire in Gaza and an early resolution of peace negotiations between the two sides.

Sceptics, however, view the current move as merely symbolic and argue that it is unlikely to change Israel’s stance in any meaningful way.

If world leaders, particularly France and the UK, were serious, they would have begun by imposing an arms embargo and calling for trade sanctions on Israel.

In the absence of any such measures, merely calling for the recognition of a Palestinian state will remain a hollow promise.