Russia recognises Taliban regime, will India follow suit?

Russia’s decision to formally recognise the Taliban regime in Afghanistan has sparked off a debate in India on whether this will force others to follow suit and end its international isolation.

Long considered a pariah for suppressing women and violating human rights, Taliban has been under crippling international sanctions and denied recognition as the legitimate government in Afghanistan by the United Nations.

However, this did not stop several countries from engaging with the Taliban since it took charge of the country in 2021. Though Russia is the only country so far to recognise it.

Also read | Jaishankar speaks to Taliban minister, welcomes Kabul's condemnation of Pahalgam attack

India is among the countries that engaged with the Taliban when it began cooperating with Kabul on development and humanitarian assistance. The engagement has gradually reached the political level.

The two sides met at the foreign secretary level in April, and in May, India’s Minister for External Affairs, S Jaishankar, held a telephonic conversation with his Afghan counterpart to strengthen political and economic cooperation between them.

India not bound to follow Russia

Indian policy planners have noted the Russian decision with interest as they try to ascertain how it will play out in the coming days. “We are watching the developments carefully but under no compulsion to recognise the Taliban regime in Kabul,” a South Block official said.

Interestingly, the improvement in Indo-Afghan relations came at a time when Taliban-Pakistan relations began to show signs of being under severe strain and going downhill. Pakistan claims the hardline Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which is accused of carrying out several terrorist strikes in the country, operates from sanctuaries in Afghanistan.

Days before talks between India and the Taliban government, Pakistan decided to carry out airstrikes at TTP hideouts, killing dozens of people in eastern Afghanistan. Pakistan claimed it attacked TTP camps, but the Taliban condemned the strikes and described them as a violation of its sovereignty.

Evolution in India-Taliban ties

The Taliban’s first stint in power in Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001 posed a big challenge for India. As Pakistan was its main backer at that time, Taliban leaders allowed Pakistani-sponsored terrorist organisations to operate from its soil against India and target Indian officials and assets in the country and elsewhere.

In the aftermath of the 9/11 terror attacks in the US, the situation, however, changed dramatically when the Taliban’s refusal to hand over Osama Bin Laden, the mastermind of the attacks, brought the US-led coalition force to Afghanistan and ousted it from power.

With Pakistan’s backing, the Taliban managed to survive and regrouped to launch a war of attrition against the Western forces in Afghanistan. Taliban finally managed to come to power in Kabul for the second time in 2021 after ousting the US-backed Ashraf Ghani government and forcing the American coalition forces to end the 20-year-old military campaign and flee Afghanistan.

India to Afghanistan’s rescue

However, the Taliban regime was put under heavy sanctions and denied recognition by the UN. This led to an acute shortage of food and medicines and increased the sufferings of the Afghan people, who had already been suffering from decades of war and violence.

Also read | Pakistan launches airstrikes on Afghanistan killing 15; Taliban vows to retaliate

Several countries, including India, came to the rescue of the Afghans to avoid the impending human tragedy, paving the way for engagement between Indian and Taliban officials. The engagement was elevated to a political level when Jaishankar spoke with his Afghan counterpart, Amir Khan Muttaki, for the first time since 2021.

Jaishankar said in a post on X that he appreciated the “good conversation” with Muttaqi as both sides discussed “ways and means of taking cooperation forward.”

The Taliban readout of their talks said they focused on “strengthening bilateral relations, trade, and enhancing diplomatic relations.”

India’s stakes in Afghanistan

The strained Pakistan-Taliban relations have been a key driver in Delhi’s outreach to Kabul. Its salience has increased since China and Pakistan have begun to strengthen ties with Bangladesh to create pressure on India on its eastern flank.

However, other factors make Afghanistan an important partner. India has invested over US$3 billion in several development projects ranging from small dams, power projects, bridges, to hospitals and the Afghan parliament.

Afghanistan also provides India easy access to Central Asia by avoiding the land route through Pakistan, which policy planners in Delhi see as a big market and investment destination. This will also help connectivity in Afghanistan and make it easier for India to bring goods through Iran’s Chabahar Port to Afghanistan and reach Central Asia.

Importantly, good relations with the Taliban will ensure that in the future, Pakistan will have a limited influence in the country and will not have the past advantage of carrying out terrorist activities against India using Afghan soil.

Taliban 2.0 has widened options

From the time the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan, several countries have engaged with it by adopting a variety of approaches by balancing their interest with concerns on human rights and security.

China has an interest in Afghanistan’s rich mineral deposits and has invested heavily in the country. Though it has not formally recognised the regime, it has posted an ambassador in Kabul. It has both economic interests and security concerns in Afghanistan. Beijing wants to ensure that the terrorist groups active in its Xinjian province don’t get any encouragement and help from Kabul.

It also plans to safeguard its investments and expand the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to Afghanistan for creating another option to access the Central Asian region.

Afghanistan’s ties with Pak

Despite the current strains in Taliban-Pakistan relations, Afghanistan’s relations with Pakistan have not broken down completely. Under the Chinese initiative, the three countries have held several meetings to iron out differences and discuss areas of cooperation that benefit them all. The Taliban regime has also adopted a more pragmatic stand, where it has kept its options open to maintain good ties with all countries.

Also read | Is India moving closer to Afghan Taliban govt?

Observers say even the US and the European nations that masterminded heavy sanctions on the Taliban have various levels of engagement with the controversial Kabul regime.

“It is not as if the Taliban has been untouchable to the major players in the world, as all of them kept their contacts with it since it began ruling Afghanistan,” says an Indian diplomat who has knowledge of Delhi’s engagement with the Taliban.

The Taliban is aware that, unlike its first tenure when its regime was recognised only by three countries and ignored by the world at large, its long-term survival depends on the UN lifting the sanctions and recognising it as the legitimate government of Afghanistan.

India can wait until that happens. However, if China and Pakistan recognise the Taliban, then it will put India’s Afghan policy to a real test.