Russia’s jet engine deal with Pakistan: Are India’s defence ties at risk?

A major political controversy has been brewing since reports about Russia selling RD-93 MA jet engines to Pakistan to help it upgrade the JF-17 fighter jets it acquired from China started circulating in the Indian media over the past few days.

The Opposition Congress slammed the government for diplomatic failure in preventing the sale. While the ruling BJP accused the Congress of batting for the enemy by circulating “unconfirmed” reports.

Russia has not confirmed the sale of the engines to Pakistan. Experts argue that it is highly unlikely for Russia to jeopardise its strategic partnership with India to sell such engines to Pakistan, ignoring India’s sensitivity.

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The JF-17 fighter jets were used by Pakistan against India in the brief conflict in May in the aftermath of the Pahalgam terror attack. The Modi government successfully rallied the nation behind it during the fight, dubbed Operation Sindoor. It continues to project it as a major success against the enemy.

The Congress seems to be attempting to puncture holes in Modi’s claim, especially before the crucial November Assembly elections in Bihar.

The China factor

While there is no direct sale to Pakistan, the RD-93 MA jet engines are likely to be sold to China under an old agreement between Russia and China, according to a former Indian diplomat. The engines will be refitted and upgraded in China before the new version of the JF-17 fighter jets is given to Pakistan.

China is Pakistan’s main arms supplier, and Beijing regards it as its closest partner in South Asia. The possibility of the JF-17 aircraft being sold to Pakistan by China had been brought to the notice of the Indian leadership even in the past during both the Atal Bihari Vajpayee and the Manmohan Singh administrations, Russian sources told PTI.

Old allies, new equations

India and Russia have a strong and close bond. The partnership dates back to the Soviet era and continued even after the establishment of the Russian Federation in 1991. There is a broad political consensus in India to have strong ties with Russia, which is regarded as a close and most reliable strategic partner.

The defence cooperation remains the linchpin of the bilateral relations despite India’s diversification of its weapons supply sources. Russia accounts for nearly 50 per cent of India’s weapons, but now it competes with France, Israel and the US for the Indian defence market.

India and Russia have diversified their trade cooperation and added areas like pharmaceuticals, agricultural and marine products and machinery. But Russian oil has become a major import for India since the Ukraine war began and has pushed the bilateral trade figure to US$68.72 billion.

India and Russia have made reciprocal investments, and Russia has emerged as a major partner in India’s defence sector under Modi’s Atmanirbhar Bharat policy by setting up joint ventures. They expect the trade to reach US$100 billion by 2030.

However, in recent years, India has also developed a close partnership with the United States, and successive American presidents have prioritised strengthening bilateral ties with Delhi.

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Though this was done by Washington to use Delhi as a counterweight to Beijing’s aggressive rise in the Indo-Pacific, inadvertently, it has also affected Moscow. Strategic experts argue that Russia has also been looking for other markets in Asia and, as a result, improved ties with Pakistan.

Russia’s outreach to Pakistan

Russia and Pakistan have held several joint military exercises, counter-terrorism collaboration, and defence procurement between the two has also risen in recent years.

The convergence of interests in regional stability and engagement through forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) has helped in expanding their partnership.

They signed a defence cooperation agreement in 2014, and in 2021, Moscow supplied Pakistan with a batch of Mi-35 attack helicopters and signed contracts with it to deliver anti-tank systems, air defence weapons and small arms. “Russia’s engagement with Pakistan is also being driven by its quest for expanding options,” a former Indian diplomat said.

Western sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, along with Moscow’s growing proximity to Beijing, have emerged as major factors driving closer engagement between Russia and Pakistan. Other factors, like developments in Afghanistan and their impact on Central Asia, and the offer to use the warm water port at Gwadar, have been additional reasons for the boost in Russia-Pakistan ties.

The Russia-China equation

The Ukraine war has brought Russia and China closer and strengthened their geo-strategic partnership.

In 2004, Russia halted the sale of Su-35 fighter jets and Tupolev Tu-22M bombers to China over concerns that Beijing would copy its technology and begin producing the weapons through reverse engineering. China is now a significant weapons manufacturer, but in certain key areas like electronic and propulsion systems, it still lacks expertise.

Russian experts point out that the RD-93 engine is a variant of the RD-33 engines that are used by India in MiG-29 aircraft.

Pyotr Topychkanov, head of the section on ‘New Challenges in South and Southeast Asia’ at the Primakov Institute in Moscow, told PTI that India need not worry about this as it is familiar with the jet engines. India uses a variant of the engine, and in the recent Operation Sindoor, it has seen the JF-17 aircraft being used by Pakistan; therefore, they will be “familiar and predictable” for India.

Russia had transferred the RD-33 technology to India, but did not share the RD-93 technology with China.

All eyes on Putin’s India’s visit

The ongoing controversy comes in the run-up to Russian President Vladimir Putin visiting Delhi for a summit with Prime Minister Narendra Modi later this year.

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At the summit, the two leaders will reaffirm the strong strategic partnership between India and Russia and several new and important projects are likely to be announced, including a slew of sophisticated and advanced Russian weapons for India.

Putin is likely to highlight the joint production of several of these weapons in India under PM Modi’s Atmanirbhar Bharat policy. Indian observers point out that while Moscow may continue to play the field to expand its strategic options and pursue its national interests, it is highly unlikely to sacrifice its longstanding ties with India to move closer to China.

Above all, Russia’s partnership with India enables it to “hedge against China”, an advantage that Putin is unlikely to relinquish anytime soon.