Saudi-Houthi clash opens new front in Gulf conflict, further imperils energy routes

The war in West Asia has acquired yet another dangerous dimension. The fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, dormant for several years, has erupted with new intensity, adding another front to an already boiling regional conflict.

The Houthis have expanded their hold along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and are threatening Saudi energy infrastructure and the vital Bab el-Mandeb waterway, while Riyadh has responded with air strikes on Houthi positions all across the country. According to the Houthis, Saudi Arabia had conducted nearly 350 strikes on their positions.

'Worst escalation since 2022'

Prasanta Kumar Pradhan of the West Asia Centre at the Manohar Parrikar Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses in New Delhi says the current conflict is the worst since 2022.

“The current military escalation between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis represents the most serious deterioration in their relations since the expiry of the UN-brokered ceasefire between the Yemeni government and the Houthis in October 2022,” he says.

“Although the ceasefire was not renewed, an informal truce largely persisted and the Saudi-Iran rapprochement in March 2023 contributed to sustaining this truce in Yemen,” he explains.

Multiple threats to global energy markets

“The continuing expansion of the conflict in Yemen and reports of attacks inside Saudi Arabia is a dangerous escalation that can have far reaching implications for Saudi and regional security. It puts the Kingdom’s security to an unprecedented threat and would likely require a military response or mediation through Oman or others,” said Muddassir Quamar of JNU’s Centre for West Asian Studies.

“The Houthis’ attack is also posing a threat to security in the Red Sea region, which might affect the global energy security scenario,” he added.

Also read: Houthi attacks on Saudi: Drone shot down near Mecca; crown prince seeks Egypt's support

The West Asian conflict is multiplying on several fronts and once again threatens the global energy markets. The fighting has repercussions much beyond Saudi Arabia and Yemen. With the Strait of Hormuz almost closed, few tankers are daring to ply the narrow waterways for fear of being targeted either by Iran or the US. Now Bab el-Mandeb, the other chokepoint, is being disrupted. This can have serious implications not just for the region but also for global energy markets.

Pradhan, summing up the current crisis in a nutshell, says the situation unraveled in July this year “when the Yemeni government launched an attack on Sanaa International Airport to prevent an Iranian aircraft from landing, reportedly because it was carrying some Houthi officials. The Houthis accused Saudi Arabia of being behind the attack and retaliated by targeting Abha International Airport in southern Saudi Arabia. The exchange triggered a cycle of attacks and counterattacks.”

The Mecca angle

Adding a dangerous religious dimension to the fighting, Saudi Arabia has claimed that the Houthis had launched a drone towards Mecca, one of Sunni Islam’s holiest sites. Riyadh said the Saudi Air defence forces intercepted the drone before it could do any damage. The Houthis have denied the charge.

Both the charge and the denial may or may not be true. But the political implications are hard to contain. The accusation itself raises the stakes enormously. The holy cities of Mecca and Medina are not just another piece of Saudi territory. Saudi Arabia sees itself as the custodian of Sunni Muslims across the world, because it holds the keys to these cities. Riyadh’s invocation of a “red line” signals that an incident involving Mecca could generate pressure for a much stronger Saudi response.

Pakistan’s predicament

Riyadh faces a difficult choice at the moment. It cannot absorb the repeated attacks on its territory and its oil infrastructure but a major offensive in Yemen could lead to a prolonged war that Riyadh knows won’t be easy. Saudi Arabia had launched a major intervention in Yemen in 2015, mainly relying on air power rather than ground operations. But despite the kingdom’s much superior air power, the Houthis succeeded in holding their ground. In fact, they have demonstrated considerable resilience despite years of Saudi-led military intervention.

Also read: Iran war | Strikes on US diplomatic facilities cost USD 184 mn: Pentagon watchdog

Will Riyadh now draw on its defence pact with Pakistan and Turkey for help? In 2015, Pakistan remained neutral and declined to join the Saudi military coalition against the Houthis, with Pakistan’s parliament turning down the proposal. Considering that Islamabad shares a border with Iran, sending in fighters to assist the Houthis would have strained ties with Tehran.

In case the Saudi leadership calls on both Pakistan and Turkey to come to its aid, as it faces continuing attacks by the Iran-backed Houthis, it would be a tough call for both Islamabad and Ankara. Pakistan would probably try to negotiate a peace arrangement between the two sides.