Why Bangladesh will be on a knife-edge till 2026 elections

As Bangladesh moves closer to holding parliamentary elections in February 2026, numerous challenges lie ahead for both Muhammad Yunus, the interim head, and Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) leader Tarique Rahman.

For Rahman, the task is to manage dissent within his party as a section of its cadres have been demanding elections by the end of this year. Managing these internal pressures while navigating the political landscape will test his leadership in the coming months.

And for Yunus, it could be difficult to convince those in his administration to accept the February deadline instead of April, as many of them felt elections should not be held before.

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Most observers believe the February elections are likely to bring relief to political parties and the public in general, as months of uncertainty have affected the administration and the economy, creating unease in people’s minds about the country’s future.

It is widely believed that an elected government will be well placed to deal with the series of challenges the country faces and also assure the outside world that the democratic process in Bangladesh is on track. An early election in Bangladesh may suit India too, as this gives it an opportunity to engage with an elected government and understand its policies better, than an interim government.

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Importance of the Yunus-Tarique Rahman meeting

The recent London Yunus-Rahman meeting was much needed, as the rift between the interim government and the BNP had been widening over the past months. The maiden meeting between Yunus and Rahman, the future face of the BNP, has managed to clear the gathering storm and laid the foundation for a better understanding between them, say Bangladeshi observers.

The last parliamentary election in Bangladesh was held in January 2024 when Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League swept the polls. But most Opposition parties had boycotted the election.

Hasina was ousted from power in August last year after a student protest against the quota system for government jobs turned into a people’s insurrection against the Awami League government. Hasina, the longest-serving leader of the country, was forced to flee and has been in exile in New Delhi since.

“For the first time in 20 years, people in Bangladesh will be able to cast their vote,” Amir Khusro Mahmud Chowdhury, a senior leader of the BNP, said in Dhaka.

Welcoming the meeting between the two leaders in London, Khusro said the outcome was a reassurance that the democratic process was on track. However, he pointed out that what was discussed in London will now be discussed among party leaders and cadres.

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The agreement to have elections in February is a compromise for both Yunus and Rahman. Yunus, a world-renowned economist, was brought to head the interim government after Hasina’s departure, to stabilise the country and put the economy back on track.

The student leaders, many of whom were part of the interim government as advisors, had supported Yunus’ reform programme to clean up the political system and suggested elections be held after a thorough cleansing of the system.

Yunus earlier suggested that elections be held around April next year after the reforms were completed. But this had brought him on a collision course with the BNP that insisted elections be held by the year-end.

The BNP had initially supported Yunus’ reforms but argued that the process should not delay elections and the remaining reforms could be done by an elected government.

In recent weeks, the relationship between the BNP and the students had strained, and they regularly traded verbal attacks.

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BNP has an edge over others

The BNP, the second largest party after the Awami League, has an edge over other political parties in the election. With Hasina no longer in the scene, the BNP considers itself the clear winner and is confident of forming the next government.

Yunus’ reforms were delaying the elections and this made the BNP jittery, leading to a confrontation with Yunus’ supporters. Part of the problem for the BNP in a delayed election came from holding its party cadres in check. As the party was out of power for nearly 20 years, the BNP cadres were restless in returning to power.

After Hasina’s ouster, BNP cadres filled up the lucrative money-making enterprises that had given rise to corruption and intra-party clashes. The fear that its image was being tarnished and people were equating it with the Awami League led the BNP to suspend many party members as it attempted to refurbish its reputation.

This did not stop the students from attacking the BNP and they began to warn people that the BNP was fast becoming a replacement for Hasina’s corrupt practices.

Apart from agreeing on an understanding of the election date, Yunus also tried to bring peace between the students and the BNP. It is not clear yet to what extent he has been successful.

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Law and order remain fragile

Observers note that even if the BNP and Yunus can persuade their respective supporters to agree on the February elections, the law-and-order situation will still remain a significant challenge.

Since the July protests of last year, law and order has remained fragile. Though most policemen have returned to work, they lack the confidence and authority they once enjoyed.

In such a situation, it is the Bangladesh Army that is maintaining law and order and will also have to deal with rising incidents of crime in different cities and towns.

Once elections are formally announced, such crimes and clashes among political rivals are likely to increase, experts say. A lot will depend on the army in maintaining peace during elections.

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India’s relation with the BNP

India’s experience with a BNP-led government in Dhaka has not been encouraging, particularly due to the party’s past association with the Jamaat-e-Islami. But relations between the two erstwhile coalition partners have remained strained in recent months despite Jamaat leaders’ attempt to iron out differences.

Reports suggest the BNP may look to bring in some Islamist parties as coalition partners if an understanding with the Jamaat fails. The Jamaat may not be keen to join the government as it is working towards forming a broad coalition of Islamist parties and turning Bangladesh into an Islamic State.

A BNP government in Dhaka without the Jamaat may be more acceptable to India, especially when Hasina’s political future is uncertain. How things pan out will depend on the future alliances BNP and others make.

Once elections are announced, India will keep a keen eye on developments in the neighbouring country with which it shares a long, porous border. But so will others. Hasina’s departure has made too many players in the region and beyond interested in Bangladesh.

(The Federal seeks to present views and opinions from all sides of the spectrum. The information, ideas or opinions in the articles are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Federal)