Why US is worried over India’s Russia embrace amid Ukraine conflict

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Moscow has become a cause for serious concern in the United States.

Modi’s visit came around the same time when American President Joe Biden was hosting the 75th anniversary of the NATO in Washington to isolate Russia for invading Ukraine.

Modi’s visit allowed Russian President Vladimir Putin to show how most countries outside the West valued him and wanted to engage with Russia, particularly India, the world’s largest democracy.

India on Ukraine

Since the war began in Ukraine in February 2022, India has walked the diplomatic tightrope by refusing to abandon Russia, its traditional strategic ally, while enjoying strong ties with the US and other Western countries.

However, the Indian stand now appears to have come up for scrutiny and questioning by sceptics in the American establishment.

The American ambassador to India, Eric Garcetti, reflected this scepticism when he commented that there was no space for “strategic autonomy” during a conflict.

Sullivan, Doval talk

US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan spoke over the telephone to his Indian counterpart Ajit Doval on July 12 amid the rising controversy.

What seems to have rattled the Biden administration about India’s stand is the timing of Modi’s visit to Moscow.

India was expected to know about the NATO summit in Washington that the US President was hosting to consolidate support for Ukraine against Russia.

Modi’s Moscow timing

Why did Modi plan the visit to Russia — his first since 2019 — to coincide with the NATO summit?

Modi was in Russia on July 8 and 9, two days before the NATO summit, for a bilateral meeting with Putin.

The two leaders were photographed in a warm bear hug. Modi attended a dinner hosted in his honour by Putin and a performance of horseback riders.

Zelensky horrified

The visit also coincided with a series of missile strikes by Russia in Ukraine that struck a number of buildings, including a children’s hospital, and resulted in 44 deaths.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky said it was “a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy hug the world’s most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day”.

Indian officials argue it was unrealistic to expect India to sacrifice its national interest and prioritize the war in Ukraine.

Bilateral ties

During the visit, Modi and Putin discussed ways to increase bilateral trade from USD 66 billion to USD 100 billion by 2030 and new shipping routes to the Arctic and between Vladivostok and Chennai.

Modi described Russia as an “all-weather” and trusted friend as he announced the opening of two new Indian consulates in Kazan and Yekaterinburg to enhance trade and travel.

Apart from being India’s main weapons supplier, Russia has become its largest supplier of oil. The two countries also cooperate on nuclear energy, space and joint military production.

US unhappy

Significantly, despite the disappointment in the US administration about Modi’s Moscow visit, the NATO summit did not criticise India even as it described China as a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

In June, Modi travelled to Italy for the G7 Outreach summit and met Zelensky.

The two leaders spoke about the ongoing conflict. Modi reiterated India’s position for an early end to the war and a resolution of all outstanding issues through peaceful negotiations.

China factor

Experts say India’s stand on Russia stems from the fact that in the ultimate analysis, it is China that is seen as an existential threat by the US.

Therefore, despite frustration and disappointment over India’s decision to pursue its relations with Russia, the Americans can ill-afford to isolate India as it gives more stress on the evolving situation in the Indo-Pacific where China’s aggressive rise is causing serious problems.

Doval’s assurances

The conversation of the two NSAs allowed the two sides to work closely to further advance India-US relations based on “shared values and common security and strategic interests,” said a statement issued by the Indian external affairs ministry.

They agreed on the need to work collectively to address global challenges to peace and security and further expand their Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership’

According to the Indian statement, Doval and Sullivan discussed a range of issues of bilateral, regional and international concern and the coming high-level engagements under the Quad framework to be held in July and later in the year.

Restive NATO

The Quad has India, US, Japan and Australia as members. Since its inception in 2006, the grouping has been seen with suspicion by Beijing which feels it is directed at China.

There is a sense of urgency in NATO to step up its game by sending more sophisticated weapons to Ukraine, including F-16 fighter aircraft from the US to help Zelensky battle Russia’s increased aggression.

This is based on two factors: one, the realization that despite the Western help, Russia is winning the war and it will be extremely difficult to win back Ukrainian territory under Russian control.

Waning US backing

Two, support for Ukraine in the US is already waning among the American public and could be diluted further in the coming months as the US gets ready for the presidential election.

There is growing belief that if Donald Trump becomes the president, the US commitment towards providing security to the continent will be significantly reduced. Under his presidency, the efficacy of NATO’s role in dealing with the Russian threat will be questioned.

Trump's priority

Trump has made it clear that his priority as the US president will be to end the Ukraine war by holding negotiations with Russia.

Instead, his strategic focus will be concentrated in the Indo-Pacific and against China’s aggressive rise in the region.

Such a possibility leaves Europe worried about its future. But it promises to remove the strain that has cropped up in Indo-US ties because of India’s refusal to roll back ties with Russia.