Will Bangladesh's pro-Islam foreign policy change after 2026 polls?

Come 2026, and Bangladesh will head to crucial elections, seen by many as a panacea for all its ills, political, economic and social. The 13th general election in the 54-year-old history of the nation will be keenly watched, particularly by India, which has had harmonious ties with its eastern neighbour for most period since 1971 when Bangladesh became independent.

An elected government in Dhaka would be considered positive for South Asia, especially in terms of political stability and economic growth, since the region remains one of the most volatile in the world.

Seeing the key state in South Asia (Bangladesh is the eighth most populous nation in the world, its economy is often seen to be one with significant growth potential, and has a strategic location) turning politically stable and economically viable would be satisfying for both regional and global quarters. A settled leadership could also mean Dhaka pursuing a coherent foreign policy, both vis-à-vis South Asia and beyond, even though it would be easier said than done.

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Regional peace a top priority

Regional peace has emerged as a top concern for countries across the globe, particularly those located in turbulent zones. The ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and West Asia, which despite being regional have every potential to snowball into major global crises, have triggered the anxiety.

Nobody had expected the limited war between Russia and Ukraine to continue for years, but it has, ridiculing every effort to stop it. The international community is getting involved in the complications as each day passes.

The lack of credibility makes it difficult for the interim government when it comes to articulation a new foreign policy. Yunus’s disadvantage lies in the fact that he is not an elected leader. Many international leaders have refused to discuss important policy-related matters with him since he doesn’t have a popular mandate.

Besides, bloodletting has always been a common occurrence in West Asia, but what is happening now has crossed all norms of civilisation. Sparks of the raging fire between Israel and the Palestinian side has transcended borders to hit countries such as Lebanon, Yemen and Qatar.

Great Wars, regional episodes

These tendencies are worrisome since they are not without precedents. If one looks at the two Great Wars (1914-18 and 1939-45), their origins were regional incidents in Europe involving a few countries before things exploded into global conflicts.

No other proverb perhaps summarises the state of international politics better than the French one, which says, “The more things change, the more they remain the same”. Even in ‘civilised’ Europe, an exception to this is hard to find, as top policymakers do not always learn from history.

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Wars easy to start...

To pick a piece of history to elaborate on this, Franz von Papen, an inter-war chancellor of Germany who also served as an ambassador to Turkey during the Second World War, told fellow German Joachim von Ribbentrop of the 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact fame about the perils of war.

According to Papen, it is easy to start wars but very, very difficult to end them.

The words, as proved golden by history, failed to cut much ice with Ribbentrop, who did not have the best of terms with Papen. But did Papen himself practise what he preached? He was among the group of leaders who supported Anschluss, the unceremonious takeover of Austria by Nazi Germany in 1938.

Coming back to Bangladesh, peace on its soil is something that analysts of South Asian politics stress as an imperative since the region has already witnessed serious conflicts that, if unchecked, can lead to a major blaze of international consequences.

For India as well as its immediate neighbours, many of which do not share cordial ties with New Delhi at the moment, peace in South Asia is of prime importance.

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Whoever comes to power in Dhaka after the next elections will have its task cut out. While Bangladesh has positives — be it sizeable population, demographic dividend, a growing middle-class and the key strategic location — the challenge will remain to manage and lead them towards robust national growth and development and ensure that the country doesn’t implode again, the way it did in 2024.

Yunus's interim government

The interim government in Dhaka, led by Chief Adviser Dr Muhammad Yunus, has survived the initial baptism by fire after taking over the administration on presidential orders, days after the Awami League (AL) government of Sheikh Hasina was ousted on August 5, 2024.

a lot of observers also wondered why the Hasina-led AL government did not deal with the militant Islamist mobs, which did not bother to hide their links with Pakistan, with iron hands? Bangladesh also saw a ‘boycott Indian goods’ campaign, which went on for many weeks. These activities suggested that organised forces were working to a plan. But the AL government did not react.

The 'takeover' by young firebrand leaders, who joined forces with the conservative Islamists belonging to the Jamat-e-Islami (JeI) and the main Opposition group, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), and their smaller allies, was complete as the toppled prime minister fled to India.

Among various tasks that awaited Yunus and his team were: to organise ‘free and fair’ general election, unlike the allegedly rigged polls conducted by the AL, which has now been banned in Bangladesh. The relationship between Yunus and his predecessor has not been smooth in the past. They had differences many times over financial policies and programmes and specific projects, be it the second Padma River bridge or the running of the microfinance sector.

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However, it was Hasina who prevailed over the Nobel laureate despite his expertise since she had the popular mandate. Yunus’s proximity with leaders in the US and Europe, including the Clintons, George Soros, and officials of international lenders such as the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and the Asian Development Bank had also irked Hasina.

Interim set-up lacks credibility

Once Hasina was out, it became easy for Yunus to give wings to his plans. But in little more than 13 months since the interim administration took over, it committed blunders and saw internal bickerings. While it continued to function, poor official coordination and tension with political parties became too big to conceal. The set-up lacks credibility, so much so that few believe that elections will be held in February as promised by the chief adviser on the first anniversary of assuming responsibility.

This lack of reliability makes it difficult for the interim government when it comes to articulation a new foreign policy. Yunus’s disadvantage lies in the fact that he is not an elected leader. Many international leaders have refused to discuss important policy-related matters with him since he doesn’t have a popular mandate. Political leaders, from parties such as the BNP and Jatiya Party, are more trusted by the people since they are more popular faces.

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Shifting foreign policy

One of the major areas that Dhaka needs to work on, if it aspires to emerge as a country with a peace-loving and friendly image, is its foreign policy. During its rule, the AL preached that in matters of foreign policy, Bangladesh would be friendly towards all countries barring Israel and show malice to none. The government initially tried to project the country’s secular image, helping its minorities.

But from 2020-21, it started making compromises with hardliner Islamists to keep its majority Muslim population happy. They included groups like the Hifazat e Islam and the radical elements in the BNP. The old Al Badr and Al Shamls groups and some new Islamic outfits also started making an impact.

This resulted in a major shift in Bangladesh’s foreign policy. The radicals succeeded in removing cultural symbols, like paintings and scriptures, forcing the Islamisation of poems for the youth. Many secular bloggers, including Hindus, were killed, and their houses were destroyed. The government appeared weak as the Islamic extremists could sense that the minorities were panicky.

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As time passed, Bangladesh’s foreign policy started witnessing more changes that were earlier considered quite unthinkable. Diplomatic ties with Pakistan resumed even though the latter offered no apologies for its massacre of countless civilians in the then East Pakistan during the 1971-72 struggle. Turkey also started making an impact on Bangladeshi soil with its militant brand of Islamic expansion. While it aimed to set up arms-producing units in the South Asian nation, its NGOs also came up with units in Bangladesh for better cultural exchanges.

Mob attacks on minorities in Bangladesh increased. Durga Puja, a popular festival of the minority Hindus, came under regular attacks. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the country in 2021 was greeted with violent protests, which even saw deaths. The law-enforcement officials had a hard time tackling the well-armed protesters.

Background set for fall

These formed the background of the coup d’etat of August 5, 2024. Western voices backed by the US, Europe and bodies like Amnesty International kept on accusing the AL of corruption and excesses against ‘democratic opposition’ like the HI or the banned JeI.

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However, a lot of observers also wondered why the Hasina-led AL government did not deal with the militant Islamist mobs, which did not bother to hide their links with Pakistan, with iron hands? Bangladesh also saw a ‘boycott Indian goods’ campaign, which went on for many weeks. These activities suggested that organised forces were working to a plan. But the AL government did not react.

The AL’s secular foreign policy was effectively rooted out of Bangladesh between 2021 and 2024, while the activities of Pakistan and Turkey-based organisations increased. Anti-India slogans became common.

The interim government, backed by the Islamic hardliners, continued with the same stance whereby attacks on minorities continued and Indian officials got snubbed. The regime stopped importing cotton from India and reduced its order for rice in bulk, ordering 50,000 tonnes from Pakistan instead.

It also initiated investigation against a nuclear power plant being constructed with Russian aid due to alleged corruption. Yunus even raised India’s landlocked north-east region (home to the seven sisters) while making a speech in China in March this year to lure Beijing.

India reacted this time, by halting the railway-connectivity projects and rescheduling despatch arrangements for Bangladeshi exports to countries in the European Union and the US. Daily movement of goods by roads was also curtailed.

Aggressive foreign policy

The repercussions were felt in Bangladesh immediately. As prices of goods rose and export of garments took a hit, the Yunus administration came under pressure from consumers and traders to sort out things with India.

Bangladesh’s aggressive anti-India stance found little reception in the West. Dhaka tried to make large-scale imports from Pakistan and Turkey but with limited success.

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For the country’s economic stakeholders, there is no better solution than talks. Latest analyses by Bangladeshi experts have stressed (a) a proper balance in the import of goods from China and India, making sure that there are no negative reactions in those countries.

Expressing views on merging common Bangladeshis’ interests with the two Asian giants of India and China, Bangladeshi economists have advised a detailed study of the short and long-term requirements of the two countries, and find out how profitably Bangladesh could export its food items, fish, leather goods and vegetables to start with.

The country’s experience over the past several months has taught its authorities that they need to cooperate and discuss ways to increase bilateral trade and reduce travel time and unnecessary movement of goods for Bangladesh’s own economic sake.

Partisan trade policy

A partisan foreign trade policy favouring one country/group over another may result in economic losses, disruption of long-established supply chains and mass anger at home, all of which could have an adverse cumulative impact on the country’s overall health. The next government needs to have a friendly outlook in place, keeping in mind the regional as well as global perspectives.

There has been no anti-Indian rant from either Yunus or his office of late. The country also began exporting its iconic Hilsa fish to India this festive season.

Is there another change on the horizon, for the better?