Bihar's poll 'VIP': Will Mukesh Sahani switch sides again to join NDA?

With the Assembly elections in Bihar nearing, speculation is rife about the next move of Mukesh Sahani, chief of the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), an ally of the state’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-led Opposition Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance).

Uncertainty looms large over Sahani’s continuation in the alliance since he has been bargaining hard for more seats (in fact 60 of them in an Assembly of 243) and even the post of a deputy chief minister for himself. Rumour has it that the VIP chief has deliberately come up with such demands as part of a plan to ditch the alliance and join hands with the state’s ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) for more benefits in case they are not met.

Sahani publicly denies BJP link

The former cabinet minister in the Nitish Kumar government has publicly denied joining hands with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). He was also seen attending the meeting of the Opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) at the residence of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi in New Delhi on Thursday, August 7, where the key issue of Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls in Bihar and the alleged voter fraud case were taken up.

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However, Sahani was conspicuous by his absence at the meeting of the INDIA bloc’s coordination committee meeting in Patna on July 30 where seat-sharing for the upcoming elections was discussed. The VIP chief sent the party’s state president instead which fuelled speculation about his political plans.

The VIP, which is part of Bihar’s Opposition alliance, has reportedly met some top BJP leaders behind closed doors in New Delhi to finalise a deal sooner or later. Sahani, who calls himself the “son of Mallah” (a community of boatmen and fishermen), hinted earlier this week that the BJP was interested in taking a ride in VIP’s boat (the party's poll symbol) to cross the electoral river.

Relying on caste factor

The VIP leader, who has been projecting himself as the community’s top face in recent years, has claimed time and again that his community, locally called Mallah, Nishad and their over a dozen sub-castes, constitute together 14 per cent of Bihar’s population. For him, this is a sizeable vote bank, but there are others who challenge it, saying Sahani’s caste and its sub-castes account for between seven and eight per cent of the population only.

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As per Bihar’s 2023 caste survey report, the Mallahs constitute 2.6 per cent of the state's population while their sub-castes such as Kevat make up 0.71 per cent and Kaivart 0.2 per cent, respectively.

In the caste-ridden electoral politics of Bihar, Sahani’s importance lies in his growing support base among his caste and sub-castes of late. It electorally matters for both the NDA and Grand Alliance.

One of Sahani’s colleagues in VIP, Sunil Singh, said the former has an overwhelming support among his caste and sub-castes and that makes him powerful enough to influence the outcome of the next Assembly polls.

There is no doubt that Sahani is an emerging leader from extreme backward castes (EBCs) and represents a political force

“No one can ignore him and his voice,” he said.

The Nishads are counted among the Scheduled Tribes in West Bengal, Odisha and Delhi, but not in Bihar. In 2015, the then Nitish Kumar government faced pressure and asked the Centre to declare the Nishads a Scheduled Tribe but that did not happen. Kumar reiterated the recommendation later too, but it did not succeed.

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D M Diwakar, a Bihar-based political analyst, said Sahani’s bargaining power has increased now.

“There is no doubt that Sahani is an emerging leader from extreme backward castes (EBCs) and represents a political force. After socio-economic data of the caste survey report revealed the real picture of his caste and sub caste groups, Sahani is fully aware of it and using this. Sahani is the only Mallah leader who has been aggressively raising issue of job reservation for Nishad or Mallah (his community) with an eye to expand the support base not only among his caste but sub-castes, which are a sizeable part of state’s population, mainly in the flood-prone Mithilanchal, Koshi and Seemanchal regions. This has made him popular, mainly among youths, who are aspiring for better future and ray of hope among elders”, Diwakar, a former director of the AN Sinha Institute of Social Studies in Patna, added.

Diwakar also added that Sahani, like the head of any other small parties, is part of opportunistic politics without an ideological commitment. “He may continue in Grand Alliance and might join NDA. It is difficult to say what will be his next course. But the BJP will try to finalise a deal with him on unrealistic offer to attract him”.

NDA eyes Sahani

As the Kumar-led NDA government fears a strong anti-incumbency mood in the next elections, the BJP, which is playing the role of the big brother this time, is trying to ensure return of Sahani in its fold, like he did during the 2020 Assembly polls, to strengthen its support base.

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Party sources said the BJP has offered Sahani a seat in the Union Cabinet, a Rajya Sabha seat and also decent number of seats to contest the Bihar polls if he joins the NDA next month.

Sahani, who is known for changing sides, claimed early this week that Union Home Minister Amit Shah is his political guru and that he has good relations with other top BJP leaders. He also added that he will even sacrifice his life for PM Modi if he announced reservation for the Nishads.

“It appears Sahani is in two minds. Although he is with Opposition and daring the BJP to contest alone, Sahani’s next political move may not be surprising at all,” Patna-based political commentator Soroor Ahmad said.

As mentioned earlier, Sahani has already demanded 60 seats to contest in this year’s polls and a post of the deputy chief minister for himself if the Grand Alliance gets elected to power.

This assumes a political significance as Sahani has been stressing that his backward and poor caste and sub-castes deserve representation or share as per their numbers.

“In earlier Grand Alliance coordination committee meetings, Sahani tried to justify his demand. His stand on this issue created a problem ahead of seat sharing,” said a leader of CPI (Marxist-Leninist), a major ally of the alliance.

All eyes on Opposition seat-sharing

The RJD, which emerged as the single-largest party in 2015 and 2020 Assembly polls, is eyeing to contest at least 130 to 140 seats this time while the remaining seats will be shared between the Congress, Left parties and VIP.

In the upcoming polls, the Grand-Old Party has also demanded 70 seats, CPI(M-L) between 40 and 45 seats and the CPI 24. The Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party of former Union minister Pashupati Kumar Paras, which quit the NDA in April and is likely to join the Grand Alliance this month, will also contest the elections.

Sahani has already demanded 60 seats to contest in this year’s polls and a post of the deputy chief minister for himself if the Grand Alliance gets elected to power

RJD’s state president, Mangni Lal Mandal, reacted to Sahani’s demand for seats, saying the latter was asking for too much and that he should get as much as he deserved.

“Let’s wait till the seat-sharing is finalised. We have our traditional, reliable allies Congress and Left parties, who also deserve decent number of seats,” he said.

In the 2020 polls, the RJD contested 144 seats and won 75, while the Congress contested in 70 and won 19 seats. The CPI(M-L) fielded candidates in 19 seats and won 12 seats while the Communist Party of India (CPI) and Communist Party of India (Marxist) won two seats each.

'Sahani can repeat 2020'

Political observer Kanchan Bala said, “Going by his political journey in the last one decade, an ambitious Sahani has changed sides frequently. It appears he is keeping his options open. We can't rule out if he will repeat 2020 by switching sides just ahead of polls if his demands are not met.”

Bala recalled that in 2020, in the middle of the joint press conference for the Grand Alliance’s formal announcement of a seat-sharing formula, Sahani suddenly left the podium and alleged that he was betrayed and backstabbed by RJD leader and former deputy chief minister Tejashwi Yadav.

Sahani was upset that Tejashwi had not allotted 25 seats, as promised to VIP. Later, Sahani quit the alliance and joined the NDA and contested in 11 seats and won four.

In-famous for changing sides

Sahani first entered politics during the 2015 Assembly polls and was among the BJP’s star campaigners. He also accompanied Shah to 41 of his 47 rallies. The BJP banked on him to woo the Nishad community, which is considered a supporter of Kumar, who had ended ties with the NDA ahead of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. However, the NDA lost the polls against the alliance of Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) and the RJD, then led by Lalu Prasad.

Three years later, Sahani floated his own party. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the VIP contested as an ally of the Mahagathbandhan in three seats but failed to win any. Sahani himself was defeated at Khagaria. The party then won its first seat in the 2020 state polls. But in 2022, the VIP saw a split as three of its MLAs joined hands with the BJP, and Sahani was sacked by Kumar as the minister of animal husbandry and fisheries.

How much the moves by Sahani, who is yet to win an election (LS or Assembly), would help or harm alliances is something for time to decide, but one thing is clear: His next plan will certainly send a political message.