Will Keir Starmer’s ‘one in one out’ scheme fix UK’s illegal migration crisis?

During the last decade, Indians have been migrating to the UK in large numbers, and they now top the lists of all categories - both legal and illegal immigration. Be it student visas, work permits, or overstaying their visas and disappearing into the black economy, Indian nationals figure at the top of the immigration charts.

Surprisingly, they even figure in the number of asylum seekers using small boats to cross the English Channel from France into the UK, so much so that the first person to be removed under the “one in, one out” deal signed by the two western neighbours was an Indian national.

Also Read: Indian becomes first person to be deported from UK to France under new treaty

Dangerous route used by illegal migrants

The Indian man, whose name has not been revealed by the authorities, had come illegally to the UK from France, crossing the English Channel in a small boat in early August. He was picked up by the Border Force on the southern shores where the majority of these boats land, and was detained at an immigration removal centre near Heathrow airport in London. He was among about 100 men currently detained at these centres who had arrived on small boats and were told they were potentially eligible to be returned to France.

This dangerous route to the UK used by tens of thousands, in which hundreds have perished over the years, has become a political bug bear for whichever government comes to power in Britain. Rishi Sunak, a second-generation Indian immigrant himself, even made “stopping the boats” one of his five pledges when he took over as prime minister.

Priti Patel, another Indian immigrant’s daughter, as the home minister had thought up the Rwanda plan whereby illegal immigrants would be sent off to Rwanda, irrespective of which country they originally came from. Her successor Suella Braverman, yet another Indian immigrant’s daughter, as home minister dreamt of plane loads of immigrants taking off for Rwanda.

However, none of the plans succeeded, and another 36,000 illegal migrants crossed the Channel in small boats in 2024 resulting in the Conservative Party losing the general election. After 14 years of Conservative rule, Labour was handed a landslide victory, but also inherited the “stop the boats” problem.

On day one of assuming power, Sir Keir Starmer, the newly-elected Prime Minister, scrapped the Rwanda plan as inhumane and announced that a better way of dealing with the issue was to smash the gangs that were dealing in people-smuggling and using the small boats route.

Also Read: UK records highest single-day arrival of migrants in small boats this year

‘One in, one out’ scheme

On August 6 this year, the UK and France signed the “one in, one out” scheme which allows Britain to send back small-boat migrants who are deemed ineligible for asylum. In return, France will send the same number of migrants with a strong case for asylum to the UK, but this time through safe and legal channels.

The scheme, which is to last till July 2026, is intended to act as a deterrent against migrants making the treacherous journey and also make them think twice about turning to people-smugglers because of the risk that they will be sent back. Under the treaty, the UK can immediately detain anyone who crosses the English Channel and within around two weeks agree with the French authorities to return the individual.

It is understood that the French authorities had requested an Indian migrant be the first person to test the scheme as asylum claims by Indians have a low grant rate. Most of the asylum seekers crossing on small boats are from countries like Eritrea, Sudan, and Syria and are fleeing war, famine, and slavery. British courts tend to grant asylum to such claimants as they are considered legitimate refugees.

It is believed that the Indian man threatened to appeal his removal, but the courts did not agree that he had a case for asylum as he faced little threat to his life if he went back to India. He was escorted onto an Air France commercial flight from Heathrow airport on Thursday (September 18) morning by three security personnel and handed over to the French authorities at Paris.

The French home ministry has provided him with board and lodging for the first few days of his arrival. They will offer him a voluntary return to India, where the government will pay the airfare and give him financial assistance of €2,500 (approximately Rs 2,58,731). However, if he does not accept this, then he will face forced removal from France.

Also Read: Seven Indians among 280 arrested in UK crackdown on illegal delivery gig workers

Economic migrants from India

Most illegal migrants from India are economic migrants – looking for a better life. They pay huge sums of money to agents, often going into debt, and hoping to recover the amount once they reach the UK by earning in the black economy. It is highly unlikely that the two and a half lakh rupees that the French authorities are offering will cover the costs they have incurred to get this far.

Interestingly, the Indian man was removed from the UK on the same day that President Donald Trump of the United States was in England on a state visit. At the joint press conference, Trump was asked what advice he would give Starmer on how to deal with immigration.

"I told the prime minister I would stop it, and it doesn't matter if you call out the military, it doesn't matter what means you use," Trump replied.

Thankfully, Starmer did not heed Trump’s advice.

“This is an issue we are taking incredibly seriously, we have struck a number of cooperation deals with other countries because this is a problem right across Europe,” replied Starmer.

Also Read: New UK visa policies undermine growth, marginalise migrants | Interview

Scapegoats

With a swing to the political right in much of Western Europe, immigrants have become the scapegoats to be used to gaslight the indigenous population and win elections.

Britain has seen the rise of the right-wing Reform Party which has anti-immigration – legal or illegal – as its main focus. Nigel Farage, Reform’s leader, has promised to deport six lakh people in the first term of a Reform government. Whereas James Catton, the donor manager of Reform, has advocated forcibly deporting one crore people.

If the “one in, one out” scheme does manage to halt the small-boat crossings and bring down the number of illegal migrants coming into the UK, then it will definitely take the wind out of the sails of right-wing parties like Reform. The next year is crucial!