Yunus announces elections for February 2026, but is Bangladesh ready?

Bringing on the doomsday analogy while talking about general elections in a country which is desperate to revive its democracy is not an ideal stance to take, but not many are hopeful that the next polls that Bangladesh hold will be a smooth affair.

Speculation about the country’s political future became rife when Muhammad Yunus, Bangladesh’s chief adviser, announced on August 5 plans to hold elections in February 2026.

The interim leader’s announcement about the long-anticipated parliamentary elections came exactly a year after former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was toppled after a weeks-long protest, throwing the country into deep chaos.

At a public address held to mark the first anniversary of the ouster of the former PM and her Awami League (AL), Yunus, 85, said he would write to the chief election commissioner with a request to hold the elections.

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Undercurrent of tension

While the Nobel laureate’s declaration about elections was expected to bring some hope, initial public reaction in Bangladesh’s mainstream media showed that few were actually convinced that the interim government could maintain the given timeline.

The sceptics cannot be blamed entirely.

Even as political leaders and interim authorities in Dhaka try to redefine or amend existing constitutional provisions and upgrade administrative work to ensure a fair election, that a strong undercurrent of tension is found in the common Bangladeshis’ psyche cannot be missed as officials wearily fend off queries from a persistent press.

Daily briefings have exposed, more often than not, how officials appointed by the interim administration were seriously lagging behind schedule in most matters.

Backed by parties like BNP

It is not that Yunus has found himself alone in the project. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by former prime minister Khaleda Zia, has been pressing Yunus to hold early elections. He eventually brought the polls ahead by a few months and now they will be held before the holy month of Ramadan.

Leaders and supporters of the BNP naturally were elated by the interim leader’s announcement.

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While protesters against Hasina and her AL always accused them of rigging elections, political heavyweights who have promised a ‘free and fair’ polling next year are also feeling the heat, nonetheless.

Poll challenges galore

One of the key questions doing the rounds is: If the administration is confident about holding the elections by February 2026, why are so many people doubting the timing?

According to some election analysts, the answer lies in the logistical challenges that only the authorities can deal with.

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Given the magnitude of the tasks the ruling establishment faces to hold the election next February, even the most dynamic of officials might have struggled. Given the country’s massive electoral population and fragile infrastructure hit by the elements (like flooding of rail and roadways), even a committed interim administration and energised political parties could find it a Herculean task to update and amend contentious electoral rolls in all 64 districts of the country. Many of these have faced the monsoon’s fury as they do every year because of the country’s geography.

Strict supervision

Besides, the authorities would have to contend with strict national and international supervision during the pre-election preparatory work. The police, para-military and the army will also find themselves under intense scrutiny of the international press.

The parties have to get on with the job in terms of candidate selection, pre-coalition talks and preparation for campaigning. Top political leaders have conceded that the next election could be Bangladesh’s most tense political exercise in recent history. Violence is not ruled out, particularly with smuggling of arms and ammunition.

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The memory of the bloodbath during July-August 2024 remains fresh as Bangladesh still mourns the death of over 1,500 people, mostly youths, when strong protests broke out against the former Hasina government.

Even the law-keepers were not spared as many personnel perished in the violence.

Three major formations

Assuming that the currently banned AL will be allowed to contest the elections, much against the wishes of Yunus and the National Citizens Party (NCP) representing radical and anti-Indian elements, there could be three major political formations going into the elections.

The BNP, which was last in power between 2001 and 2006, will be a frontrunner. The party of Zia and her son Tarique Rahman, its acting chairperson, has been a serious challenger to the AL in the past, even defeating it in polls to grab power. However, of late, the BNP has stayed away from elections accusing the League of mass rigging.

The AL, which was in power for 15 interrupted years between 2009 and 2024, remains another key player, but it has been accused of corruption, a pro-India approach, and muzzling opposition voices through false cases and murders.

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Strong similarities

However, both the AL and BNP have followed a similar model of functioning over the years – dynastic politics led by a strong leader and accused of corruption. Also, like Zia’s son, Hasina's son Sajeeb Wajed Joy has become politically active, intending to take the baton forward.

The newly formed NCP and the group it leads constitute the third formation. Reports from Bangladesh suggest that it could join hands with the Jamaatis and a host of like-minded Islamist outfits. Bangladeshi media reports have reported at length how Yunus tends to favour the new group and its leaders in taking policy decisions.

Clearly, this bunch of activists would be out to consolidate the new adventurist Islamic voters, the jobless youth and other angry elements in the country.

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Alliance possibilities

The NCP could also wean away a sizeable chunk of votes from the Jamatis, who accounted for as much as 17 per cent of the popular vote at one stage. For obvious reasons, the NCP would never join a coalition led by the AL, and should feel more comfortable with the BNP or any formation led by it.

Reining in the vaulting ambitions of NCP’s impetuous young leaders could pose a challenge to those entering into a coalition with it. According to some, Yunus’ support could see the NCP bagging some seats and aid the veteran’s own survival in his new role as a Bangladeshi politician.