After November surge, India’s Russian oil imports set to ease but persist

Russian crude supply surged to 36.6 per cent of the total Indian oil imports in November to beat the November 21 US sanctions deadline, data shared by global real-time data and analytics provider Kpler show. This was higher than the 33.5 per cent in October but down from June’s peak of 44.4 per cent.

The US announced sanctions against Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil in its bid to stop the Russian-Ukraine war. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had said the two Russian companies helped fund the Kremlin's “war machine”.

Crude supply from US falls

Crude supply from the US, which saw a massive jump to 11.8 per cent of the total in October, fell to 8.8 per cent in November. It was a substantial jump from the average of 4.9 per cent during January 2024-September 2025, indicating that India was veering away from Russia to the US for its crude.

Also read: Exclusive | Is India ending Russian crude imports? What RTI data show

The US imposed a stiff penalty tariff of 25 per cent on India from August 27, 2025 (over and above the reciprocal tariff of 25 per cent earlier) for buying the Russian crude and allegedly helping its war against Ukraine. Since then, US President Donald Trump has repeatedly asserted that India agreed to stop buying the Russian crude – which India has not declined.

The following graph maps the relative share of crude from Russia and the US in India’s total crude imports between January and November 2025.

The equations will change in December.

Sumit Ritolia, Kpler’s lead research analyst, says the rise in the Russian crude in November was expected as Indian buyers moved cargoes ahead of the November 21 deadline – rising to 1.9-2.0 million barrels a day (mbpd) – and then slowed down to take the average for the month to 1.8 mbpd.

Also read: Reliance Industries to review Russian oil imports amid US sanctions: Report

Apart from the front-loading, Ritolia attributes the strong supply from Russia to attractive discounts and improved operations of the Nayara Energy, earlier known as Essar Oil Ltd, which acquired the new identity after Rosneft acquired 49.13 per cent of its stake in June 2018.

'Clear dip in Russia's exports'

“Looking ahead, we’ve started to see a clear dip in Russia’s exports to India”, Ritolia says, adding that the December arrivals are likely to fall to 1.0-1.2 mbpd and go down further to about 0.8 mbpd, before stabilising.

In the medium-term, he foresees a shift in Indian refiners towards non-sanctioned Russian suppliers – Rosneft and Lukoil account for 49.2 per cent of Russian crude production – more opaque trading channels and increased sourcing from the Middle East.

Also read: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio calls India 'strategic partner', but flays Russian oil buys

Ritolia explains the dynamics at play: “On the Russian side, the response has been highly adaptive, involving ship-to-ship (STS) transfers near Mumbai, mid-voyage diversions and more complex logistics to keep barrels moving and increase discounts. As long as broader secondary sanctions aren’t applied, India is likely to continue importing Russian crude—just through more indirect and less transparent routes.”

More imports from other regions

During the current flux, he sees Indian refiners sourcing more from the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait), Brazil and broader Latin America (Argentina, Colombia, Guyana), West Africa and North America (the US and Canada).

Also read: India caught in crossfire as US sanctions jolt Russian oil trade | Capital Beat

The Middle East (Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Saudi-Kuwait) has been the top supplier of crude to India, accounting for monthly average of 44 per cent since January 2024 and 43.7 per cent since January 2025, the Kpler’s data show.

The following graph maps the monthly share of the Middle East, Russia and the US in crude supply since January 2025.

In Ritolia’s assessment, the decline in Russian crude supply will most likely to be temporary, allowing the supply chains to reorganise and unless more expansive secondary sanctions are introduced, India will continue to buy from the non-sanctioned Russian suppliers.

Also read: US sanctions on Rosneft, Lukoil may impact Reliance's crude imports

This, he argues, is not only because the Russian crude is cheaper but also the Indian political leadership wouldn’t like to be seen bending down to the US.