AI disruption, debt risks to fuel global turbulence in coming years: Ashwini Vaishnaw
The Union Minister warns that AI-driven disruption, rising debt in developed economies and technology risks could intensify global uncertainty
New Delhi, Oct 14 (PTI) Warning of heightened global turbulence in the coming years from tech disruptions, artificial intelligence and financial risks, Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw on Wednesday said India is strengthening its economic and technological resilience to shield its growth from external shocks.
Speaking at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum 2026, Vaishnaw -- who is Minister for Electronics and IT, Information and Broadcasting and Railways -- said global technology supply chains would continue to span multiple countries and geographies, but companies and governments would need to repeatedly evaluate their partners and ensure that dependence on a particular country or company did not compromise resilience.
Technology will remain a highly globalised field, he emphasised, adding that global value chains will be multi-border, multi-country, and multi-geography, reflecting the nature of the industry itself.
"... Strategic dependencies, which are the countries you can trust, which are the places where you believe that your production, your design, your dependency on a particular country or a company does not make you lose your resilience...Those are the decisions which will have to be taken again and again, continuously," Vaishnaw said.
This would mean constantly evaluating partners, making sure that the partners and the producers are on the same page, and have a similar mindset.
The minister warned that global uncertainty could intensify in the coming years, driven by rapid technological change and financial risks, including high debt levels in developed economies. He said the eventual unwinding of these debt levels could add to economic disruption.
"In my understanding of the way the world is moving today, the turbulence is going to be much more than what it was in the past decades, and the turbulence will come both from technology as well as from the way the financial world is moving, the whole debt levels in the rich countries that is going to unfold today or tomorrow, maybe in 3-5 years," Vaishnaw said.
When that unravels, it is going to bring in much bigger turbulence, the Minister said, and added "by that time, AI would have brought in many other disruptions in the employment sector, in the way people, especially the services industries, work, and the debt levels getting unravelled".
He warned that the combination of these factors could make the coming years extremely challenging.
"The biggest issue that we all have to be prepared for is the turbulence, which is coming in the next few years," the Minister said.
Vaishnaw further said trust was becoming as important as cost in technology supply chains, particularly as cybersecurity risks increased and concentration in some semiconductor segments grew.
Cisco Chairman and CEO Chuck Robbins backed India's approach, saying the country had the scale, engineering capabilities and technological expertise to develop critical capabilities while partnering with trusted companies for other requirements.
"India has been an incredible trusted partner for lots of American companies, in particular, and global companies...it really does create an environment where we are comfortable investing, and I think that is super important...," Robbins said. PTI