Akshaya Tritiya spurs retail gold rush amid global market jitters

With the auspicious Akshaya Tritiya falling on April 30 this year, gold's allure continues to shine for Indian consumers and investors, according to industry insiders and analysts.

Gold has been on a remarkable run, climbing to record highs as global economic uncertainties, intensified by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, boost its appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Gold prices recently peaked at over $3,500 per ounce before settling around $3,350. This surge, marking a nearly 30 per cent increase year-to-date, is largely attributed to escalating trade tensions with US tariffs.

In India, gold prices have mirrored this global trend. As on April 25, 24-carat gold is priced at Rs 9,824 per gram while 22-carat gold stands at Rs 9,005 per gram. This translates to Rs 98,240 and Rs 90,050 per 10 grams, respectively.

Retail gold demand

In India, the world's second-largest gold consumer, the festive season of Akshaya Tritiya traditionally sees a spike in gold purchases. This year is no exception, with retailers expecting robust demand despite high prices.

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Ramesh Kalyanaraman, Executive Director of Kalyan Jewellers, told The Federal: "Last year, we saw encouraging sales growth, especially during key festive periods like Akshaya Tritiya, driven by strong consumer sentiment."

Kalyan Jewellers, with 388 showrooms across India, the Middle East and the US, anticipates sustained demand in the coming months, buoyed by the upcoming wedding season.

Gold investment

Beyond retail, gold's investment appeal has intensified. Central banks have ramped up gold purchases and inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have surged.

Goldman Sachs projects that gold prices could exceed $3,700 by the end of 2025, particularly if central banks continue with their gold-buying trend.

Prathamesh Mallya, Analyst (Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies) at Angel One Ltd, noted: "Gold's trajectory is influenced by a confluence of factors — geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures and currency fluctuations. While short-term corrections are possible, the long-term outlook remains bullish, especially with central banks diversifying reserves."

'Not best time to buy'

Analysts at Way2Wealth Brokers (Shriram Group) say that MCX Gold is showing strong upward momentum and could continue to rise in the near future.

However, they also warn that this may not be the best time for new investors to buy, as the chances of high returns are lower right now.

Also read | Akshaya Tritiya: Why buying jewellery is not the same as investing in gold

Support is the price level where gold tends to stop falling and start rising, while resistance is where it tends to stop rising and start falling. Way2Wealth says current support for gold is at Rs 94,850 and Rs 93,750, and resistance between Rs 97,000 and Rs 97,500.

'Prices to surge'

JP Morgan forecasts that gold prices will surpass $4,000 per ounce by the second quarter of 2026, given the risks of a recession and the US-China trade war and higher US tariffs. By the fourth quarter of 2025, JP Morgan is expecting gold price to climb to $3,675 per ounce; with the possibility of crossing the $4,000 mark even earlier.

With global factors pushing prices higher, gold's investment appeal could grow stronger.

"But in India, gold is not seen as pure play investment — so, when the price fluctuates, customers tend to pause for a few days, but once it is steady, its business as usual," said Kalyanaraman of Kalyan Jewellers.