India’s Russian oil imports rebound in October despite Trump’s claim

After a brief slowdown in the second quarter of the current fiscal year, India's crude oil imports from Russia strengthened in the first half of October, reversing a three-month slide in arrivals as refineries were returned to full capacity to meet festive demand, according to ship tracking data.

The data comes at a time when the US President Donald Trump claimed that the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had agreed to stop purchasing crude oil from Russia.

India's imports from Russia declined from over 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in June to 1.6 million in September.

However, preliminary data by global trade analytics firm Kpler for early October suggest a rebound as shipments of Urals and other Russian grades to the Indian market have picked up pace, supported by renewed discounts amid weak demand in Western markets and shipping flexibility.

The data show the October imports tracking around 1.8 million bpd, an increase of around 250,000 bpd from the previous month, though the current-month data is subject to revision. The data also show Indian imports of US crude have averaged 310,000 bpd so far in 2025, an increase from 199,000 bpd in 2024. It is expected to hit 500,000 bpd in October.

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Trump's contradictory statement

The data pertain to the period before Trump's statement on October 15, claiming Modi had agreed to stop Russian crude imports. However, Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said he was not aware of any such phone conversation. Indian refiners, too, reiterated that they had not received any directive from the government to halt Russian oil imports.

It is to be noted that Trump has imposed an additional 25 per cent tariff on Indian products as India continued its fuel trade with Russia.

India began purchasing discounted Russian oil after Western countries imposed sanctions on Moscow and shunned its supplies over its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Consequently, Russia’s share of India’s total oil imports rose from just 1.7 per cent in 2019–20 (FY20) to 40 per cent in 2023–24, making it India’s largest oil supplier.

In the first half of October, Russia continued to hold the position. Iraq was the second-largest crude oil supplier to India at around 1.01 million bpd, followed by Saudi Arabia at approximately 8,30,000 bpd. The US has overtaken the UAE to become India's fourth-largest crude oil supplier with 647,000 bpd. UAE supplied 394,000 bpd, according to Kpler.

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'Russian crude oil vital for India'

Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst (Refining & Modelling) at Kpler, said that Trump's statement was more likely a pressure tactic linked to trade negotiations rather than a reflection of an imminent policy change.

"Russian barrels remain deeply embedded in India's energy system for economic, contractual, and strategic reasons," he said, adding, "Russian crude oil has remained structurally vital for India, accounting for roughly 34 per cent of its total imports and offering compelling discounts that are too significant for refiners to ignore."

"There has been a lot of talk about the dip in imports during July-September. This was driven less by tariff concerns and more by seasonal factors, particularly increased maintenance activity at PSU refineries such as MRPL, CPCL, and BORL," he said.

In fact, most contracts for deliveries up to early September were finalised 6–10 weeks in advance, meaning deals were largely locked in before July 31. Therefore dips in July-September were mostly due to refineries processing less crude in view of maintenance schedules.

Even with narrower discounts than in 2023, Russian barrels remain among the most economical feedstock options available to Indian refiners, due to landed discounts and high Gross Product Worth (GPW) margin outputs from grades such as Urals. Discounts average between USD 3.5-5 per barrel, up from USD 1.5-2 in July/August.

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Diversified sources

According to Ritolia, replacing Russian crude is not difficult, as more barrels could flow from the Middle East, Latin America, and the US, similar to India's crude slate before 2022. He said Indian refineries can handle diverse crude grades, so the technical constraints are minimal, but whether New Delhi is ready to make that shift is another matter.

"The reality is that cutting Russian imports would be difficult, costly, and risky," he noted, adding that substitution would require rapid scaling from multiple suppliers, at higher costs including freight, and weaker discounts. If margins compress or retail prices rise, the result could be inflation, political backlash, and weaker refinery profitability, he said.

He also believes refiners would not leave a dollar on the table unless directed by the government - just as happened with Iranian barrels.

While there has been a stronger push for diversification, contracts for Russian crude oil are typically signed 6–10 weeks before arrival. In practice, Indian refiners have been gradually broadening their baskets, not to replace Russia in the short term, but to enhance energy security, continuity, and flexibility.

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Independent energy policy

India has consistently pursued an independent foreign and energy policy, balancing economic interests with diplomatic relationships. A sudden shift away from Russian crude would undermine its energy security strategy and is unlikely unless formal sanctions — similar to those on Iran or Venezuela — are imposed.

"At this stage, it's improbable that India will implement structural cuts purely to satisfy US and EU political pressure. If Washington intensifies pressure, Indian refiners could make a token reduction - on the order of 100,000-200,000 bpd - to demonstrate diversification and appease Western partners. However, these cuts would likely be symbolic rather than transformative," he added.

Importing higher volumes from the US to placate Trump has been an option, but the upside has been capped at around 400,000-500,000 bpd because US grades face both logistical disadvantages and economic and compatibility challenges with Indian refining systems.