Has India made a strategic shift to US crude, inching away from Russia?
Kpler data shows a spike in US oil imports to India in October, signalling a potential long-term diversification strategy away from Russian supplies
Is India shifting its import of crude oil to the US, and away from Russia?
This may well be true, going by the crude import data of global real-time data and analytics provider Kpler. Its data shows there is a sharp rise in the US share of India’s total crude imports – jumping to 10.7 per cent in October (up to October 28), from 4.5 per cent in September.
In comparison, the Russian share of India’s crude import fell from 34.1 per cent in September to 33.6 per cent in October (up to October 28).
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If a slightly longer time frame is taken, the average monthly share of US crude went up from 4.5 per cent during January-October 2024 to 6.2 per cent during the corresponding period of 2025. In contrast, the Russian share went down from 38.3 per cent to 36.1 per cent, respectively.
What led to the changes?
Using Kepler’s monthly data from October 2020 (before the Russia-Ukraine war broke out in, February 2022) to October 2025 (up to October 28), here is how the relative shares of the US and Russia have moved.
A few developments support this change. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly said, beginning with October 16, that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had agreed to stop buying Russian crude and that it would happen over a period of time because it involves “a little bit of process”.
India denied Trump’s October 16 statement but not the subsequent ones, including during a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, a few days later.
Also Read: India should keep buying Russian oil, but not from Rosneft and Lukoil
On October 28, Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said at a public function in Hyderabad that there was adequate crude oil supply in the international market and if one supply stream was disrupted, alternative sources were available.
He didn’t specifically mention the US sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, on October 20 — which account for 49.2 per cent of Russian crude production — but the context was apparent. India currently imports crude from about 40 countries.
The US imposed a 25 per cent penalty tariff on India, from August 27, for buying Russian oil, over and above the 25 per cent reciprocal tariff in retaliation for India’s high tariffs and to cut down its trade deficits with India.
Although there is no official word on Indian refiners reducing or stopping importing Russian crude, The Federal has revealed through the RTI reply of PSU Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) that it cut down importing Russian oil to ‘zero’ in August 2025, from 202,000 metric tonnes in July 2025.
Not linked to sanctions
Kpler says the sudden spike in the import of US crude in October can’t be linked to the US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, which the White House announced on October 20, because it takes about 45-55 days of shipping time. The Kpler data reflects crude reaching the Indian shore.
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It can certainly be linked to the US’s penalty tariffs on India and to India’s commitments to double its trade with the US under “Mission 500”, aiming to more than double the bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030. This commitment was part of the joint statement issued by the White House in February 2025, after Modi met Trump.
India may well wind down its Russian imports substantially, but it may not return to the pre-war level.
A key element of this Mission 500 was “to increase energy trade”, underscoring “the scope and opportunity to increase trade in the hydrocarbon sector, including natural gas, ethane and petroleum products” and to ensure “supply diversification and energy security”.
A commercial move
Read/Watch: India caught in crossfire as US sanctions jolt Russian oil trade | Capital Beat
No compulsion not to buy
Ajay Srivastava, trade expert and founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), thinks the surge in India’s import of US crude is definitely a strategic and long-term move. He explains that through the high tariffs on India, the US is trying to cut down its trade deficits – $45.8 billion in goods trade and $45.7 billion in total trade with India in 2024 – because of which it has been pushing its agricultural produce, dairy products, and energy to India.
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“Unlike agriculture,” Srivastava told The Federal, “India has no domestic compulsions not to buy US crude”. India has a crude oil deficit, and it won’t mind importing US crude as long as the US matches the global price, he added. India’s crude oil dependence is 90 per cent.
Modi has publicly declared that India won’t open its agriculture and dairy sectors to US imports. In August 2025, he had said, “For us, our farmers' welfare is supreme. India will never compromise on the well-being of its farmers, dairy (sector) and fishermen.”
US made it easier
In fact, the US made it easier for India to move away from Russia crude by imposing sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil in early October. Given India’s decades-old strategic relations with Russia and the discounted Russian oil (that saves foreign exchange, allows Indian refiners to make extra profits, even though Indian consumers don’t benefit from it), it would have been difficult to move away.
Also Read: US sanctions on Rosneft, Lukoil may impact Reliance's crude imports
It may be noted that before the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, India imported very little Russian crude – an average of 0.9 per cent of total oil imports between October 2020 and February 2022, during which the US crude import averaged 9.4 per cent.
Unlike agriculture, India has no domestic compulsions not to buy US crude. It won’t mind importing US crude as long as it matches the global price.
It was the substantial discount at which Russian crude was available after the war that India lapped up – with a clear understanding with the US and EU that this would help stabilise global price shooting up at the time. European countries were particularly vulnerable.
That the deal had the US’s blessing was revealed by then US Ambassador to India Eric Garcetti in May 2024. Given that the EU was the main beneficiary of India’s refinery exports (India became the largest supplier of refinery products to the EU in 2023), it was complicit.
Room for Russian oil
As the graph shows, the import of Russian crude went from less than 1 per cent before the Russia-Ukraine war to as high as 45.8 per cent of total crude imports in May 2023. India may well wind down its imports substantially, but it may not return to the pre-war level.
Rosneft and Lukoil produce 49.2 per cent of Russia’s total crude, which no Indian refiner would dare to access, but the rest 50.8 per cent of Russian crude is available for trade. The price arbitrage may prompt Indian refiners to continue trading in Russian crude.
