Is NITI Ayog overly optimistic about Viksit Bharat and Net Zero goals?

The Centre's apex think tank, NITI Aayog, has prepared 11 study reports on titled 'Scenarios towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero', explaining how to achieve both the Viksit Bharat@2047 and Net Zero@2070 goals seamlessly, without compromising on either.

These reports have been prepared by 10 inter-ministerial groups set up to provide Net Zero pathways for different sectors, such as agriculture, power, transport, and critical minerals, among others.

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The most notable assertion of the reports is: “Viksit Bharat @ 2047 is achievable in all scenarios”.

This conclusion is based on the analysis of current policies, overlooking economist and former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan’s blunt diagnosis in 2024 that if India persists with its current policies (“business as usual”), a 6 per cent growth will not deliver the Viksit Bharat @2047 goal; the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would quadruple by 2047 but India would still be a “lower-middle-income” country — below China’s current per capita income.

The other big claim is India “can sustain rapid growth (to achieve Viksit Bharat@2047) while progressively decoupling it from energy use and emissions” (Net Zero@2070), although it acknowledges that this would require “a decisive shift” towards electricity and non-fossil energy, “numerous” policy interventions, “significant demands” on finances, institutions and skills and also implementation challenges.

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To achieve the Viksit Bharat@2047 goal — a developed nation — India requires both producing and consuming a huge amount of energy which must shift to renewable or green energy sources.

Key policy shifts

Here are some significant policy changes in key sectors that the reports seek but may prove daunting, given the current policy focus and sensitivity.

Finance: The Aayog estimates the Net Zero scenario would require $22.7 trillion. It assumes that India can mobilise $16.2 trillion on its own and the rest $6.53 trillion of external aid because of “domestic constraints and the risk of crowding out and higher interest rates”.

The external support would include technology transfers, which have proved difficult so far. Given the tardy support from developed nations to finance climate mitigation efforts in developing nations, the financial support to the extent required may be tough.

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As for domestic mobilisation of $16.2 trillion by 2070 — the Aayog suggests to mobilise through the corporate bond market, financialisation of household savings and also sustained FDI/FPI inflows — may not be easy either.

The RBI’s attempt to track green investment has not been very successful. Last month, it put on hold its plans to ask banks to disclose and manage climate-related risks — essential for the transition to a low-carbon economy that developed nations such as the UK and Japan have mandated. This means India has no data or roadmap on green investments yet. There are other impediments, too.

Coal: Indian banks are heavily invested in high-polluting coal sector. In June 2025, Bengaluru-based Climate Risk Horizons said Indian banks invested $29 billion during 2016-2023 in coal, adding that “most Indian banks remain heavily exposed to carbon-intensive sectors, with approximately 25–35% of their loan books (as of October 2023) tied to coal”.

Besides, India plans to export coal by FY26 and add 80 GW of coal-fired power by FY32. It extended coal mining contract periods in 2022 for 30 years, which is till 2052.

Further, India has strongly opposed to “phase out” of coal since the COP26 (Glasgow, 2021) and it won a major victory at the COP28 (Dubai, 2023), when the final resolution replaced “phase out” with “phase down” for coal. In the bargain, developed countries got to retain the same for oil and gas — undoing decades of negotiations.

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Forests: India has prioritised growth by diverting forest land for non-forest use (deforestation). In July last year, the Lok Sabha was told that India lost over 1.73 lakh hectares of forest land to activities such as mining, irrigation, road projects, and others in a decade.

It now gives forest clearances without abiding by the mandatory forest protection laws (PESA and FRA) and also gives wholesome exemptions from green clearances for a wide range of infrastructure projects. It refused to commit to protecting forests (carbon sinks) or reducing deforestation in its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) of 2022 on the plea that its forest cover was growing — something that experts have consistently disputed.

Agriculture: Methane is considered more dangerous than carbon dioxide in trapping heat, and its main source is agriculture and allied activities (contributing about 14 per cent of greenhouse gases (GHGs) — mainly rice cultivation and livestock. While little can be done about livestock, “crop diversification away from rice” that the Aayog recommends is tough, given the sensitivity around the minimum support price (MSP) regime and farmers’ incomes.

Its suggestion for “scaling natural and chemical-free farming interventions” is sound but difficult to implement too, given that despite over a decade of direct cash transfers for welfare schemes, including the PM-KISAN, fertiliser subsidy — at Rs 1.86 lakh crore in FY26 (RE) — goes directly to fertiliser companies, not farmers. That is, expect a slow transition to chemical-free farming.

Also read: India added a record renewable energy capacity of about 30 GW in 2024

Besides, India skipped committing to cutting down methane in its NDC of 2022 and at the global climate summits.

Critical minerals: On critical minerals, the Aayog report makes a startling recommendation: “Preserve environmental and social accountability: Retain public consultation, restrict expedited approvals to compliant proponents and mandate independent audits.”

Although public consultations are an essential sounding board for safeguarding the environment, India removed it (mandatory for green clearances) in September 2025 to fast-track the harnessing of critical minerals and rare-earth elements. Audits of projects are a rarity, and environmental protection could be a casualty of the developmental push.

Power: The key to both Viksit Bharat@2047 and Net Zero@2070 is the power sector. Among the key suggestions the Aayog has made are: retiring old and inefficient thermal power plants, particularly those of over 25 years with low efficiency and high emissions; investment in developing storage technologies for renewables and transmission of renewables to align with the commissioning timelines; and one-time DISCOM debt takeover.

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When it comes to renewables, the Aayog's optimism borders on the impractical. For example, although India has set up renewable capacity of over 50 per cent of the total, actual electricity use is only 24 per cent because of a lack of storage and transmission. Contrary to its suggestion, India should make a decisive shift to develop storage and transmission facilities before commissioning any new renewable project.

Similarly, its praise for the PLI scheme for advanced chemistry cells (ACCs) is debatable. Last month, Reliance Industries halted its ACC project because the Chinese suppliers it was in talks with refused to supply the necessary technology. How the project was approved without access to technology in the first place remains the question.

The other player in the field, the JSW Group, was still scouting for technology from abroad in November 2025. For the Aayog to assume that India will be able to set up manufacturing capacity of 50 GWh of ACCs and an additional 5 GWh for niche ACC technologies with the existing PLI scheme for ACC with an outlay of Rs 18,100 crore is far-fetched.

Transport: The transport sector accounts for 20 per cent of energy and 10 per cent of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The transition to net zero, the Aayog says, calls for several policy shifts that should begin with eliminating diesel vehicles, cutting down private car ownership by 20 per cent relative to the current level, adopting zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) in road transport, and a structural shift towards public and shared transport, among others.

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Again, these are sound proposals provided the policies and focus shift.

All the issues flagged so far are among those that call for policy shifts, which the Centre may not be keen to do. It prioritises growth over net zero despite the RBI’s 2023 estimate that the country risks losing “up to 4.5 per cent of India’s GDP” by 2030 due to climate change.

The actual transition to Net Zero@2070 will call for much more than just policy shifts.