Trump's tariff tirade: Can India weather the storm? | Talking Sense With Srini

US President Donald Trump’s tariff blitz is set to hit more than half of India’s exports to the US, threatening tens of billions of dollars in trade and millions of jobs in labour-heavy industries, a rupture that could roll back decades of steadily warming economic and strategic ties, warns The Federal’s Editor-in-Chief S Srinivasan on Talking Sense With Srini.

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Major exports hit

"Fifty-five per cent of India’s exports to the US are impacted," Srinivasan said.

"Twenty-five per cent of these tariffs are already in place, and another 25 per cent — the threat itself — has caused immense setbacks to industries like textiles, gems and jewellery, electronics, and marine products," he further said.

These sectors, he noted, are manpower-intensive, reliant on MSMEs, and face large-scale job losses if the measures persist.

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Skewed exemptions

While pharmaceuticals have been spared, Srinivasan argued the exemptions are skewed.

"Countries don’t trade, companies do. Look at how much Apple or Google take out of India — it’s significant. But products linked to them, like smartphones and laptops, are conveniently exempt."

India-US ties, he said, had been "steadily improving for decades" in defence, nuclear cooperation, and technology. "Trade was just one part of a larger strategic relationship. What’s happened now is a rude shock. Trump 2.0 is very different from his first term," he noted.

Also Read: Trump tariff crushes job-intensive sectors, spares those heavy on capital, tech

'Bunkum' claim

Quoting from Trump’s April 4 proclamation, Srinivasan said the White House justified its move as addressing "extraordinary threats" to US security from trade deficits — a claim he dismissed as "bunkum."

On whether this represented a diplomatic failure, he said, "The entire world didn’t see this coming. It’s not just India. But we’ve been moving closer to the US and away from our earlier non-aligned position — and now we are in a very difficult spot."

He called hopes that the upcoming Trump-Putin summit in Alaska might ease penalties “wishful thinking.” Even if relief came, he warned, "the goalposts keep shifting."

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Chance to reform

Drawing a parallel to the 1991 economic crisis, Srinivasan said today’s challenge is less severe but still offers scope for bold reforms. "A crisis always offers a chance to reform. We should diversify markets, improve logistics, help MSMEs, and make our products globally competitive. We must also re-establish leadership in multilateral forums," he added.

With the rules-based WTO framework eroding, Srinivasan said India must brace for a future shaped by "bilateral bullying." His prescription, "Stand on our own feet, strengthen ties with Europe, Southeast Asia, China, and friendly nations, and ensure our economy is future-proofed."

"The tariff storm may be Trump’s doing," he concluded, "but weatherproofing India’s economy is India’s job."

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