US-Venezuela conflict will cause negligible impact on India trade: GTRI
With bilateral trade already at historic lows due to US sanctions, India’s economic exposure to Venezuela remains minimal, says research group
The ongoing US-Venezuela conflict is expected to have a negligible impact on India’s trade and energy security, according to trade think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).
On January 4, US forces carried out a military operation in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife and transferring them to the United States to face charges, including narco-terrorism and drug trafficking.
Bilateral trade down
“India faces negligible impact, as trade with Venezuela has collapsed under sanctions, with crude imports down 81.3 per cent in FY2025 and overall bilateral trade remaining marginal,” GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava said.
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He added that for India, the developments in Venezuela are unlikely to have any material economic or energy implications. India was a major buyer of Venezuelan crude during the 2000s and 2010s. However, bilateral trade has weakened significantly since 2019, following US sanctions that forced India to sharply cut oil imports and scale back commercial ties to avoid secondary sanctions, Srivastava said.
As a result, India’s trade with Venezuela has continued to decline.
In FY2025, India’s total imports from Venezuela stood at USD 364.5 million, with crude oil accounting for USD 255.3 million — an 81.3 per cent decline from USD 1.4 billion in crude imports in FY2024.
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India’s exports to Venezuela remained modest at USD 95.3 million, led by pharmaceuticals worth USD 41.4 million.
No threat to India’s energy security
“Given the low trade volumes, existing sanctions constraints, and the large geographical distance, the current developments in Venezuela are not expected to have any meaningful impact on India’s economy or energy security,” Srivastava said.
Venezuela holds about 18 per cent of global oil reserves, more than Saudi Arabia (around 16 per cent), Russia (about 5–6 per cent), or the United States (around 4 per cent), according to estimates cited by GTRI.
(With agency inputs)