Sharp drop in Indian students seeking admission in Canada amid diplomatic row

The 'Canadian dream' seems to have gone sour for Indians, especially in the light of the current diplomatic standoff between the two nations.

In fact, the number of Indian students expressing interest in applying for higher education in Canada has sharply declined, according to education consultants.

This comes amid rising tensions over fresh allegations of 'India's hand' in the killing of Khalistani separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada.

Job permits issue

The numbers of Indian students headed there had dropped initially due to Canada's cap on international students in 2024 to approximately 3.6 lakh approved study permits (which is a 35 per cent drop from 2023) and changes in the process to acquire a study permit.

For example, from September this year, Canada cracked down on offering job permits, and students studying at private colleges offering licensed courses were not eligible for Post-Graduation Work Permits (PGWPs).

Watch | Can India fend off US pressure amid Canada fallout?

In 2015, Indian students with study permits had made up just 14.5 per cent of Canada's total international student population, according to the Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), a government agency. But by 2023, this figure had surged to 40.7 per cent.

Staring at decline

However, the numbers are dropping this year. As of August, 1,37,445 Indian students received study permits, marking a 4 per cent decrease from 2023.

There are currently around 6,00,000 Indian students in Canada, which includes new admissions as well. However, experts warn that the numbers can decline further if the situation doesn’t improve.

Education consultants The Federal spoke to reported a 70 per cent decline in interest from students seeking higher education in Canada. This trend is not solely due to diplomatic tensions but is also due to factors such as uncertainty surrounding visas, job prospects, and safety,which are also prompting many students to reconsider their options and explore alternative destinations.

Also read: India-Canada row: Third term at stake for Trudeau, credibility for India

Diplomatic tensions

Abhijit Zaveri, founder and Director of education consultancy Career Mosaic, told The Federal there's a “notable decline” in student interest in pursuing education in Canada, which is also largely influenced by the ongoing diplomatic situation between the two countries.

“In 2021, we facilitated the enrollment of around 1,000 students to join universities in Canada, which reflected a strong demand at the time. However, by the fall of 2024, that number had dropped by 70 per cent to just 300 students. Looking ahead, we anticipate a further decline to about 200 students in 2025,” shared Zaveri.

He further said that restoring stability in diplomatic relations will be the key to reversing this trend and rebuilding confidence among prospective students and their families.

Aritra Ghosal, founder and director, OneStep Global, concurred with this view. “Diplomatic tensions and global uncertainties have created some challenges, particularly around recruitment and mobility. Students and their families are becoming more cautious, especially with new aspirants feeling a greater sense of uncertainty. Parents, in particular, are more concerned about the matter of stability in the future and the safety of their children,” said Ghosal.

Also read: India-Canada row deepens divisions within Sikh diaspora: NAPA

Indians opt for other countries

Post-study work opportunities play a crucial role in shaping students' destination choices. Countries that offer flexible visa policies and promising long-term career prospects are likely to attract more students.

For years, Canada has been the preferred destination for Indian students, but the landscape is changing. More students are now turning their attention to opportunities in Germany and Ireland as viable alternatives and some are also opting for traditional education destinations for Indians such as the US and the UK.

Also read: Most Indian students are in Canada, 14 study in Pakistan too

“Destinations like Ireland, with its two-year post-study work visa, and Finland, which offers students the flexibility to work while studying and a two-year post-graduation permit, are becoming increasingly attractive. Additionally, New Zealand and Germany are gaining popularity due to their strong job markets and robust post-study work visa options,” Ghoshal said.

US, UK get more attractive

“Many are now looking towards the United States, given its broader range of universities and extensive STEM programmes, and the UK, which has relaxed post-study work visa regulations, making it an attractive option," Karan Gupta, founder of Karan Gupta Consulting, told The Federal.

"Netherlands and Spain are also becoming popular, especially for students seeking high-quality education at relatively lower costs compared to North American countries,” Gupta added.

Also read: What's troubling about allegations of India’s hand in killing of Khalistani activists in Canada

Regime change

With the elections looming in Canada next year, education consulting firms expressed cautious optimism in the scenario changing for the better over potential changes in immigration policies.

“A potential regime change could reset diplomatic relations, alleviating concerns about student safety and visa policies. A government more committed to resolving tensions diplomatically might enhance Canada’s appeal as a study destination.

"However, the impact on international student recruitment will depend on the new government's priorities, particularly regarding immigration, work permits, and, crucially, student safety,” Gupta pointed out.