As Bihar leans on caste, both NDA and INDIA struggle to hold vote bank together

The 2024 Lok Sabha election in Bihar appears to be rather caste-oriented instead of party-oriented, afflicting the poll prospects of both the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the INDIA bloc parties.

The NDA in Bihar may appear extremely strong on the surface but that could not be further from the truth. It seems to be struggling with compatibility issues and trust deficit among its four allies.

On the other hand, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the main constituent of the INDIA bloc in the state, is also facing a loss of its core Yadav votes due to the presence of the dominant Yadav candidates from the rival parties in the fray.

The situation has been reflected in the perceived lack of enthusiasm among the base voters of different allies and their reluctance to transfer their votes to the candidates of their parent party or combination.

Caste-oriented politics

The NDA constituents include the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Janata Dal (United) of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) headed by Chirag Paswan, and Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) led by former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi.

The INDIA bloc includes the RJD, Congress, CPI-ML, CPI, CPI(M), and Vikassheel Insaar Party (VIP) led by Mukesh Sahani.

Barring the BJP, Congress, and the Left parties, all the others are caste-based parties having a support base among castes or combination of castes identified with their respective leaders, who keep hopping from one alliance to the other for political survival.

Battle of political one-upmanship

In fact, just before the elections, all the four NDA constituents were at loggerheads due to their unrelenting battle of political one-upmanship. It is well-known that the JD(U), LJP, and HAM nourish grudges against each other and hold diametrically opposite views on caste reservation and many other issues.

It is understood that the Kurmis and Koeris of the famous Luv-Kush combination of Nitish Kumar were not passionate about voting for the LJP and HAM nominees in Jamui and Gaya and had the option to support RJD and Congress nominees in some polling stations.

Similarly, the Dusadh (Paswan) community, considered the vocal supporters of Chirag Paswan, and the Musahar caste, which is loyal to Jitan Ram Manjhi, did not show much interest in favouring the JD(U) candidates.

Former MLA and a senior leader of Kurmis, Satish Kumar, who is credited with holding a huge Kurmi rally in which Nitish Kumar was projected as the Kurmi leader in the mid-Nineties, told The Federal that his caste men and Koeris did not seem keen on voting for Manjhi in Gaya and the LJP nominee in Jamui.

In Nawada, too, the Kurmis appeared inclined towards the Kushwaha candidate from the RJD, he added.

Low voter turnout

Further adding to the NDA’s worry has been low voter turnout. Even though it claims the support of nearly 80 per cent of the population of the majority community, the first-phase polling on April 19 recorded a 5 per cent fall in voters’ turnout, while the second-phase on April 26 recorded a 4.34 per cent decrease.

In the first phase, the voter turnout was as low as 48.23 per cent across the four Lok Sabha constituencies of Aurangabad, Gaya, Jamui, and Nawada, compared to 53.47 per cent recorded in 2019. In the second phase, the overall turnout across the five constituencies of Kishanganj, Purnia, Katihar, Banka, and Bhagalpur was recorded at 58.58 per cent compared to 62.92 per cent in 2019.

In view of the voters’ perceived disinterest, JD(U) supremo Nitish Kumar addressed the party’s grassroots workers and panchayat presidents through video-conferencing on April 27, making a fervent appeal to unitedly vote for the NDA candidates and tell people about the works done by his government in the past 18 years.

Frosty ties

The ties between Nitish Kumar and BJP have been choppy even though he joined the NDA fold on January 28. Nitish had hinted earlier that he was not on the same page with the BJP due to its support to the LJP. On the contrary, the BJP says Nitish does not give space to his alliance partner.

Soon after the formation of the NDA government early this year, the selection of Samrat Choudhary and Vijay Kumar Sinha as deputy chief ministers set the tongue wagging in the political circles as both the BJP leaders have been bitter critics of Nitish.

While Samrat had vowed not to remove his saffron turban till he dislodged Nitish as chief minister, Sinha, as the Assembly Speaker, had a heated exchange of words on the floor of the state Assembly on March 15, 2022, over a Lakhisarai case.

Nitish is also annoyed with the BJP for backing out of the promise of holding the state Assembly elections along with the Lok Sabha polls.

Nitish’s vendetta politics

Nitish, who is known for his vendetta politics, appears to be unsparing towards Jitan Ram Manjhi for his betrayal in 2015.

Manjhi served as the Bihar chief minister between May 2014 and February 2015 when Nitish had stepped down following his party’s poor show in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. But Manjhi had to resign after facing accusations of engineering a split in the JD(U), paving the way for Nitish’s return to power in 2015. Even recently, Nitish had used derogatory terms for Manjhi in the state Assembly.

The JD(U) supremo has not yet reconciled with the LJP’s role in JD(U)’s poor performance in the 2020 Assembly elections in which his party won only 43 seats. The LJP, not part of the NDA then, could win only one seat but its candidates secured a substantial number of votes, damaging the electoral prospects of the JD(U).

The Samastipur spat

On the other hand, the Samastipur Lok Sabha seat has become a thorny issue for the NDA, as two ministers belonging to the JD(U) are fighting a proxy war through their children in this constituency, where polling is due on May 13.

While Rural Works Minister Ashok Chaudhary has secured a Lok Sabha ticket for his daughter Shambhavi Chaudhary from the LJP, another senior minister, Maheshwar Hazari, has secured a Congress nomination for his son Sunny Hazari. Both the ministers fielded their wards defying the diktats of Nitish Kumar.

Ashok Chaudhary has been a member of the inner coterie that coaxed Nitish to return to the NDA fold in January. Of late, Ashok has earned Nitish’s ire for hobnobbing with the LJP and has been ousted from the inner circle.

The JD(U) leadership is also facing pressure from the BJP and the LJP to remove Maheshwar Hazari from the council of ministers, as he has been campaigning for his son against the NDA candidate, violating the alliance dharma.

RJD’s Yadav troubles

Coming to the INDIA bloc, the RJD faces the desertion of its core Yadav vote bank in five constituencies — Purnia, Ujiarpur, Madhubani, Jhanjharpur and Banka.

In Purnia, the Yadav voters were divided between RJD’s non-Yadav candidate and the Independent Yadav candidate Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav. In Banka, the RJD nominee, Jayprakash Narayan Yadav, is challenging the sitting JD(U) MP Giridhari Yadav. In Ujiarpur, the RJD is facing a tough challenge from BJP’s Yadav strongman and Minister of State for Home Affairs Nityanand Rai.

In Madhubani, the Yadavas had voted considerably in favour of the BJP nominee and sitting MP Ashok Yadav, who had won with a record margin of over 4 lakh votes in 2019. In Jhanjharpur, Gulab Yadav has secured nomination from the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and poses threat to the INDIA bloc’s VIP nominee Suman Mahaseth.

Hence, RJD leader Tejaswi Yadav needs to ensure that his core vote bank of Yadavs remain united in the next five phases.

The NDA, on the other hand, needs to evolve a strategy to douse the fire and prevent further erosion of mutual trust; else, the sloth on part of the electorate might adversely affect the NDA’s poll prospects in Bihar.