As Manipur finishes polling, division of votes remains a big concern

While the dissonance, mistrust, and insecurity in the air in Manipur is yet to settle down completely, the northeastern state will finishing voting for the general election today (April 26).

The two Lok Sabha seats, Inner and the Outer Manipur, may have different socio-political dynamics, but people have identified a common agenda – the restoration of peace.

The Outer Manipur seat is reserved for ST (Scheduled Tribes) comprising all the five hill districts of Manipur with a few assembly segments of Thoubal and Imphal East districts of the valley region. On the other hand, the Inner Manipur seat consists of all the districts in the valley region, namely Imphal East, Imphal West, Bishnupur, and Thoubal districts.

Two phases

In the first phase, held on April 19, polling was scheduled for 47 assembly segments under both the Inner and Outer constituencies. In the second phase, being held today, 13 assembly segments, all under the Outer parliamentary constituency, are voting. This implies that half the assembly segments under the Outer Manipur constituency voted in the first phase itself.

It may be noted that Manipur’s violence for almost a year now is based on the “hills versus valley” division, with the hills having a majority of tribals including the Kukis, and the valley predominantly inhabited by the Meiteis, who account for over half the state’s total population. The violence created a deep division between the Meiteis and the Kukis.

Boycott or strategy?

Churanchandpur became one of the boiling cauldrons of Manipur’s ethnic clashes and so were Chandel and Kangpokpi, the names that perhaps have not faded away from collective memory and probably will not happen so easily, at least for the people of Manipur. The Kukis are now uneasily absent from representation in the election. There is not a single Kuki candidate in the Lok Sabha election in Manipur.

One narrative is that it started with the Indigenous Tribal Leaders Forum’s (ITLF) appeal to not field a candidate from the Kuki-Zo community. ITLF, being an influential Kuki-Zo group, may have created a consensus in the community.

All four candidates in the Outer Manipur seat are Nagas, where the main fight is very likely to happen between the Congress and the Naga People’s Front (NPF), which enjoys the support of the BJP.

Congress candidate Alfred Kanngam S Arthur belongs to the Tangkhul Naga community and so does NPF’s Kachui Timothy Zimik. The other two candidates, fighting as independents, also belong to the Naga community.

Is the seemingly-collective decision of not fielding a candidate a strategy or a way of protest? Thangminlen Kipgen, the spokesperson of Kuki Inpi Manipur (KIM), the apex body of the Kukis, in an earlier statement said that the decision was made to avoid a Naga versus Kuki fight. This may sound like a strategic position, but was the idea of boycotting the election completely not present in the community?

Three schools of thought

Kim Gangte, former MP from the Outer Manipur seat and a rights activist based in Manipur, told The Federal that there are three schools of thought regarding Kukis' electoral participation.

One moots a boycott of the election due to the perceived 'step-motherly treatment' of the Union and state governments towards the community. The second school is all for going for the NOTA option, while the third thinks the community should exercise its right to vote. Gangte said she belongs to the third school of thought.

Thongkholal Haokip, an assistant professor in JNU, Delhi, told The Federal that boycotting the election was a convincing idea for the Kuki leaders initially. The community did feel grossly ignored by governments in Delhi and Imphal, he added.

“The feeling that ‘India doesn’t care for us’ pervades in the community,” said Haokip.

However, some Meitei political observers based in the valley region The Federal spoke to believe that abstaining from the electoral contest is the best decision for the Kuki people as they don’t want their votes to be divided.

Splitting of votes

As Haokip indicated, the chances of a Kuki vote split stays strong. He also believes that some underground armed insurgent groups may 'force' Kuki voters to vote for the NPF candidate. This view is understandable when we look at the violence during the first phase.

While the first phase witnessed some violence, with gunmen ransacking several polling booths, the re-polling in 11 booths on April 22 resulted in an enthusiastic participation of people that increased the total voter turnout to over 81 per cent. Notably, all the booths that had re-polling are under the Inner Manipur constituency.

There are several armed groups from both Kuki and Naga communities. What role they will play is not very clear as none of them has openly backed any candidate this time. Even the position of Suspension of Operation (SOO) groups is not clear. SOO is a cease fire signed between insurgent groups and the Union government. Observers feel there remains a chance of a few groups being bribed to pressure voters to support a particular candidate.

Division of Naga votes

However, according to Kshetrimayum Santa, the convener of the INDIA bloc in Manipur and a CPI(M) leader, Naga votes will get divided for various factors.

“The independent candidate Kho John is a former president of the United Naga Council (UNC) and he has a strong base amongst the Nagas. He may get around one lakh votes,” Santa told The Federal.

The UNC is the largest civil society organisation of the Naga community in the Northeast and this time they are supporting the NPF candidate. “Moreover, the Zeliangrong United Front (ZUF) is against the NSCN, so it may likely support the NPF,” said Santa.

Elaborating further, Kim Gangte said, “Kho John belongs to the Poumai Naga community, which has more votes than the Tangkhul Nagas. But the NPF chose a Tangkhul. Probably he was not chosen by Muivah of NSCN. Naturally, Kho John was upset and filed his candidature as an independent.”

Other observers believe that Kukis are largely supporting the Congress candidate, in a conscious move against the BJP. However, the division of Kuki votes will help the BJP’s ally in Manipur, the NPF.

Other observers think even the Kukis will vote for the NPF. “Kukis may not go against the Nagas. They share a common interest because of their shared geographical space in the hills. That equation is also shaping up,” said one observer under the condition of anonymity.

KIM urges Kukis to vote

The appeal of boycotting the election still remains. The Kuki Inpi Sadar Hills recently called on Kukis to abstain from voting. Some other Kuki bodies also have appealed similarly.

However, the general secretary of Kuki Inpi Manipur (KIM), Haopu Gangte, in a message sent to The Federal, said: “KIM never took a decision to abstain from voting. Kuki Inpi Sadar Hills is a district Inpi. It is one of the branches of KIM and KIM doesn't acknowledge such a decision. KIM urges each and every Kuki to exercise their right to vote.”

“It is strange for me that the BJP, instead of fielding its own candidate, supports the NPF, which is a community party. This shows that the BJP has no courage to fight on their own in the hills,” Gangte told The Federal.

Calling the BJP the main enemy of all the people of Manipur, Gangte said Kukis will not support the NPF this time only because it has the BJP’s support. “Otherwise, the Kukis may have supported the NPF,” she said.

Notably, in the previous parliamentary election in 2019, NPF registered its victory from the Outer seat. Considering Gangte’s comment, it is apparent that the Kukis supported NPF in the previous election.

Restoration of peace – the only issue

This election in Manipur revolves around only one issue – restoration of peace and normalcy for both Kukis and Meiteis.

“The Meiteis are also upset with the BJP-led Union and state governments and they will vote for an alternative this time. This gives the Congress a fair chance in both the Inner and the Outer constituencies. In the Inner seat, Professor Akoijam has set the discourse and the media has also been balanced in a way. Akoijam also supported the Meitei cause of getting ST status while strongly pointing out that the killing of Kukis will bring no fortune to anyone," said Gangte.