Can Modi magic and OBCs help BJP trump all its troubles in Haryana?

The two election-winning strategies that helped the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) reach the height of power in Indian politics and form the government in Delhi for three consecutive terms will be put to the test in Haryana Assembly polls this time.

The two-pronged poll strategy the party follows is, one, reaching out to the Other Backward Classes (OBCs) voters by means of its social engineering strategy and, two, its reliance on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s charisma to win elections in states where the local leadership is not so popular.

Modi is still popular, but…

In Haryana, the people’s major grudge seems to be against the state leadership and not Modi. Ratan Singh Deshwal, a 40-year-old farmer from Pondry village in Hathin constituency, said as much.

“PM Modi is the best leader for the country, we have no problems with his leadership. Our unhappiness is because of the leaders of the BJP in Haryana. They have not stood by us. But this election is not about electing the prime minister, it’s about picking the chief minister. So, we will vote accordingly,” said Deshwal.

OBCs vs Jats

In fact, even in the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year, the BJP did not get a majority in Haryana on its own for the first time in 10 years.

While the BJP is hoping that its last-minute gamble of appointing OBC leader Nayab Singh Saini as the chief minister will pay off, the party is also focusing on the 60 Assembly seats where the Jat community is not in dominance or does not play a decisive role.

Can Modi beat anti-incumbency?

In 2014, too, Modi’s unmatched popularity had powered the BJP’s meteoric rise to power in Haryana. The BJP first formed a majority government at the Centre and then in Haryana later that year.

Similarly, in 2019, the BJP won all 10 Lok Sabha seats in Haryana and also became the single largest party in Haryana.

However, the BJP government in Haryana is now facing a major anti-incumbency sentiment. Its impact was evident in March when the BJP central leadership decided to replace ML Khattar with Saini as the chief minister.

Too little time to judge Saini

Harjit Singh Grewal, senior leader and national executive member of the BJP, told The Federal that six months was too little time to judge Saini’s performance.

“We cannot deny that there would be anti-incumbency, especially when the state government has been in power continuously for a decade. Saini has proved to be a better leader for the BJP in Haryana because he meets all the BJP workers, senior leaders, and ministers regularly. But then, all issues cannot be solved in just six months when you have to contest both Lok Sabha and assembly elections,” Grewal pointed out.

Rebels and infighting

But the BJP’s problems do not stop at anti-incumbency or the ire over farmers’ protest, wrestlers’ agitation, or Agnipath scheme. The real challenge is the ongoing infighting in the party because of the poll ticket distribution.

To understand the magnitude of the problem, it has to be noted that at least 19 rebel candidates have decided to contest the polls as Independents. And their clout can be gauged from the fact that Saini and other senior party leaders have been trying to convince them to either not contest or not campaign against the BJP.

While some leaders, such as Rajiv Jain and Ram Bilas Sharma, have agreed not to campaign against the BJP, the problem of infighting persists.

Wrangle over CM’s seat

Then, there is the contest over the CM’s seat. Even though the party’s central leadership has made it clear that the election would be contested under Saini’s leadership and he is the chief ministerial candidate, another senior leader, Anil Vij, has claimed that if the BJP forms the next government, he should be considered as a prospective chief minister.

Vij is not the only one. Several senior leaders, including Om Prakash Dhankar, the national secretary of the BJP, is also an aspirant for the chief minister’s post.

The real contest

Political analysts, however, believe that while both the Congress and the BJP are dealing with infighting and rebel candidates, the real fight will ultimately be between the two parties and not the rebel Independents.

“Some independent candidates may win in the Haryana polls, just like in all other elections, but the real contest is between the Congress and the BJP. The Jat community is in a decisive position in almost 30 Assembly seats, while in the remaining 60 seats, the BJP is planning to win the majority seats to form the government for the third time,” Balram Sharma, political science professor at DAV College, Karnal, told The Federal.

Threat from core voters

While the political fortunes of the BJP are dwindling because of the protests by farmers, wrestlers, and aspiring soldiers, the party is also struggling because its core voter base, the traders, are annoyed over petty corruption and price rise.

“We had very high expectations from the Haryana government, but it has failed to check price rise and petty corruption. These two issues are everyday problems. We are businessmen; we know that we have to pay some money to get our work done. But petty corruption has risen manifold,” said Suresh Mittal, a wholesale grain dealer at the Gharaunda wholesale market.

UPS vs OPS

To further add to the BJP’s stress in Haryana, the middle class, which forms the core voter base of the party, is miffed with the newly launched Unified Pension Scheme (UPS) and feels the Union government must consider bringing back the Old Pension Scheme (OPS).

“The UPS is good, but it is not OPS, and we will remember that while electing a new government. Most Group 3 employees feel that the OPS should be brought back. We expected the state government to take some step or maybe speak to the Centre for us, but nothing happened,” said Anil Kumar, a 30-year-old Group 3 employee in Karnal.