What caused Jagan Mohan Reddy’s rout in Andhra Pradesh

Chief Minister YS Jaganmohan Reddy’s YSR Congress is poised for a humiliating defeat in Andhra Pradesh. The party which campaigned to sweep all the 175 seats in the Assembly with a slogan ‘Why Not 175’ is finding it difficult to even qualify itself for the status of Opposition Party. At the time of writing this write up the YSR Congress is leading just in 11 constituencies. This is an unimaginable fall from 151 seats the party won in 2019.

For five years, Jaganmohan Reddy pumped a whopping Rs 2.68 lakh crore into various direct benefit transfer (DBT) schemes and distributed another Rs 1.78 lakh crore under non-DBT programmes. According to the party’s claim, of the total 1,64, 68,591 families in the state, 1,41,386 families benefited from one scheme or the other. The party believed that this amounts to a support from a staggering 2.8 crore voters (If the average family size is two) and this is equal to 70 per cent of the total electorate of 4.09 crore.

Jagan himself revealed that 66 per cent of the beneficiaries were women. This army of beneficiaries infused an enormous confidence in Jagan that he went to the extent of claiming that he would win all 175 seats of the House. But today's result is a fell far short from his loud claim.

What went wrong?

When 46-year-old became chief minister in 2019, instead of concentrating on building the party and winning the hearts of the people, he decided to tread an adventurous path. Jagan wanted to demolish whatever his predecessor N Chandrababu Naidu started to create his own mark on the state which was still in the throes of partition: Hyderabad had gone to Telangana, the new capital was under construction, the state was not able attract investment, and unemployment was a huge problem.

But instead of addressing these issues, Jagan first wanted to destroy the Capital city Amaravati, which he believed was coming up in Kammas stronghold. So, he floated a theory of three capitals in three regions instead of what Chandrababu Naidu touted as a global city.

Jagan planned a judicial capital for Kurnool in Rayalaseema, executive capital for Vizag in north Andhra and a legislative capital in Amaravati. This grand scheme fell flat following the Supreme Court verdict. It satisfied none of the regions. And he could not complete the Polavaram project which his father started.

He could not provide jobs to the youth who started migrating to Hyderabad, Chennai or Bengaluru. His relationship with government employees also soured due to unsatisfactory implementation of the recommendations of Pay Revision Commission.

Brewing discontent

Jagan refused to acknowledge the discontent brewing in the same families that were beneficiaries of the welfare schemes due to hike in the power tariff, bus fare, liquor rates, jobless youth and growing prices.

“Jagan believed that he was pressing the button that transfers DBT money into accounts of the women and they would reciprocate it by pressing the FAN button on the voting machine. But it proved wrong,” admitted a party functionary reflecting on the causes of the dismal performance in elections.

Prof KS Chalam, noted economist from Vizag, said the entire north Andhra was upset with Jagan on two accounts and it was reflected in the results of elections. “First, his promise of making Vizag the state capital failed to please the people of Visakhapatnam, Srikakulam and Vizianagaram districts because it had unleashed grabbing of lands of SCs, STs and OBCs of the region. Second, he failed to sincerely oppose the proposed disinvestment of Vizag steel. Ever since he began talking about Vizag as the capital, the crime rate had begun to rise. The people of the region seem to have expressed their opposition to his policies by voting to the opposition party,” Prof Chalam, former vice chancellor of Andhra University, said.

Callous attitude

According to Vallampalli Laxamna Reddy, convener of Jana Chaitanya Vedika, a civil society organisation, it was Jagan’s contempt for democratic niceties that spelt disaster for his party. “He stopped coming to the secretariat. He stopped meeting people. He entrusted the administration to his advisers. His approach towards farmers of Amaravati capital who offered land for the capital construction was inhuman. His callous attitude towards unemployed youth, teachers and government employees made him unpopular among many sections," Reddy said.

Telugu Language campaigner and scholar Kuradi Chandrasekhar Kalkura is of the view that Jagan could not develop the same rapport with the people as his father enjoyed. “His father YS Rajasekhar Reddy was highly accessible to the public. He devoted Monday to public interactions. But Jagan believed only in money distribution. The lack of human touch in his style is evident in his confinement to his Tadepalli Palace. He unleashed his party leaders on villages to steal sand and grab land which ultimately made his party detestable in the eyes of the public including the beneficiaries of his schemes,” Kalkura, a friend of YSR, told The Federal.