Amit Shah's 'no vacancy' comment, and the renewed stature of Nitish

In the latest episode of The Federal's YouTube program Capital Beat, senior journalists Ashok Mishra and Faizan Ahmad examined the political undercurrents in Bihar following Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s statement that there was “no vacancy” for the Chief Minister’s post. Shah appeared to have reaffirmed Nitish Kumar’s position at the helm of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

Shah’s remark, which came after weeks of speculation about the NDA’s chief ministerial candidate, is seen as a significant climbdown from his earlier stance that newly-elected legislators would decide the next Chief Minister. The timing of his statement - weeks before the state elections - has led political observers to describe it as an exercise in damage control amid the growing influence of the Janata Dal (United).

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NDA leaders, including Chirag Paswan and Samrat Chaudhary, once vocal critics of Nitish Kumar, have also begun to publicly endorse his leadership. This coordinated effort signals an attempt to project unity within the NDA as the alliance faces renewed challenges from the Mahagathbandhan led by Tejashwi Yadav.

NDA’s strongest pillar in Bihar

Faizan Ahmad said Nitish Kumar continues to be the most recognisable face of the NDA in Bihar, having served as chief minister for nearly two decades. He pointed out that the BJP lacks a comparable leader in the state who can command a similar appeal.

“The BJP is the largest party nationally, but in Bihar it cannot assert its identity independently. It still depends on Nitish Kumar for its political survival,” Faizan observed.

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He noted that the NDA’s campaigners, including Uttar Pradesh Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya, have publicly acknowledged Nitish as the alliance’s leader and the likely chief minister if the NDA retains power.

Ahmad explained that this alignment comes after continuous attacks from Tejashwi Yadav, who questioned why the NDA had not announced its chief ministerial face when the opposition had already projected him as theirs. Shah’s “no vacancy” comment was therefore seen as a response to these criticisms and an attempt to settle leadership doubts within the NDA ranks.

BJP’s political compulsion

Ashok Mishra said the BJP’s position is driven by electoral compulsions rather than political choice. He explained that Nitish Kumar commands a substantial voter base, particularly among Extremely Backward Castes (EBCs), Koeris, and Kurmis, who together form a decisive section of the electorate.

“The NDA’s core support base depends heavily on Nitish Kumar’s appeal among backward classes,” Mishra stated. “If he is not projected as the chief ministerial candidate, confusion will arise among voters, and the alliance risks losing a significant chunk of its traditional vote share.”

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He added that the BJP’s core strength in Bihar - upper castes and Vaishya voters - accounts for only around 15 per cent of the population. Without the EBC, Kurmi, and Koeri votes brought in by JD(U), the NDA’s prospects of returning to power would weaken considerably.

Historical pattern

Mishra recalled that Nitish Kumar’s leadership has historically been central to the NDA’s electoral success in Bihar. In 2005, he said, the announcement of Nitish as the alliance’s chief ministerial face during the second phase of polling helped the NDA secure victory. The same pattern was repeated in the 2010 and 2020 elections, when Nitish was projected as the coalition’s leader and subsequently took oath as Chief Minister.

He added that any ambiguity on this front could cost the NDA heavily in 2025.

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“Unless the BJP and its allies categorically declare Nitish Kumar as their chief ministerial face, the EBC votes will drift and create internal confusion,” Mishra warned.

Both journalists noted that the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) led by Chirag Paswan had played a disruptive role in the 2020 polls by contesting independently and cutting into JD(U)’s vote share, which indirectly weakened the NDA. Learning from that episode, the BJP appears keen to avoid a repeat of such fragmentation.

Women voters

Faizan Ahmad highlighted that Nitish Kumar enjoys a strong following among women voters, cutting across caste and community lines.

“He has consistently received the maximum support from women voters in Bihar, across all elections since 2010,” he said.

He explained that this factor has contributed to Nitish Kumar’s sustained popularity, even when the NDA’s political equations have shifted. Women voters, he said, view Nitish as a leader who has delivered welfare programmes and governance stability, making them a critical constituency for the JD(U).

Ahmad noted that this demographic advantage explains why the BJP cannot afford to sideline Nitish.

“No party in Bihar can ignore the 40 per cent vote share that includes women, EBCs, and backward castes who continue to stand by Nitish Kumar,” he added.

BJP’s political pragmatism

While BJP leaders have publicly declared that they are contesting under Nitish Kumar’s leadership, Ahmad observed that the central leadership has avoided explicitly naming him as the chief ministerial candidate.

“The language used is deliberate,” he said. “Leaders are saying Nitish is our leader, but not committing that he will remain chief minister for another five years.”

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He noted that Amit Shah’s use of the phrase “no vacancy” was primarily aimed at deflecting opposition attacks rather than announcing a formal decision. However, within Bihar, the BJP appears to have accepted the ground reality that it needs JD(U)’s support and Nitish’s leadership to maintain its electoral footing.

Both Mishra and Ahmad concluded that the BJP’s recent shift reflects political pragmatism. The party’s national dominance does not translate into state-level control in Bihar, where JD(U)’s social coalition and Nitish’s enduring appeal remain the NDA’s most valuable assets.

Delicate alliance

The discussion underscored that the BJP-JD(U) relationship is one of strategic dependence rather than ideological alignment. The BJP’s climbdown, the journalists said, reflects its acknowledgment of Nitish Kumar’s indispensability in Bihar’s political landscape.

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With elections approaching, the NDA’s challenge lies in maintaining cohesion while managing internal ambitions. As both panellists pointed out, Nitish Kumar’s voter base - spanning EBCs, Kurmis, Koeris, and women - remains the coalition’s backbone. Any hint of instability or lack of clarity over leadership could fracture that support, potentially benefitting the opposition.

(The content above has been transcribed from video using a fine-tuned AI model. To ensure accuracy, quality, and editorial integrity, we employ a Human-In-The-Loop (HITL) process. While AI assists in creating the initial draft, our experienced editorial team carefully reviews, edits, and refines the content before publication. At The Federal, we combine the efficiency of AI with the expertise of human editors to deliver reliable and insightful journalism.)