Bihar: Chirag Paswan’s move to contest assembly polls sign of bigger ambitions

Union minister Chirag Paswan’s ambition to contest the upcoming Bihar assembly polls has infused a fresh element of political intrigue in the eastern state. On Monday (June 2), the Lok Janshakti Party (Ramvilas) chief declared that he would “definitely contest” the upcoming polls if doing so would improve the victory prospects of his party and the ruling NDA coalition.

The announcement by Paswan, a third-term Lok Sabha MP and son of late Dalit stalwart Ramvilas Paswan, comes at a time when constituents of the NDA in Bihar — Nitish Kumar’s JD(U), the BJP, Paswan’s own LJP (RV), Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM, and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) — are set to begin seat-sharing negotiations for the polls due in October.

‘Bihar first, Bihari first’

“I have already said that I don’t see myself in politics of the Centre for a prolonged period... I have my own vision — Bihar first, Bihari first. I want my state Bihar to stand on a par with developed states. After becoming an MP for the third time, I feel this may not be possible if I stay in Delhi...The party is evaluating whether my candidature will benefit it; if my contesting the election improves the strike rate of my party and performance of our alliance then I will definitely contest,” Paswan told reporters.

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Speculation over Paswan’s plans to enter state politics has been gaining ground for some time now as have assertions by members of his party that the Hajipur MP has proved himself worthy to ascend to the CM’s chair; the latter being an unsettling claim for chief minister Nitish Kumar.

Spoilsport

Paswan and Nitish are known to share an uneasy relationship. In 2020, it was Paswan’s decision to break from the NDA in Bihar and field candidates across 135 of the state’s 243 seats that many believed was singularly responsible for the steep fall in seats that the JD (U) eventually won.

Of the 115 seats the JD (U) contested, it won only 43 while the BJP, which in an uncharacteristically magnanimous move chose to continue with Nitish as CM after the results, bagged 74 of the 110 seats it fought.

The LJP, which hadn’t yet split between the factions led by Paswan and his uncle Pashupati Paras, could win only one of the 135 seats it contested. But poll data shows that in at least 26 seats, the votes its candidates polled were higher than the margin of defeat for JD (U) candidates.

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In other half a dozen seats, the LJP’s candidates had also polled higher votes than the margin of defeat for smaller NDA partners such as Majhi’s HAM and then alliance partner Mukesh Sahni’s Vikassheel Insaan Party (now part of the RJD-led grand alliance).

Many believe it was Paswan’s decision to go solo that laid the groundwork five years ago for the BJP to start chipping away at the unpredictable Nitish’s JD (U). The union minister had then, as he frequently does now, called himself Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘Hanuman’.

Orchestrated by BJP

Sources in the Bihar NDA told The Federal that Paswan’s “sudden interest” in contesting the upcoming assembly polls is being “orchestrated from the very top of BJP’s leadership (sic)”. They added that the likelihood of Manjhi and Kushwaha also seeking a larger share of seats, with a majority of such constituencies being part of Nitish’s JD (U) quota “cannot be discounted”.

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“There are constituencies where the electoral strength of JD(U) overlaps with that of the LJP, HAM, or RLM because the core vote base of these parties is similar since all their leaders or, in Paswan’s case, the original party formed by his father came out from the same Janata parivar. In the last assembly elections, the LJP proved its strength and even in last year’s Lok Sabha polls they won all the five seats allotted to them in the alliance. Chirag’s appeal among Dalits and young voters has definitely been increasing and the alliance will benefit if he and his party are given a bigger share of seats than what LJP used to contest earlier,” a Bihar BJP leader told The Federal.

High anti-incumbency

There also seems to be a whisper campaign within the NDA that internal surveys conducted by the BJP suggest there is high anti-incumbency in several JD (U) constituencies “not only because of the candidate but because the CM’s personal credibility is not what it used to be and there are also concerns about his health because of some of his videos that have gone viral in recent months,” a senior BJP minister in the Nitish-led government said.

Also Read: Chirag Paswan bats for nationwide caste census

If the strategy to shave off seats from Nitish’s share succeeds, the upcoming elections may see the BJP emerge as senior partner in the alliance for the first time in terms of the number of seats it contests. This would give the saffron party ground to further expand its electoral footprint in Bihar.

Dalit, EBC factor

Sources in the Bihar BJP also argue that by aligning with Paswan’s quest for a larger role in state politics while slyly egging him and Manjhi on, another leader with an axe to grind with Nitish, to seek a larger pie of seats, the NDA aspires to blunt the aggressive Dalit and EBC (Extremely Backward Caste) outreach of the Tejashwi Yadav-led Grand Alliance of RJD, Congress, Left, and VIP.

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The EBCs and Dalits collectively account for over 56 percent of Bihar’s population as per the caste survey commissioned and published by the short-lived Grand Alliance government in October 2022. Both communities have been strident supporters of the JD (U) for most part of the past two decades.

Aggressive wooing

The RJD-led mahagathbandhan has been wooing both these blocs aggressively since last year’s Lok Sabha polls. Sources in the RJD told The Federal that in the run up to the assembly polls, Tejashwi and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi plan to announce several big-ticket promises to further empower these communities as well as Other Backward Castes.

These could include a nationwide campaign pitching for Backward Caste reservations, on the lines of the existing SC and ST reservation, in seats in Lok Sabha and state assemblies and the promise to introduce a caste-based quota in the judiciary and in allotment of government contracts. The RJD is also planning several Atipichda Jagao rallies as part of its EBC outreach while the Congress has already been conducting Samvidhaan Sammelans to press for SC, ST, and backward caste empowerment.

Nitish, JD(U) trapped in pincer move

By asserting that there is “no vacancy for the post of Bihar CM” and that Nitish “will be CM again after the poll results”, Paswan may have dismissed rumours of him gunning for Bihar’s top political throne. Yet, if Nitish and his party colleagues remain uneasy, it would be because of the evident pincer move they find themselves trapped in — with NDA allies and Grand Alliance rivals both closing in on JD (U) territory.

Also Read: Cong resorts to playing 'Dalit card' whenever its defeat is certain: Chirag Paswan

Sources in the LJP (RV) say that unlike five years ago, Paswan, for now, doesn’t plan to directly challenge Nitish’s superficial supremacy within the NDA’s Bihar chapter. He would, instead, continue to play Modi’s Hanuman while launching strikes at Nitish through proxies. A sign of this was visible a day before Paswan told reporters that Nitish “will be CM after the poll results” while simultaneously throwing his hat in the electoral arena for the upcoming poll bout.

‘Hope of entire Bihar’

On Sunday, in a series of posts on X, Paswan’s brother-in-law and Jamui MP Arun Bharti said that at a recent meeting of his party’s executive body, “a proposal was passed unanimously that he (Paswan) should contest the upcoming Assembly elections himself” and that party leaders also felt that the Hajipur MP should contest the polls from a general seat instead of one reserved for Dalits “so that a message goes out that he is now ready to lead entire Bihar and not just one section”.

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Bharti added, “When I travelled across the state’s villages, people everywhere had only one demand — that Chirag should now play a bigger role... Chirag Paswan today is not just a representative, he is the hope of entire Bihar and his move (to contest state elections) will give new direction to Bihar’s politics”.

How Nitish Kumar, Bihar’s ultimate warhorse of political somersaults, interprets this and decides his next move would be interesting to observe.