Bihar: 2 more exit polls project NDA win; one predicts RJD as largest party

Two more exit polls have pointed to an NDA victory in Bihar with one predicting that the RJD would emerge as the single-largest party like the 2020 assembly elections in the state.

Both Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya forecast a disappointing electoral debut for Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj. The results of the Assembly polls will be announced on Friday (November 14).

Axis My India’s forecasts

The Axis My India Exit Poll on Wednesday (November 12) predicted that the NDA would be ahead of the Mahagathbandhan, but the RJD would emerge as the single-largest party.

Axis My India predicted that the NDA would win between 121 and 141 seats, and the Mahagathbandhan between 98 and 118 seats. It gave zero to two seats to the Jan Suraaj.

In its party-wise break-up, Axis My India predicted that the RJD would be the single-largest party getting 67–76 seats, followed by the JD(U) at 56–62 seats, BJP 50–56 seats, Congress 17–21 seats, Vikassheel Insaan Party 3–5 seats, and Left parties 10–14 seats.

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According to the exit poll, the NDA would get a vote share of 43 per cent, Mahagathbandhan 41 per cent, and the Jan Suraaj 4 per cent.

It also claimed that while 34 per cent people want to see RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav as the chief minister, 22 per cent want incumbent Nitish Kumar (JD-U) to remain at the helm.

The exit poll also gave a gender-wise break-up of vote share. It projected that while the NDA would get 41 per cent male and 45 per cent female votes, the Mahagathbandhan would get 42 per cent male and 40 per cent female votes.

Today’s Chanakya’s predictions

Today’s Chanakya forecast that while the BJP and its allies would get 160 seats (with a plus-minus margin of error of 12 seats), the RJD and its allies would bag 77 seats (with a plus-minus margin of error of 12 seats).

It forecast that the BJP and its allies would bag 44 per cent (plus-minus 3 per cent) vote share and the RJD and its allies would get 38 per cent (plus-minus 3 pr cent) votes.

Unanimous projections

The projections came a day after all major exit polls predicted a return of the NDA government in Bihar with a big victory over the Mahagathbandhan. All exit polls have unanimously forecast a poor electoral debut for Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj.

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While the Matrize Exit Poll forecast the NDA getting 147–167 seats, the Mahagathbandhan 70–90, and the Jan Suraaj 0–2 seats, Dainik Bhaskar predicted 145–160 seats for the NDA and 73–91 for the Mahagathbandhan.

The People’s Insight predicted 133–148 seats for the NDA, 87–102 for the Mahagathbandhan, and 0–2 for Jan Suraaj.

The People’s Pulse gave 133–159 seats to the NDA, 75–101 to the Mahagathbandhan, and 0–5 to Prashant Kishore’s party.

The JVC forecast 135–150 seats for the NDA and 88–103 for the Mahagathbandhan. The Polstrat predicted 133–148 seats for the NDA, and 87–102 for the Mahagathbandhan.

While the Chanakya Strategies gave the NDA 130–138 eats, 100–108 to the Mahagathbandhan, and zero to Jan Suraaj, pollster P-Marq predicted the NDA to win 142–162 seats, Mahagathbandhan 80–98 and Jan Suraaj 1–4.

Record turnout

The Bihar polls were conducted in two phases on November 6 and 11, and the results will be announced on November 14.

Also read: Bihar Assembly election: Will exit polls get it right? What does record turnout imply?

The majority mark in the 243-member Assembly is 122.

Bihar on Tuesday recorded its highest-ever voter turnout of 67.14 per cent, provisionally, at the close of polling in the second and final phase of the high-stakes elections, seen as a veritable referendum on the state’s longest-serving chief minister, Nitish Kumar.

(With agency inputs)