Bihar election: NDA blazes past majority mark as Nitish bucks anti-incumbency

Early counting trends in Bihar indicated a decisive lead for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), with figures showing the alliance moving well past the halfway mark and widening its advantage through the afternoon. The panel discussion on Capital Beat featured senior journalist Ashok Mishra, political science professor Sanjay Kumar, and The Federal’s Political Editor Puneet Nicholas Yadav, who examined the rapidly shifting numbers as the Election Commission updated its constituency tallies.

Follow Bihar election results LIVE here

Initial figures showed the NDA leading in around 194 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan’s numbers remained significantly lower. Constituency margins continued to expand in favour of the NDA as counting progressed, particularly for the BJP and JD(U).

NDA numbers surge to majority mark

The BJP recorded strong gains early in the day with leads in 88 seats, while the JD(U) showed a higher-than-expected performance by crossing 78 seats. The Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) (LJP-RV) was ahead in 22 seats. Other NDA constituents held leads in five constituencies.

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In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan’s tally remained below expectations. The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), despite large public rallies during campaigning, was ahead in only 32 seats. The Congress held leads in four seats, and the Left Front in six, with others showing no gains.

The numbers suggested a widening gap between the two blocs, overturning earlier assessments of a closely contested election.

Panelists noted that while minor fluctuations were expected, the overall direction of results appeared stable. Official data referenced during the discussion placed the NDA above the two-thirds majority mark when combining the emerging tallies of the BJP, JD(U), LJP-RV and smaller allies.

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In many constituencies where the BJP and JD(U) were leading, their margins continued to rise steadily. Meanwhile, constituencies led by Mahagathbandhan candidates showed narrowing gaps. Updated figures also placed the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) ahead of the Congress at one point in the afternoon.

Vote share patterns presented during the discussion indicated an increase for both the BJP and JD(U), compared to their 2020 performance. Early vote-share estimates showed the BJP rising from 19 per cent to 21 per cent and the JD(U) increasing from 14.9 per cent to 18.9 per cent.

The participants repeatedly noted a sharp contrast between observations from the ground and the outcome indicated by the early counting trends. One of the two direct quotes selected from the discussion reflects this view: “These results do not reflect what was visible on the ground,” said one panelist during the review of the trends.

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The RJD’s drop from its previous 75-seat tally to the significantly lower figures remained a focal point. Despite almost unchanged early vote share indicators, the party’s significantly reduced seat count was described as an unexpected development based strictly on the numerical contrast presented in the discussion.

With the BJP holding the highest number of leads within the alliance, the question of whether the party would claim the chief minister's post surfaced during the panel discussion. Although no official announcements had been made, the discussion referenced that JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar remained central to the alliance’s configuration.

The participants pointed out that the JD(U)’s strong strike rate gave Nitish a substantial influence, even if the BJP’s numbers were higher. Numerical references during the discussion highlighted that the JD(U)’s tally positioned it as a critical component in government formation.

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As noted by a panelist, “The numbers have fallen in such a way that they leave no room for Nitish Kumar to walk out of the alliance.”

The Jan Suraj Party, led by Prashant Kishor, showed no significant gains as counting progressed. Early leads did not translate into confirmed seats. The panel referenced that the party had been expected to face difficulties in winning constituencies, despite its statewide mobilisation efforts.

While its broader impact on political awareness was acknowledged during the discussion, the panelists agreed that the party had not made electoral breakthroughs based on the numbers available during the live programme.

During the broadcast, several Opposition leaders issued early reactions to counting trends. Statements that came up during the discussion included remarks by Sanjay Singh, Pawan Khera, and Akhilesh Yadav, who raised concerns regarding the electoral process.

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These reactions emerged as the NDA’s tallies continued to strengthen, with the panelists noting that updated numbers placed the alliance above 190 seats, with projections suggesting the possibility of crossing 200 in the 243-member Assembly.

Before concluding the session, the panel noted that more definitive results were expected by evening. They said the Election Commission’s final results were likely to be available by around 7 or 8 pm, with the tallies by early afternoon already indicating a strong and stable performance from the NDA.

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