Bihar election analysis : 'This is a negative vote against RJD alliance'

Senior journalist Ashok Mishra, analyst Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, Prof Sanjay Kumar and political editor Puneet Nicholas Yadav joined a special panel discussion to unpack the election trends in Bihar, where the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) stormed to power again. The conversation zeroed in on how the ground narrative, alliance arithmetic, caste-class dynamics and leadership questions converged to shape an unexpected result.

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'What we saw on the ground was different'

Ashok Mishra kicked off by acknowledging the surprising magnitude of the result: “What we saw on the ground … it is a one-and-one contest … such kind of results are … completely unexpectedly.” He admitted that many observers, including himself, had visualised a tight race but now found that the scenario had shifted dramatically in favour of the NDA. This set the tone for the rest of the discussion: an election that began as competitive has morphed into a decisive win.

Mishra also noted that as counting proceeded, the margin of lead for the NDA widened steadily, while the Mahagathbandhan’s leads either stalled or reversed. It was this momentum that turned what appeared to be a close contest into a dominant position for the ruling alliance. The panel agreed that this shift had substantive implications for how political forecasting and ground reports need to be interpreted.

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Prof. Sanjay Kumar chimed in from an academic perspective, saying the result was “very surprising” not just for observers but for parties themselves. He pointed out that despite expectations of an anti-establishment turn—especially with significant increase in votes overall—the outcome endorsed the status quo. He stated: “this was … for the status and in favour of government this is very much clear.”

Where the Grand Alliance struggled

The panel then turned to the structural features of the alliances. Mukhopadhyay argued that the NDA started with an advantage, thanks in part to a broader configuration: inclusion of smaller parties like the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) ensured minimal vote splitting on the ruling side. By contrast, he said the Mahagathbandhan struggled with coordination, stating: “This is not a positive vote for Nitish or for the BJP … it is actually … a negative vote against the RJD-led alliance.”

Mishra said that candidate announcements, campaign clarity and resource deployment all favoured the NDA. He highlighted, for example, the last-minute Rs 10,000 scheme for women advanced by the ruling alliance and contrasted it with the opposition’s promise of Rs 30,000 which, he said, “didn’t work.” According to him, these tactical steps backed up the structural advantage.

Prof. Kumar added nuance by emphasising that caste and class remain entwined in Bihar politics: “I still believe that … this election … was absolutely caste-ridden and now here caste has become a kind of class.” He cautioned against simplistic narratives of post-caste politics, instead suggesting the alignment of social blocs remains central.

Tricky for Nitish?

With the NDA on track for potentially two-thirds majority, the question of leadership within the alliance became salient. Puneet Nicholas Yadav observed that although the BJP recorded high seat numbers, it remains unclear who will assume the chief minister’s post in Bihar. He warned: “Nitish Kumar has now been left with no room to manoeuvre … tomorrow if the BJP turns around … he can’t walk out.”

Mishra supported this insight: for the first time in recent memory, the BJP may emerge as the single largest party in Bihar, shifting internal balance in the alliance. He said: “the BJP independently becoming the single largest party in Bihar … for the first time” heightens the leverage it holds.

Prof. Kumar added that this instability may make the JDU more vulnerable, especially if the BJP chooses to switch partners later. He referenced historical precedents to underline how leadership uncertainty can destabilise alliances even after a victory.

'Women voters played a big role'

The discussion then pivoted to how different voter blocs behaved. Yadav asserted that women voters played a key role in favour of the JDU and NDA: in constituencies with high turnout of women, he said the JDU performed better. He also noted the opposition’s promise of higher cash transfer had failed to convert into votes. He argued that in the face of the NDA’s mobilisation, the opposition’s outreach failed: “they were very vocal … that choice isn’t reflected in the result.”

Mukhopadhyay responded by emphasising organisational strength: he argued that the RJD-Muslim-Yadav axis failed to expand its social base, and the NDA’s organisational machine and ground infrastructure exploited that gap. He claimed the opposition had become complacent, saying “you cannot be a lazy politician … you have to keep on expanding it.”

Prof. Kumar challenged narratives of pure developmental vote: while migration and women’s issues loomed large, he insisted that caste-class alignments remained dominant. He said migrant households did not vote against incumbents as expected, and the women’s turnout factor had complex undercurrents.

What led to RJD's collapse

Turning to the opposition’s performance, the panel offered a stark diagnosis. Mukhopadhyay branded the RJD’s collapse as evidence of its weak organisational base compared to the consolidated structure of the BJP and JDU. He noted the steep fall in seat counts from 75+ to near 30 for the RJD as a sign of deep structural issues.

Yadav highlighted the Congress’s failure to make any significant impact. Despite contesting over 60 seats, he noted at one point the Congress was leading in only four—a tally even lower than smaller regional parties. He argued that standing issues without organisational follow-up failed to convert into votes.

Prof. Kumar reflected on the need for empirical investigation into what went wrong. He pointed out how the result may be declared fair but only over time will deeper questions such as voter inclusion and identity emerge fully.

What are the national Implications?

Finally, the panel addressed what the Bihar outcome signals for national politics. Mukhopadhyay said the NDA’s emphatic performance is likely to strengthen the BJP’s dominance, reduce the bargaining power of alliance partners and establish a new template for state politics. He warned that the opposition must undertake serious introspection.

Yadav agreed that this result challenged conventional readings of ground sentiment and forecast models. Mishra stressed that organisational discipline and machinery mattered more than narrative alone: “you cannot defeat a party which is led by the BJP … without the kind of organisational network.”

Prof. Kumar closed by noting that while this result may seem decisive, political volatility remains. He suggested that leadership outcomes, internal alliance dynamics and systemic surprises may still reshape the landscape before the next election.

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