5 reasons why Nitish-led NDA could face anti-incumbency votes in Bihar

As election day inches closer in Bihar, high anti-incumbency and voter fatigue sentiments hang like the Damocles Sword over the ruling NDA that is looking for a return to power. The state is set to vote in two phases – on November 6 and 11 – with the results expected on November 14.

Media reports note anti-incumbency sentiments among Bihar voters since the 2020 Assembly polls, when the NDA could muster 125 seats against the Mahagathbandhan’s 110 seats, with the RJD winning one seat more than the BJP’s 74 in the 243-member Assembly.

Also read: Unmet promises, rising crime: Why Nalanda is slipping away from Nitish’s grip

Here is a look at the major anti-incumbency issues that could weaken the NDA’s prospects of a win.

1. Nitish's political flip-flops

Having ruled Bihar for almost two decades, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is facing strong anti-incumbency, mostly because of his political flip-flops to stay entrenched in the chief minister’s chair. The longest serving chief minister of Bihar, he took oath on November 24, 2005, and has continued in the post, barring a brief hiatus of nine months between May 2014 and February 2015.

Nitish was once fondly called ‘Sushasan Babu,’ for pulling the state out of the depths of crime and poverty through his crackdown on crime and corruption and stress on a good governance model by improving infrastructure, social welfare, education, and health in the post-Lalu-Rabri era. However, his propensity for jumping alliances for his own benefit has heavily dented his credibility over the years, also earning him another moniker - ‘Paltu Ram’ (turncoat).

Also read: Bihar polls 2025: Why political analysts are wary of making a call on this closely-fought election

In 2005, he formed a stable NDA government in alliance with the BJP, but broke ties with the saffron party in 2013. In 2015, he formed the Grand Alliance along with the RJD and the Congress and returned as chief minister. In 2017, he quit the alliance and went back to the NDA, only to sever ties with it in 2022. In 2024, he left the Mahagathbandhan again to rejoin the NDA. Coupled with Nitish’s political somersaults, voter fatigue with the NDA government is high, with people wanting new faces.

RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav, once Nitish’s deputy, and now the Grand Alliance’s chief ministerial candidate, ticks all boxes despite his family’s ill repute of once having inflicted ‘Jungle Raj’ on the state. Rumours that Nitish, 74, is physically and mentally unwell and is losing his clout amid the NDA with an inner coterie pulling the strings of governance, also make the situation tough.

Also read: How Tejashwi’s pitch for change is getting drowned in flood fury, dissent in RJD citadel

The JD(U) chief also has no succession plan ready and, having built his political career on anti-dynasty credentials, is reluctant to pass on the baton to his son Nishant Kumar despite demands by party leaders.

2. Corruption allegations against ministers

In the run-up to the polls, the Opposition has levelled a barrage of corruption allegations against the Nitish-led NDA government, a move that may steer public opinion.

The most damning of them have come from Jan Suraaj Party leader Prashant Kishor. The political strategist, who recently floated his own party, has accused Cabinet ministers, including Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary and Minister Ashok Choudhary, of widespread graft and called for their resignation.

Kishore has accused Ashok, a JD(U) leader, of acquiring property worth Rs 200 crore in the past three years and of another worth Rs 500 crore through illicit means. He has also claimed that Samrat is an accused in a 1995 murder case and should be arrested immediately instead of serving as deputy chief minister. Kishor says the deputy chief minister, during the trial, had used fake credentials to show himself as a minor and got bail. His election affidavit in 2020, however, proves that he was 26 in 1995 and thus not a minor, claims Kishor.

Also read: NDA double standard: Fielding ‘bahubalis’ while condemning RJD’s ‘jungle raj’

RJD leader Tejashwi too has been harping on his allegations of corruption against the NDA, which he says has been a hindrance in alleviating poverty in the state or improving the condition of farmers. Be it the Rs 1,000 crore Srijan scam, Rs 1,000 crore ambulance scam, multiple bridge collapses – 12 bridges collapsed just in 20 days in 2024 – or the manufacturing and circulation of spurious drugs made in Bihar, an unravelling of a multitude of scams across sectors have only exposed the deep-rooted corruption in governance.

3. Stark poverty

With a Gross State Domestic Product averaging 5.5 per cent (against the national average of 6.1 per cent) between FY13 to FY24, Bihar is still among the poorest states in India. While the state’s bifurcation in 2000 to carve out a separate Jharkhand state cost Bihar its mineral wealth, industrial towns and economically flourishing cities, the Lalu-Rabri government did little to alleviate the situation.

Drastic changes introduced by the NDA government under Nitish in the form of new roads, bridges, electricity, and education have not been fully able to resurrect the state’s fragile economy.

Watch: Nitish Kumar’s video pitch for Bihar polls: Can he turn votes in JD(U)’s favour again?

According to NITI Aayog data from 2022-23, the per capita income of Bihar hovers at Rs 54,000, much below the national average of Rs 1.85 lakh. Even though the state’s poverty ratio has improved – from 50.5 per cent to 25.4 per cent in 2022-23 – structural issues remain. The aayog’s multi-dimensional poverty estimate of 2024 says that Bihar accounts for the maximum number of poor – around 33.76 per cent.

The state is primarily agrarian with 80 per cent of its workforce depending on agriculture (as per the 2011 census). But the picture isn’t rosy as agriculture contributes a paltry 19 per cent to the state’s GSDP and suffers from flood-induced crop damage, small landholdings and outdated practices. Bihar also has a weak industrial base, with the share being a mere 19 per cent of its GSDP (as of 2023). That apart, the state’s literary rate is 61.8 per cent, much lower than the national average of 73 per cent.

4. Curse of unemployment

Despite attempts by the NDA government to create jobs through various schemes, unemployment continues to be a major handicap for the state, driving Bihar’s youth to look for work elsewhere.

A PTI report says that with around 14 lakh first-time voters in the age group of 18.29 years – comprising 1.63 crore people or 22-25 per cent of the electorate – set to cast their ballots this time, many have said that unemployment will be on their priority list while voting the party of their choice.

High reliance on agriculture, low industrialisation, poor educational quality, and a gap between policy creation and implementation have led to the crisis. The Opposition has spared no opportunity in cashing in on the issue and has built its poll campaign narrative on generating jobs for youths if the Grand Alliance comes to power.

The Ministry of Labour and Employment’s 2022-23 survey pegs Bihar’s overall unemployment rate at 3.4 per cent, a little above the national average of 3.2 per cent.

Also read: Why Dularchand Yadav's murder has become a flashpoint of Bihar polls

Data from the Periodic Labour Force Survey also shows that even though the unemployment rate has gone down over the years, one in 10 people in the age group of 15-29 years is still jobless. The survey says that at 10.8 per cent, the unemployment rate among youth is high in Bihar’s urban areas. While the unemployment rate in the said age group was 23 per cent in 2017-18, it rose to 30 per cent in 2018-19, seeing a gradual decline to 18 per cent, 17 per cent, 20 per cent, 14 per cent and 10 per cent in 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23 and 2023-24 respectively.

The catch is that it is not the illiterate but the educated mass that are bearing the brunt of the crisis. According to government data (July 2023-June 2024), the unemployment rate was the highest – 19 per cent – among youth with educational qualifications higher than graduation while only 0.8 per cent who cannot read or write were unemployed.

This despite the Nitish government’s bid at launching financial assistance schemes to help unemployed youth with monthly financial aid and skill development and entrepreneurship programmes to create jobs. The Mukhyamantri Nischay Swayam Sahayata Bhatta Yojana, Bihar Laghu Udyami Yojana, skill training initiative of Kushal Yuva Program, Deen Dayal Upadhyaya Grameen Kaushalya Yojana and Sankalp Yojana are a few to name.

While the employment crisis has increased the rush for government jobs, systemic failures including irregular job postings, delays in exams and frequent paper leaks have left aspirants frustrated. They say they are looking for a government that can strengthen the education system and generate jobs too.

5. Migration still rampant

Acute job scarcity forces around two to three million of Bihar’s 130 million residents to migrate out of the state for low-skill work. Even though the NDA government promised 19 lakh job, it remains unfulfilled. The state ranks second in migration after Uttar Pradesh, with most of the migrants heading to Delhi, Gujarat or Bengaluru for jobs in factories or hospitality sectors.

Watch: Jobs, airports, farm support in Bihar manifesto: Can NDA walk the talk?

Like unemployment, migration has also figured as a touchy poll issue this time with the RJD particularly capitalising on it to pinpoint the NDA government’s failure to stop ‘palayan’ (mass exodus) of Biharis to toil in other states.

“Ek baar Tejashwi ko mauka dekar to dekho. Bihar ke logon ko bahar jane ki jarurat nahi hogi (Just give Tejashwi a chance. The people of Bihar will not need to migrate outside the state),” RJD leader Tejashwi said at a recent poll rally.

He has promised a slew of developmental measures if the Mahagathbandhan comes to power: Opening of factories, industries, SEZ, IT park and food processing units and reopening of shut down jute mills. He has also promised to set up an educational city on 2,000 acres. That apart, the party has promised to give a job to every household and regularise contractual workers.