Bihar polls: Voters still trust Nitish Kumar, jobs and caste shape battlelines

As Bihar votes in the first phase of its high-stakes Assembly election, The Federal’s Political Editor Puneet Nicholas Yadav, who has travelled extensively across the state, explains the ground mood, the complex caste dynamics, and the surprising resilience of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s image despite strong anti-incumbency against local MLAs.

What is your assessment of the ground situation in Bihar as voting begins? Is there enthusiasm among voters?

Certainly. There’s a clear eagerness to vote. This election is interesting at many levels. Over the past several days of travel across Bihar, I sensed both excitement and resentment — people are dissatisfied with several MLAs and with aspects of governance. But what stands out is that despite all this, it’s hard to find anyone who speaks negatively about the Chief Minister.

There’s strong anti-incumbency against local legislators and even some ruling alliance parties, but hardly any desire to see Nitish Kumar replaced. That’s unusual in Indian politics.

On the ground, national narratives don’t quite match reality — in Bihar, everything ultimately comes down to caste equations: which group votes en masse for whom, and where fragmentation happens.

Also read: Bihar polls phase 1: Modi slams RJD's 'jungle raj'; 42.31 pc voter turnout till 1 pm

And some figures who seem prominent in the national conversation, like Prashant Kishor, are virtually absent on the ground. People simply dismiss him. So, yes, it’s an election defined by contradictions and caste arithmetic rather than broad ideological shifts.

There’s been a lot of talk about SIR and voter anxiety. Has it made any real impact?

Not really. Outside of a few districts in Seemanchal — Purnia, Araria, Katihar, and Kishanganj — where Muslims form between 38 per cent and 68 per cent of the population, the SIR issue has faded.

Earlier, when Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav held their Voter Adhikar Yatra, everyone seemed to be talking about it. But now, that anxiety has largely vanished, except in border districts where Narendra Modi’s “ghuspetiya” (infiltrator) narrative still resonates.

Beyond these areas, SIR and related issues have had little electoral effect.

“Vote chori” may be a catchy phrase, but on the ground, people are voting based on local governance, caste, and development — not SIR.

You mentioned Nitish Kumar’s popularity. What other strong sentiments are visible among voters?

Jobs are undoubtedly the biggest issue. Unemployment, the economic situation, and financial distress dominate conversations everywhere.

Tejashwi Yadav’s promise of one government job per household had created a buzz earlier. But people are skeptical about its feasibility — interestingly, the same people who doubt Tejashwi’s promise don’t question the BJP–JD(U) alliance’s recent claim of creating one crore jobs in Bihar.

Also read: RJD, Congress favour infiltrators, dislike Lord Ram due to vote-bank politics: Modi

If Narendra Modi’s 2014 promise of two crore jobs per year for India didn’t materialize, how realistic is one crore jobs for Bihar alone? Still, voters don’t seem to be challenging it.

What’s fascinating is that despite the frustration over unemployment, many still trust Nitish Kumar more than Tejashwi to deliver jobs. Even after two decades in power, Nitish continues to be seen as the safer bet.

Caste loyalties add another layer. Yadavs, who make up over 14 per cent of the population, remain vocal supporters of the RJD and Tejashwi Yadav. But when you go beyond that demographic — into smaller towns and villages — you sense a wider trust in Nitish’s governance. It’s a contradictory but telling picture of Bihar’s politics.

Both NDA and Mahagathbandhan have made big promises to women. How are women voters responding?

The Mukhya Mantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana has made a visible impact. The government’s pre-election disbursal of Rs 10,000 to women across Bihar has worked strongly in the JD(U)’s favour.

I’ll give you an example. In a small makhana (foxnut) processing unit I visited, most workers were women from the Malla and Nishad communities. When asked about the Rs 10,000 payment, they were unequivocal — “We’ll vote for Nitish Kumar because he gave us this money.”

When someone nearby reminded them that it’s a microfinance loan that must be repaid, one woman replied, “Nitish Kumar said we don’t have to repay — so we won’t.” That sentiment was widespread.

This shows how welfare delivery, even if temporary, can consolidate support. In districts like Muzaffarpur, Samastipur, Darbhanga, Purnia, Araria, Katihar, and Khagaria, women seem strongly aligned with Nitish due to this scheme.

Just before polling, Rahul Gandhi held a press conference alleging irregularities in the Haryana polls. Did that have any impact in Bihar?

None that I could see. The timing was off. Most people I met hadn’t even heard of his “H Files” revelations.

Also read: Bihar elections Phase 1: Tejashwi, Samrat in key fights

There’s little appetite in Bihar right now to connect Haryana’s alleged vote manipulation to their own election. The local focus is entirely on jobs, caste, and welfare schemes. Even the media didn’t project Rahul’s press conference in the way such serious allegations deserved.

If the Congress hoped to influence Bihar’s polls with that expose, it hasn’t worked — at least not in the first phase.

What kind of outcome or trends do you expect from this phase of voting?

With 50 per cent of Bihar voting in this phase, the results could be decisive. Both the NDA and Grand Alliance have strengths across different districts, so the outcome may not be immediately clear.

But what’s certain is that this election might surprise many. The mood on the ground is complex — Nitish Kumar’s quiet goodwill, Tejashwi Yadav’s energetic challenge, and a deeply caste-based voter base make this one of Bihar’s most fascinating electoral battles in years.

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