Bihar's rebel factor: Why expelled leaders could tilt a closely fought election

With seat-sharing agreements and ticket distribution causing widespread unrest within the dominant political formations of Bihar – the ruling NDA and the Opposition’s Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) - constituents of both blocs are now on a sacking spree.

Over the past week, the BJP, the JD-U and the RJD have all expelled dozens of leaders, including sitting and former legislators, suspected of sabotaging their poll campaign and others who have dared to formally rebel against their respective party’s choice of candidates and entered the poll fray as independents.

Also read: Modi slams RJD, Congress for ‘insulting Chhathi Maiya’, hints rift in Opposition

Given that the two-phase election, due on November 6 and November 11, is widely expected to be as closely fought as the previous one, with victory margins being slender, the widespread expulsions across the two alliances have added another layer of intrigue to the poll battle.

Rebels could upset calculations

Sources in both NDA and the Grand Alliance concede that the presence of a large number of rebels in the electoral ring could upset their calculations, especially when the forthcoming election also marks the debut of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj with no political formation certain of whose votes the fledgling party would chip away.

For the two alliances, the sacking spree isn’t without its own risks. While it does weed out dissenters from the ranks, it could just as well also alienate supporters, especially if the sacked leader is either contesting as an independent or worse, enjoys the clout of a formidable caste group whose claim on a seat has been denied.

The BJP, which ordinarily allows dissenters to stew in their unease over a party decision, too, has been forced to expel over 15 leaders, including incumbent Kahalgaon MLA Pawan Kumar Yadav, after attempts by none other than Union Home Minister Amit Shah to douse fires failed. The saffron party’s ally, chief minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal-United, which has been witnessing a churn of myriad hues – ranging from discord over the party being “captured by a BJP lobby” to unease over ceding its traditional seats to allies – has sacked 16 leaders. For the Opposition’s RJD, the list of sacked leaders has 27 names while its ally, the Congress, has, thus far, chosen not to act against dissenters despite being rocked with raucous protests by members openly accusing the state and central leadership of “selling tickets”.

Amit Shah ‘failed to convince disgruntled lot’

“There are some 15 leaders we have expelled for anti-party activities,” a BJP leader from Bihar told The Federal. Besides Pawan Kumar, the party has also expelled four-term Paroo MLA Ashok Kumar Singh.

Also read: Bihar polls: Grand Alliance joint campaign takes off, unease remains

Singh’s constituency of Paroo was allocated to BJP ally Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) of Upendra Kushwaha in the NDA’s seat-sharing deal and he is now contesting the polls as an independent candidate against the RLM’s Madan Chaudhary, who had finished a distant fourth in the constituency in the 2020 election, polling just 7,281 votes against Singh’s winning figure of 77,392 votes.

Sources within the Bihar BJP unit told The Federal that Amit Shah, who has been overseeing the party’s campaign, “failed to convince the disgruntled lot”. “Shah held a meeting with them (rebel leaders) at a private hotel in Patna. However, they were adamant on their decision (of contesting as independents or opposing the official NDA candidate),” said a source.

In some cases, BJP sources said, the party was forced to act against its dissenters under pressure from allies, hinting that such individuals, particularly those contesting as independents and expected to win, could be brought back into the party fold after the results to bump up the BJP’s seat tally.

The expulsion spree started with the JD-U showing the door to 16 of its leaders. The list included former minister Shailesh Kumar, former MLAs Shyam Bahadur Singh and Sudarshan Kumar, and former legislative council members Sanjay Prasad and Ranvijay Singh.

Most surprising expulsion from JD-U

The most surprising expulsion from the JD-U’s ranks, however, has been that of staunch Nitish Kumar supporter Gopal Mandal, who has been the party’s undefeated Gopalpur MLA for four terms since 2005 but was denied a ticket this time as the party chose to field its recent RJD import Bulo Mandal. Gopal had famously sat on a protest outside Nitish’s official Aney Marg residence in Patna when news of him being denied a ticket became public and was also booked for disrupting public order.

Also read: Bihar polls: Upper castes dominate as parties mostly retain 2020 caste mix in seat allocation

Citing the denial of a ticket and subsequent sacking of Gopal as an example, leaders from the JD-U’s old guard told The Federal that the expulsion of at least some party leaders smacked of the palace intrigues playing out within the party for some time now.

“There are people in JD-U who, in their loyalty, are 100 per cent with the BJP but have been posing as loyalists of Nitish. If given an opportunity, they would merge JD-U into the BJP tomorrow,” said a disgruntled JD-U leader who claimed that it was this “BJP lobby” within his party that was instrumental in getting several Nitish loyalists expelled by misleading the ailing chief minister that these individuals were working against party interests.

RJD expels 27 leaders

Days after the JD-U sacked its 16 leaders, the RJD too followed suit. The party has expelled 27 leaders for “anti-party activities”. Interestingly, some of those expelled, like the party’s sitting MLA from Parsa, Chhote Lal Rai had already defected to the JD-U or other NDA constituents weeks before the expulsion orders came in. Rai, a three-term MLA from Parsa, has been fielded from the seat by his former party, the JD-U (two of his three MLA terms were as a JD-U legislator), against the RJD’s Karishma Kumari.

Among others expelled by the RJD is also its sitting Gobindpur MLA Mohammad Kamran, who had won the 2020 election by an impressive margin of over 33,000 votes, but was replaced by the party this time around with Purnima Yadav. Kamran is now contesting the polls as an independent. Former RJD legislators Ram Prakash Mahto, Anil Sahani, Saroj Yadav and Anil Yadav, as well as former MLC Ganesh Bharti, have also been ousted by the party.