Is the Grand Alliance losing momentum ahead of Bihar election?
Seat-sharing talks stall, “friendly fights” multiply, and confusion grows in Bihar’s grand alliance. Can leaders fix it before withdrawals?
In this episode of Capital Beat, panellists Ashok Mishra and Faizan Ahmed examined the unresolved seat-sharing in Bihar’s Mahagathbandhan as nominations closed for the first phase of assembly polls. Both highlighted overlapping nominations by allies, multiple candidate lists, and the risk of intra-alliance contests before the withdrawal deadline.
The discussion opened with the status of nominations for the first phase covering 121 seats and the overall House strength of 243. Talks on seat adjustments for the remaining 122 seats in the second phase were described as ongoing. The panel addressed the Mahagathbandhan constituents—RJD, Congress, CPI(ML), CPI(M), CPI, and Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP)—and the unresolved claims on a dozen-plus constituencies.
“Till today, this alliance has failed to come out with its final list of candidates for the 243 assembly constituencies,” Faizan Ahmed stated, calling the situation “a great confusion” for both parties and voters.
Also read: Why NDA fielded only 5 Muslim faces in Bihar elections
Overlapping nominations and ‘friendly fights’
The panel detailed how both RJD and Congress put up candidates on the same seats in places such as Vaishali and Lalganj. The Congress list covered 48 candidates and named additional constituencies, including Kahalgaon, Pranpur, Jale, Chanpur, and Gaya Town. The RJD’s claim on Kahalgaon was cited as a continuing point of contention.
“There are at least nine to ten constituencies where allies are facing each other. How is it friendly when there is a contest?” Faizan Ahmed remarked, describing the term “friendly contest” as misleading.
He pointed to voter confusion created by parallel symbols and late announcements: “Voters are totally confused who is the candidate of the Mahagathbandhan—whether it is Congress, RJD, VIP or the Left.”
NDA timeline versus alliance delays
Ashok Mishra contrasted Mahagathbandhan delays with the NDA, noting that the latter had finalised seat numbers and candidates earlier despite “initial confusion.” He emphasised the importance of the withdrawal deadline (October 20) for the first phase to avoid clashes among allies.
“Only saving grace will be when, on the 20th, they arrive at a consensus and force constituents to withdraw their candidates,” Ashok Mishra said, adding that otherwise intra-alliance contests could weaken the bloc’s prospects.
He underlined that while second-phase nominations were still open, persistent indecision risked “a delayed start” to an organised campaign on the Mahagathbandhan side.
Also read: Bihar polls: CPI(ML) Liberation names 20 candidates, renominates 12 MLAs
Numbers in contention and bargaining
On tentative seat distributions, Ashok Mishra cited an understanding taking shape: RJD around 135, Congress about 60–61, CPI(ML) 18–19, CPI 6, and CPI(M) 4, with potential minor adjustments. He added that VIP had secured 15 seats after “hard bargaining.”
“There was initial confusion on the number of seats and who would be the candidates. Even today, several seats remain unsettled,” he noted, describing multiple claimants on single constituencies across parties.
The panel referenced claims by Congress that its organisational mood had improved after national-level mobilisations, leading to a higher seat demand compared with previous elections.
VIP’s role and leadership schedules
The programme noted that VIP’s position evolved alongside Congress and Left negotiations. Ashok Mishra pointed to Mukesh Sahani’s rounds of talks and several Congress CEC meetings, saying these contributed to the timeline drift.
“Leaders should have sat together for a couple of days and sorted out differences. They failed on that front, which is reflected in today’s confusion,” he observed.
Scheduling gaps—such as leaders being away during crucial windows—were cited as contributing factors, extending uncertainty close to nomination and withdrawal cut-offs.
Also read: Bihar elections: Over 1,250 file nominations for 1st phase on Nov 6
Responsibility for delays and a rare nomination episode
Faizan Ahmed argued that the RJD, as the largest partner, bore primary responsibility for the delays. He referred to early symbol distribution by Lalu Prasad Yadav and subsequent rollbacks when Tejashwi Yadav intervened.
“RJD distributed symbols much before seat-sharing was finalised, then asked candidates not to file nominations. This is the height of confusion,” Faizan Ahmed said.
He highlighted a rare occurrence in Alamnagar, where one candidate, Naveen Kumar, filed nominations on two party symbols—RJD and VIP—illustrating the unusual extent of overlap in the alliance’s paperwork.
Effect on voter perception and momentum
The panel discussed the impact on voter perceptions in constituencies facing unclear candidate line-ups. Faizan Ahmed stated that delayed announcements had “sent a wrong message to voters,” particularly where supporters were unsure which ally’s nominee to back.
He linked the confusion to multiple lists and late confirmations: “They don’t know who is the official candidate. It is still very confusing.”
Ashok Mishra said any advantage gained by Mahagathbandhan during recent state-wide mobilisation had dimmed: “It will be a delayed start for the alliance to go to the people straightaway.”
Also read: Bihar polls: Congress names 48 candidates in first list
Comparing coalition cohesion and deadlines ahead
While acknowledging that the NDA also saw early disagreements among Jitan Ram Manjhi, Upendra Kushwaha, and Chirag Paswan, Ashok Mishra noted that they “arrived at a consensus and declared their seats and candidates,” which put them ahead on procedure.
He reiterated that withdrawal dates—20th for the first phase and 23rd/24th for the second—would be decisive in preventing intra-alliance fights from RJD–Congress–Left–VIP.
“If by the last date of withdrawal they sort out the differences and there is no friendly fight among them in any constituency, it’s fine. Otherwise, the alliance risks losing the gains of the last two to three months,” Ashok Mishra said.
Also read: Amid seat-sharing dilemma, Congress leaders name Tejashwi as Grand Alliance’s CM Face
“This confusion has already created problems for voters,” Faizan Ahmed said, urging timely resolution before withdrawals.
“Leaders should have sorted out differences earlier. The current state is a reflection of that failure,” Ashok Mishra concluded, pointing to the narrow window remaining to consolidate the alliance’s position on the ground.
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