Bihar power puzzle: BJP silence fuels uncertainty over Nitish Kumar’s future

In this episode of Capital Beat, panellists Faizan Ahmed and Gautam Sarkar assessed the unfolding uncertainty in Bihar and outlined the key challenges facing Chief Minister Nitish Kumar after the NDA’s landslide win.

Silence in BJP camp over leadership issue

Despite the NDA securing a sweeping mandate, reports suggest that no senior BJP leader, including ministers and deputy chief ministers, visited Nitish Kumar after the results. Faizan said there was “strange silence” in the BJP camp on the question of leadership, noting that even the schedule of the legislature party meeting had not been declared.

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He stated that Chirag Paswan had met Nitish Kumar earlier in the day, but “what transpired between them is not clear.” He added that BJP leaders in Patna had already begun saying that “the time has come that BJP will have its own government and its own chief minister.”

Faizan also pointed to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s remark at the BJP headquarters, where he referenced “Sushasan Bihar”, a phrase often associated with Nitish Kumar. However, he cautioned that this should not be read as an endorsement of Nitish’s continuation, given the growing chorus within the BJP for leadership change.

Possibility of BJP forming its own govt

Faizan noted that the silence from the BJP indicated a growing possibility that the party was assessing whether it could form its own government. He said that the legislature party meetings of both the BJP and JDU were likely to take place in the coming days, followed by a joint NDA meeting where a final decision on the chief minister would be made.

He explained that the NDA legislature party meeting would determine its leader, who will be the chief minister. He assessed that it might take a few more days for clarity to emerge after all NDA constituents held their separate meetings.

When asked if the BJP was using this time to gather internal support for installing its own chief minister, Faizan said that this remained a possibility given the party’s post-election posture in Patna.

Nitish’s challenges despite strong numbers

Gautam Sarkar outlined the challenges facing Nitish Kumar, despite the sharp numerical rise in JDU’s tally. He recalled that in 2020, JDU had fewer MLAs, yet the BJP accepted Nitish as the leader of the ruling alliance. In the current scenario, he pointed to what he termed a leadership gap within the BJP.

He observed that “there is a leadership crisis in the BJP camp” and emphasised Nitish’s long-standing stature. He stated that “this mandate is jointly for BJP and JDU”, and voters had also supported Nitish as an individual leader.

Gautam added that the BJP appeared to be “waiting for Nitish to approach like he did it in 2020”, suggesting that the party had not settled on a clear successor. He also warned that removing Nitish right away “would spell trouble for the BJP”, triggering organisational and electoral risks.

Search for a potential BJP CM face

Faizan stated that, unlike in past elections, neither the prime minister nor the Union home minister had projected Nitish as the chief ministerial face this time. He noted that the BJP has emerged as the single largest party with 89 seats, while JDU has secured 85.

Despite this, Faizan asserted that “not a single name is being discussed in the political circles right now” as a possible BJP chief minister. He recalled that the BJP usually selected chief ministers “from anybody from the party ranks,” citing examples from Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Odisha.

Faizan said that though Samrat Chaudhary, the current deputy chief minister, could be upgraded, the BJP had “not opened its card” and was conscious of Nitish’s considerable political heft. He noted that Nitish had doubled his tally from the last election, making it “very difficult to sideline him in any case.”

Nitish’s shrinking manoeuvring room

Faizan highlighted that Nitish Kumar’s options outside the NDA were currently constrained. He explained that the Mahagathbandhan’s numbers were inadequate to support him as the chief minister.

He also pointed out that the BJP-led alliance, even with LJP, HAM, and RLP, could not reach the majority mark without JDU. This, he said, meant that both sides had limited alternatives, and the BJP must “keep Nitish in good humour.”

Faizan added that Nitish’s health and the pressure of governing Bihar for two decades were additional factors. He said that Nitish’s next move was “very difficult to predict” at this point.

Speculation over BJP’s treatment of Nitish

On whether replacing Nitish would be humiliating for him, Faizan said the BJP leadership would “manage to handle this situation” without embarrassment. He noted ongoing political chatter that Nitish could be shifted to a “very big post”, with some even suggesting that it could be the President of India.

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Though Faizan stressed that these discussions were circulating in political circles, he maintained they reflected possible pathways being considered for Nitish outside the state government.

Gautam added that Nitish had always been “a seasoned and mature politician”. He cautioned that removing Nitish abruptly would carry consequences for the BJP as well, remarking that “Newton’s third law will apply to the party, too.”

Concerns over governance continuity

Gautam argued that several policies implemented over the past two decades, including prohibition, are central to Nitish Kumar’s governance model. He said that if the BJP “manages to sideline Nitish, his policies will automatically be undone,” which could have significant implications for the state’s functioning.

He reiterated that the BJP was weighing whether any leader within its ranks could match Nitish Kumar’s stature. He added that the delay in decision-making reflected the party’s internal search for “who could replace him.”

Gautam acknowledged that the BJP could offer Nitish a larger role, but cautioned that “once he is removed from Bihar, the JDU may not remain intact.”

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