'As Nitish, Tejashwi face off, caste, women’s voting to determine Bihar poll result' | Capital Beat

Campaigning for the first phase of the 2025 Bihar Assembly election ended on Wednesday (November 5) across 121 constituencies in 18 districts. A total of 1,314 candidates are in the fray, including 122 women. The Election Commission (EC) has confirmed that 3.75 crore voters will cast their ballots in this phase on November 6.

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, and the Mahagathbandhan, led by Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Prasad Yadav, are locked in a close fight. Senior journalist Ashok Mishra, participating in The Federal’s Capital Beat discussion, described the contest as “a battle evenly poised between the two alliances.”

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Mishra noted that the Mahagathbandhan, which had a slight edge in the 2020 Assembly election across these 121 seats, is attempting to retain its base while expanding its support among caste groups that previously leaned towards the NDA.

Shifts in regional strength, voter alignment

North Bihar remains a critical battleground for the Janata Dal (United), which is seeking to hold on to its strongholds and recover lost ground in South Bihar, where it performed poorly in the previous election. The BJP, which had also lost key seats in Patna and Magadh regions last time, is banking on a renewed push from top national leaders.

Both alliances have focused their campaigns on welfare promises and caste-based mobilisation. “There are no other dominant issues except for welfare freebies and caste affiliations,” Mishra observed.

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He added that Nitish Kumar’s strategic selection of candidates and targeted outreach in northern constituencies reflect the NDA’s effort to consolidate its position. The BJP’s campaign strength lies in its central leadership’s active participation, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath leading major rallies.

Eye on women voters

A central theme in the first-phase campaign has been the contest over women voters. Tejashwi Yadav’s announcement of a ₹30,000 cash transfer for women, to be distributed on Makar Sankranti if elected, has drawn significant attention. This follows the NDA government’s recent release of ₹10,000 each to Jeevika Didi beneficiaries.

Nitish Kumar’s long-term investment in women’s empowerment through the Jeevika network has been a key electoral advantage. However, analysts note that the opposition’s larger cash promise could create a new dynamic among women voters.

Mishra said, “Women have traditionally supported Nitish Kumar, but Tejashwi’s announcement of ₹30,000 may divide this vote base, especially among extremely backward caste women.”

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This emerging split within women voters could prove decisive in several constituencies, particularly in areas like Danapur and Patna rural belt, where RJD’s influence has historically been strong.

Caste a dominant factor

Despite aggressive campaigning and promises, the electoral discourse in Bihar continues to revolve around caste arithmetic. Extremely backward castes (EBCs), who form a major segment of Jeevika beneficiaries, have been Nitish Kumar’s reliable support base. However, upper-caste and OBC women are showing signs of shifting allegiance.

Mishra pointed out that “household-level voting patterns continue to determine outcomes, with both male and female members often voting for the same party.” The contest thus hinges on the extent to which either alliance can influence entire family units rather than individual voters.

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While Nitish Kumar’s social engineering remains intact, RJD’s youth-focused narrative and job promise appear to resonate among younger voters, especially those impacted by migration and unemployment.

Polarised campaign rhetoric

The final leg of campaigning witnessed several high-decibel statements from top BJP leaders. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s remarks linking opposition leaders with “katta and kanpati” and Amit Shah’s “Italy current” comment drew sharp attention across social media and political circles. Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath also targeted the opposition with jibes referring to “Apu and Pappu.”

Mishra described these as unnecessary diversions, noting that “such statements reflect frustration within the BJP’s top leadership.” He said the Mahagathbandhan leaders, including Lalu Prasad Yadav and Rahul Gandhi, have largely refrained from responding in kind.

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The BJP has also revived the “jungle raj” narrative targeting the RJD, though Mishra stated that the phrase no longer resonates as it once did. The narrative, once potent in 2005 and 2010, now finds limited traction among younger voters who view issues like employment, education, and corruption as more pressing.

Smaller parties, voter deletions add uncertainty

The entry of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party has introduced a new variable. Kishor’s focus on unemployment, migration, and poor health services has gained visibility, but Mishra observed that while the party has built recognition, it is unlikely to make major electoral gains this time.

He explained, “Kishor’s message appeals to young and urban voters, but Bihar’s voting behavior is still strongly rooted in caste loyalties.” Nonetheless, Jan Suraaj's presence could marginally dent the vote shares of both alliances in some constituencies.

Watch: Nitish Kumar’s video pitch for Bihar polls: Can he turn votes in JD(U)’s favour again?

Meanwhile, reports of deleted voter names under the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls have caused discontent in several districts. While many corrections have been made, a few lakh voters reportedly remain disenfranchised. Mishra noted that around 2.5 lakh names were deleted earlier, though no specific constituency-wise data is available yet.

Count down begins

With campaigning now over, both alliances are preparing for a direct face-off across the 121 seats voting on November 6. The NDA’s hopes rest on Nitish Kumar’s governance record and women’s outreach, while the Mahagathbandhan banks on Tejashwi's promises of jobs and cash transfers.

Also read: Why Dularchand Yadav's murder has become a flashpoint of Bihar polls

The contest remains evenly balanced, with caste alignments, women’s voting patterns, and last-minute mobilisation likely to determine outcomes in this crucial opening phase of the Bihar election.

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