Bihar polls: How geological, cultural divides shape state’s economy and votes

One of the most populous states in India is about to go to polls soon. The first phase of voting is on November 6 and the second on November 11.

While, according to the last national census in 2011, Bihar was the third most populous state with 10.4 crore people, unofficial estimates suggest it is likely to be the second most populous by now, with more than 13 crore people.

To the rest of the country, Biharis may seem like one humongous mass, painted in one brush stroke. But the state, like all others, comprises distinct regions, with their own cultures, languages, and intricate and shifting caste dynamics and political alliances.

Administrative, geological, and cultural subdivisions in Bihar

Most of Bihar — barring a small mountainous (Shivalik) region in northwest and a broader plateau region in the south — comprises the vast Gangetic plains. The southern plateau region primarily includes the districts of Kaimur, Rohtas, Banka, Jamui, Munger, Gaya, Nawada, and Aurangabad.

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The vast Gangetic plains are further divided into North and South Bihar Plains, with the river cutting the state horizontally through the middle into two halves. Of the two, the North Bihar plains are more prone to flooding than the narrower, triangular-shaped South Bihar plains.

Bihar is divided into nine administrative divisions too. Tirhut (headquarters: Muzaffarpur), Saran (headquarters: Chapra), Darbhanga (headquarters: Darbhanga), Kosi (headquarters: Saharsa), and Purnia (headquarters: Purnia) divisions roughly comprise North Bihar. Patna (headquarters: Patna), Magadh (headquarters: Gaya), Munger (headquarters: Munger), and Bhagalpur (headquarters: Bhagalpur) account for South Bihar.

And then, there are further distinctions based on cultural subregions like Mithilanchal, Bhojpur, Magadh, and Seemanchal.

Demographic and economic distinctions

These regional differences have given rise to distinct demographic and economic landscapes, too. North Bihar is more densely populated than the southern districts, with the districts along the Ganga having a higher density.

A vast, fertile alluvial plains of North Bihar are highly vulnerable to floods, especially from the Kosi and the Gandak. While these rivers nourish an agrarian economy, they often cause widespread destruction and displacement too.

Recurrent floods and limited local opportunities also lead to a high rate of out-migration for employment from this region, especially among the youth. The North Bihar plains largely account for the Mithilanchal cultural sub-region, which is also the one with the largest concentration of seats for the dominant political parties.

South Bihar, on the other hand, is generally less prone to severe flooding and has a better irrigation base in some areas, leading to more stable agricultural output. Population density is comparatively lower, with development centred around state capital Patna, which has led to better infrastructure and a relatively higher per-capita income.

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South Bihar largely includes the Magadh region and the southern half of the Bhojpur region. The Magadh region, which encompasses districts like Gaya and Aurangabad, is historically known for being affected by Naxalite movements and having a poor industrial and irrigation base. It is also prone to droughts.

Regional inequalities are a significant factor in Bihar’s politics. The concentration of development in the southern Patna region, while other areas face issues like floods and Maoist threat, creates resentment and is a recurring political issue.

Caste distribution across regions

Caste is a dominant factor in Bihar’s politics. The success of any political party or alliance depends heavily on its ability to forge a winning combination of caste groups.

For instance, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) — currently in the Opposition Mahagathbandhan or Grand Alliance with the Congress and other parties — has traditionally relied on a Muslim-Yadav vote bank, while the ruling NDA, comprising the JD(U) and the BJP, have worked to create a broader coalition of different castes.

According to the 2022 caste-based survey in the state, there are significant regional variations in caste composition. The Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) and Other Backward Classes (OBCs) together constitute over 63 per cent of the state’s population and have a strong presence across regions.

The districts along the banks of the Ganga have a higher concentration of OBCs and Scheduled Tribes (STs), while the majority of Scheduled Castes (SCs) population resides in the non-Ganga-bank districts.

How the regions affect politics

The politics of Bihar are significantly shaped by its demographics and geography, with a distinct divide between North and South Bihar.

North Bihar — which largely includes Mithilanchal — is a major political battleground that accounts for 140 of the 243 assembly seats. Political control over this region is critical for winning the state elections.

The region is a stronghold for parties representing OBCs, which includes both the RJD (Yadavs) and its rival, the JD(U) (Nitish Kumar belongs to Kurmi caste). The BJP also has its own pockets of strength in North Bihar but it is mostly South Bihar that is considered its stronghold.

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The Seemanchal region, located in the northeastern part of Bihar bordering West Bengal, is a Muslim-dominated zone that has seen the rise of parties like the AIMIM, which have managed to win seats by appealing to the minority community. Seemanchal includes the districts of Purnia, Araria, Katihar, and Kishanganj.

Divisional differences

Coming to the administrative divisions, most have a mixed bag of supporters for the RJD and the BJP-JD(U) combo. In Tirhut division, the Champaran districts (East and West) have shown strong support for the NDA, particularly the BJP. The Muzaffarpur region has a strong base of support for OBC-affiliated parties, with the RJD and its allies being very active.

Saran is considered a traditional stronghold of the RJD and its leader, Lalu Prasad. However, the BJP has made significant inroads in recent years. In Darbhanga, the BJP and JD(U) have a strong presence, but the RJD also holds significant influence due to its caste-based support.

The flood-prone Kosi region is generally a JD(U) stronghold, though the RJD retains influence. Purnia, particularly its Muslim-majority areas, has seen significant support for the RJD and the Congress. Yet, the BJP has been steadily increasing its presence in the division, which entirely comprises the Seemanchal subcultural region.

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Patna division is a core stronghold of the NDA, while the Munger region is politically competitive, with no single party or alliance dominating. The BJP, JD(U), and RJD all vie for influence, often with differing results in consecutive elections. Bhagalpur is a key region for the BJP and JD(U), but the RJD and its allies also hold sway in certain areas.

The Magadh region has a complex political history. While the NDA has significant support, the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation, a Mahagathbandhan ally, has a strong base here, especially among the extremely backward classes and marginalized communities.