BJP storms to power in Delhi with ‘helping hand’ from Congress, AAP rebels

The BJP on Saturday (February 8) scripted history, clinching a splendid victory in Delhi Assembly elections and staging a historic return to power in the national capital after a hiatus of 27 years.

The BJP’s triumph in Delhi is also special because the national capital was the only region in north India where the party enjoyed a considerable organisational strength yet it was unable to convert it into political success.

Also read: Delhi elections | Five reasons why AAP and Kejriwal bit the dust

Interestingly, the Congress and the AAP rebels also "contributed" to the BJP's triumph, as there are over a dozen constituencies where the Congress polled more number of votes than the BJP's victory margin. Moreover, there are several constituencies, where AAP rebels switched loyalty to the BJP ahead of polls, and the saffron party ended up winning them.

Big AAP faces bite dust

The victory in the Delhi Assembly polls turned a bit sweeter for the BJP because it not just returned to power but the party was also able to defeat AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal and former Deputy CM Manish Sisodia. To make matters worse for the AAP, some of its top ministers and leaders like Saurabh Bharadwaj, Satyendra Jain, Rakhi Birla, Somnath Bharti also faced defeat in their respective Assembly segments.

With nearly 45.7 per cent votes in Delhi, the BJP won 47 seats, marking a historic comeback in the national capital because this is the highest vote share of the BJP in more than two decades. While the BJP managed to get more than 54 per cent votes in Delhi during the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the real challenge for the party was to retain its voter base in the Assembly polls. The BJP’s victory may not seem surprising in light of the fact that the party won in 58 out of the 70 Assembly segments in Delhi in the Lok Sabha elections just eight months ago.

BJP breaks the jinx

“Prime Minister Narendra Modi and all senior BJP leaders often asked as to why the party was unable to retain its vote share in Delhi when it comes to the Assembly elections. The BJP had been winning all the Lok Sabha constituencies of Delhi since 2014, yet we were able to not repeat the same performance in the Delhi Assembly polls. The AAP has suffered in Delhi because of the corruption allegations. Moreover, our victory also shows that you cannot win the elections all the time by making false promises,” a senior BJP leader from Delhi told The Federal.

Senior BJP leaders believe that while the AAP came to power on the promise of transparency and providing a corruption-free government, the bribery allegations against Kejriwal and all those associated with him resulted in their party’s downfall.

AAP rebels spoil the party

The BJP has virtually dominated almost all the pockets of the national capital and has even managed to make inroads in the Scheduled Caste reserved seats.

Out of the 12 reserved seats in Delhi that were considered to be the AAP stronghold, the BJP was able to win at least 4 seats. The party has also won 18 out of the 23 seats that share the border with Haryana and Uttar Pradesh.

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The BJP’s performance in the Delhi polls also got a boost due to rebel AAP leaders. The impact of these turncoats can be understood from the fact that out of the 15 constituencies, from where AAP rebels had joined the BJP just before the polls, the party won 12 in these elections.

Though most of the rebel AAP leaders who joined the BJP did not get ticket, former AAP minister Kailash Gahlot, who too joined the BJP before the polls, not only managed to win from his new constituency, Bijwasan, but also ensured that the BJP won the Najafgarh seat which was his original constituency.

Massive anti-incumbency

“There was a huge anti-incumbency against the AAP. People realised that the AAP government was making false promises and it was not able to deliver on the assurances made to the financially weaker sections. The BJP also benefited from the decision of the Union government to give income tax cut to those earning below Rs 12 lakh. We have promised the people that we will not just continue with all the populist schemes but will improve them. It is for this reason that BJP has won in a constituency like Mustafabad which has a large Muslim population,” RP Singh, national spokesperson of BJP, told The Federal.

The BJP has also managed to win New Delhi and RK Puram constituencies, which have a sizable number of government servants.

The Congress factor

While the BJP has managed to increase its vote share considerably, the party also got a little help from the Congress in its journey to return to power in Delhi.

Interestingly, there are over a dozen constituencies in Delhi where the Congress received more votes than the winning margin of the BJP. In most of the constituencies, there was a direct contest between the BJP and the AAP, but the Congress managed to mark its presence by polling more votes than the winning margin.

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The biggest example is the high-profile New Delhi Assembly seat where AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal lost to BJP’s Parvesh Verma by 4,089 votes, while Congress candidate Sandeep Dikshit managed to get 4,568 votes. Similarly, former Deputy CM Manish Sisodia lost by 675 votes to BJP’s Tarvinder Singh Marwah in Jangpura constituency where the Congress candidate bagged 7,350 votes.

Too early to write off AAP

Political analysts, however, believe that despite a massive defeat for AAP in Delhi it will be too early to write off the party.

“It seems that the AAP has been completely dislodged by the BJP in Delhi because BJP won 48 seats while AAP got just 22, down from the 62 seats it won in 2020 polls. However, the AAP still managed to have 43.6 per cent vote share in Delhi as compared to BJP’s 45.88 per cent. The vote share of Congress also improved from 4 per cent in the 2020 to nearly 7 per cent in these elections. The vote share of AAP suggests that it is too early to say that the party is completely decimated in Delhi,” Sanjay Kumar, co-director Lokniti CSDS, told The Federal.